China-Singapore latitude and longitude photo

  China-Singapore Jingwei client, April 20 (Wei Wei Xue Yufei) The April LPR quotation was released. The quotations for the 1-year and 5-year periods and above were the biggest monthly decline since the central bank reformed and improved the LPR formation mechanism in August 2019. Among them, 1-year varieties reported 3.85%, last time 4.05%, down 20 basis points; varieties over 5 years reported 4.65%, last time 4.75%, down 10 basis points.

  Many analysts predict that the one-year LPR cut by 20 basis points will help further reduce the financing cost of the real economy. The reduction of LPR for more than 5 years has stimulated the demand of the real estate market to a certain extent and reduced the pressure of mortgage repayment. The loan of 1 million yuan is expected to reduce the repayment by 62 yuan per month compared with the previous one. However, the asymmetric lowering again released a signal that the real estate regulation was not relaxed.

The largest monthly decline and the second asymmetric downward adjustment

  The current one-year and more than five-year LPR reductions are the largest single drop since the launch in August 2019. In this regard, Wen Bin, the principal researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that on April 20, the 1-year LPR offer fell 20 basis points from the previous period, in line with market expectations.

  LPR historical data data source: China Currency Network Tabulation: China-Singapore Jingwei Wei Wei

  Wen Bin analysis said that before this, the central bank has successively lowered the reverse repurchase and MLF interest rates by 20 basis points, which shows that the transmission mechanism from the policy interest rate to the loan market interest rate is smooth. Facing the unprecedented impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on China's economic and social development, the Politburo meeting held on April 17 first proposed "to hedge the impact of the epidemic with greater macro-policy efforts." Since the LPR reform in August last year, the largest rate cut has helped to further reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

  Mingming, deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute believes that LPR is a basic interest rate benchmark, and the financing cost of various types of enterprises will fall. Considering the epidemic, the central bank has also launched various policy support for SMEs, such as re-loans, special loans, and joint-stock banks and rural commercial banks have increased the targeted reduction rate. These banks mainly support SMEs. These policies All are conducive to supporting the financing of SMEs.

  It is worth noting that this time the LPR price once again showed an asymmetric downward adjustment. Compared with the 20-point decline in the 1-year period, the 5-year period only fell by 10 basis points. On February 20, LPR experienced an asymmetric decline for the first time, with a 10 basis point decline over a one-year period and a 5 basis point decline over a five-year period.

  Obviously, since the LPR reform, the decline rate of the 5-year-old varieties has been lower than that of the 1-year-old varieties, mainly because the 5-year-old varieties and above are the medium and long-term interest rates. It is still the reference interest rate for mortgage loans. Maintaining no speculation ”and maintaining the steady operation of the real estate market. In accordance with established practice, the decline in LPR over a 5-year period will be smaller than that of a 1-year period.

  "This time, LPR has once again experienced an asymmetric decline, showing that monetary policy is flexible and modest." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Xinwang Bank, said that on the one hand, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has a big short-term impact on China's real economy, and short-term interest rates have fallen more Focus on supporting the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to overcome the current difficulties and provide a strong guarantee for the comprehensive restoration of the economic and social order; on the other hand, personal housing loans account for a large proportion of loans over 5 years, and the release of asymmetric decline promotes the stability of the real estate market The signal of healthy development.

  Dong Ximiao further emphasized that the decline in LPR over 5 years is lower than that in 1-year periods, indicating that "housing and housing is not speculation" is still the policy direction; while the 10 basis point decline is still the largest decline since the new mechanism LPR was announced, intended to support the real estate market Steady and healthy development.

Monthly mortgage loan reduction of 62 yuan does not exist large-scale bailout

  The new latitude and longitude in the data model house

  The impact of loan interest rates on the property market depends more on changes in LPR over the five-year period, and this time the LPR over the five-year period has been reduced by 10 basis points to 4.65%, the largest decline in history. The industry believes that the decline in LPR over five years will benefit the property market and reduce the pressure on lenders to a certain extent.

  The loan interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans is based on the increase of LPR over five years. This time the decline in LPR interest rates over five years will lead to a decline in the actual mortgage interest rate.

  The data released by Rong 360 at the end of March this year showed that the average interest rate of the nation ’s first home loan in March was 5.48%. In the case of unchanged points, the average interest rate of the nation ’s first home loan may fall to 5.38%. If the loan is 1 million yuan, the principal and interest will be repaid for 30 years. The monthly repayment is 5603 yuan, and the total principal interest is 2.017 million yuan. , Respectively, decreased by 62 yuan and 22,500 yuan compared with the previous ones.

  Applying for a mortgage after the LPR is lowered for more than five years can reduce the monthly repayment expenditure by 62 yuan. What impact will it have on the mortgage that has been applied for and is being repaid?

  The central bank's data shows that at the end of 2019, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 44.41 trillion yuan, of which the balance of real estate development loans was 11.22 trillion yuan. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said: "At the beginning of 2019, the central bank released detailed data for 2018. The balance of personal housing loans was 25.75 trillion yuan, accounting for about 66.5% of all real estate loans of 38.7 trillion yuan. On top of the data for the first quarter of 2020, the current cumulative stock of individual housing loans nationwide exceeds 30 trillion yuan. These stock loans will be directly affected by this interest rate cut. "

  According to the regulations of the Central Bank, from March 1, 2020, financial institutions should negotiate with customers with floating-rate stock loans on pricing basis conversion terms, and convert the interest rate pricing method stipulated in the original contract into LPR as the pricing basis. (Negative value), the value added is fixed for the remainder of the contract; it can also be converted to a fixed interest rate.

  Zhang Dawei predicts that if the interest rate of 30 trillion yuan of individual housing loans is all converted into LPR-based pricing plus points, the 30-year loan period is calculated, and the interest rate is reduced by 10 basis points. One year will save 15 billion of all housing mortgage buyers in the country. Yuan interest expense.

  However, the central bank requires that the interest rate level of stock commercial personal housing loans at the time of conversion should remain unchanged; the borrower and the borrower can re-agree on the repricing period and repricing date, and the minimum repricing period is one year.

  From the perspective of the entire real estate market, Zhang Dawei believes that although the reduction in LPR over five years has hit the largest historical decline, the reduction is only half of the one-year LPR. This kind of asymmetric interest rate cuts shows that we should not expect the government to rescue the market on a large scale. .

  Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the decline in LPR will stimulate the continuous release of demand for house purchases, which will in turn drive up market turnover. At the same time, we must pay attention to some potential risks. Recently, commercial banks are relatively active in issuing loans, but they prefer to invest in the real estate sector. Some operating loans and small loans have entered the property market in violation of regulations. Regulatory authorities should pay attention to the compliance of funds.

  "The 1-year LPR interest rate has dropped to 3.85%, which is already at a relatively low level. At this time, it is necessary to crack down on the short-term loan to pay the first payment for the purchase of houses." Yan Yuejin told the client of China-Singapore Jingwei.

Will the benchmark deposit rate be lowered?

  The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on April 17 put forward that a sound monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, and use means such as RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and re-loans to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide the loan market interest rate down, and use funds to support The real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. The formulation also triggered discussions in the industry about whether the benchmark deposit rate should be lowered.

  Data Map New Latitude and Longitude in Monetary Policy

  "Considering that the Politburo meeting on April 17 emphasized the 'rate cut' in monetary policy, it means that the conditions for deposit interest rate cuts may appear in the near future." Mingming believes.

  Dong Ximiao pointed out that in the context of intensified market competition, the debt cost of small and medium-sized banks has increased significantly in recent years, generally above 2.4%, and many small and medium-sized banks even exceed 3%. Therefore, in the case where deposits are priced at the benchmark interest rate, lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits can directly reduce the debt cost of banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, thereby increasing the willingness of banks to increase credit, which helps reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises.

  But he further emphasized that lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits is a "double-edged sword", and the pros and cons should be weighed and comprehensively considered. In the case where the deposit benchmark interest rate is significantly lower than the consumer price index (CPI), such as further reduction of interest rates, it is unfair to the majority of depositors. Depositors who prefer deposits are mostly low-income groups and rural customers. At the same time, if the actual interest rate of deposits is too low, the savings rate may continue to decline.

  According to Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, in view of the strong rigidity of bank deposit costs, the probability of the central bank lowering the deposit benchmark interest rate is not high before the CPI year-on-year growth rate falls below 3.0%, and the recent decline in money market capital interest rates cannot be compensated The loss of profits caused by the narrowing of bank net interest margins. Therefore, the decline in loan interest rates in the future means that the banking system will continue to make concessions to the real economy.

  Dong Ximiao believes that what is more important than lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits is to actively and steadily promote the consolidation of deposit interest rates and deepen the marketization of deposit interest rates. In accordance with the order of "long-term, large amount, then short-term, small amount", there are differences and step-down adjustment of the benchmark deposit interest rate to drive down the cost of bank liabilities. Considering the difficulty of absorbing and storing debts and the high cost of small and medium-sized banks, in the process of deposit consolidation, the market mechanism should be used to allow small and medium-sized banks to adopt greater interest rate fluctuations.

Will LPR quotes be lowered in the future?

  The price of LPR has been lowered by a large margin. Will there be room for further reduction in LPR in the future? Wang Qing believes that the epidemic affects the lengthening of the cycle, and there is room for lowering the price of LPR. He pointed out that the current domestic epidemic situation has entered a stable control area, but overseas epidemic situation is still in a period of high incidence, and there is great uncertainty in the future direction. This means that in the next period of time, China's exports may face the risk of a sharp decline. The dragging effect of external demand on the domestic economy will gradually appear, and domestic consumption and investment will be required to rise in time. The greater monetary easing will effectively stimulate domestic consumption and investment and hedge the potential impact of overseas epidemics. To this end, the policy interest rate system, including the MLF interest rate, will also move downward. This also means that there is room for downside prices for LPR quotes in the short term, and the possibility of a downward trend again in the second quarter is not ruled out.

  Wen Bin predicts that in the next stage, as inflation continues to fall, there is room for further reductions in policy interest rates, and the deposit benchmark interest rate also needs to be lowered in a timely and appropriate manner, driving the narrowing of the spread of banks in LPR quotations, continuing to release the potential of LPR reform and reducing the real economy. Financing costs.

  Dong Ximiao suggested that the next step should be further reform and improvement of LPR related mechanisms, and deepening the market-oriented reform of loan interest rates. For example, the introduction of LPR with a wider variety of deadlines. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)

All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei, without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use in other ways.