(Fighting against New Crown Pneumonia) Liu Shijin: China's economy may shift to a long-term "war epidemic growth" model
China News Agency, Beijing, April 21 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said at an online forum on the 21st that in view of the great uncertainty in the international epidemic, the Chinese economy will have to To adapt to and adapt to this reality: that is, to shift from the conventional growth model to the "war epidemic growth" model for a long period of time.
The "Symposium on Macroeconomic Situation and Reform Trends in 2020" hosted by the China Economic System Reform Research Society was held on the same day. Liu Shijin said here that this sharp economic downturn was due to an unexpected super external shock, not a problem within the economy. Therefore, economic recovery depends on two factors, one is the duration of the epidemic, and the other is the degree of impaired production capacity.
Liu Shijin said that to stabilize growth at this stage, first and foremost is to stabilize consumption, especially household consumption, which is the largest contribution to economic growth. If this "big head" is not stable, the economy as a whole will not be stable. Investment, especially infrastructure investment, has become a "small head," and relying on the "small head" cannot hold the overall picture.
Regarding the "war epidemic growth model", Liu Shijin explained that the salient feature of this growth model is the need to pay a "war epidemic discount cost", that is, to continue to devote some resources to internal anti-rebound and external defense input, It is difficult for the economy to operate at full capacity and achieve a potential growth rate.
Therefore, he proposed that the assessment of growth targets should be adjusted accordingly. It is recommended to adopt the “relative growth rate” assessment method, which is to use the ratio or difference between China ’s growth rate and the world ’s average growth rate to assess the growth of the Chinese economy. Taking the difference as an example, the average growth rate of the world economy in 2019 is 2.9%, China is 6.1%, and the relative growth rate is 3.2%; if the world growth rate is -2.5% in 2020, China is 3%, the relative growth rate is 5.5% , Is higher than last year.
Regarding the setting of growth targets, Liu Shijin suggested that the “central requirements be raised and local targets be raised”. The national level can propose growth target requirements, but does not propose quantitative growth indicators. The provincial government proposes quantitative growth indicators. The advantage is that all localities proceed from reality and do not have a one-size-fits-all approach, fully mobilizing the initiative of various provinces and introducing local competition.
Regarding the issue of how to deliver aid resources, Liu Shijin said that where to invest is more important than what to invest. In fact, regardless of consumption and investment, there is potential. Substantially deepening reform is the best stimulus policy. He suggested that the reform of the factor market promote the construction of the metropolitan area and form a "new outlet" for China's economic growth. (Finish)