China News Service Client Beijing, April 17th (Reporter Li Jinlei) On the 17th, China's economic data for the first quarter was announced.
Affected by the epidemic, GDP grew negatively in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. However, the decline in major economic indicators narrowed significantly in March. The analysis predicts that after the outbreak, the Chinese economy will usher in compensatory growth.
GDP data chart.
"Troika" negative growth
Judging from the "troika" that drives economic growth, consumption, investment, and exports all showed negative growth in the first quarter.
——Consumption decreased by 19.0% year-on-year
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 785.8 billion yuan, down 19.0% year-on-year. The national online retail sales amounted to 2.2169 trillion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year.
——Investment decreased by 16.1% year-on-year
In the first quarter, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 841.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from January to February.
——Export decreased by 11.4% year-on-year
In the first quarter, the total import and export of goods was 657.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. In the first quarter, exports were 3.3363 trillion yuan, down 11.4%; imports were 3.238 trillion yuan, down 0.7%.
On April 14, the recruiter was looking at the resume of the candidate. China News Service reporter Wang Gangshe
Three major livelihood indicators remain stable
Let's look at the performance of the three major livelihood indicators of employment, income and prices.
——Unemployment rate in urban surveys nationwide has declined
In the first quarter, 2.29 million people were employed in cities and towns across the country. In March, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from February.
-8561 yuan per capita disposable income of residents
In the first quarter, the national per capita disposable income of residents was 8,561 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a real decrease of 3.9% after deducting price factors. The median per capita disposable income of residents in the country was 7,109 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%.
——CPI rose 4.9% year-on-year
In the first quarter, the national CPI rose 4.9% year-on-year. Among them, the CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year in January, the CPI rose 5.2% year-on-year in February, and the year-on-year increase in CPI fell back to 4.3% in March.
Data Map: A real estate building just completed. China News Service reporter Zhang Binshe
The decline in major economic indicators narrowed in March
Although the economic indicators declined in the first quarter, from March, the main economic indicators including industry, service industry, investment, social consumer goods retail and import and export, the declines have narrowed significantly, showing an improvement trend.
Among them, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size in March decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, which was narrowed by 12.4 percentage points from January to February.
In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 15.8%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from January to February.
In March, total imports and exports fell by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points from January to February.
The unemployment rate in the national urban survey in March was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from February. The unemployment rate of the 25 to 59-year-old employment population survey is 5.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that despite the severe impact of the epidemic, there were no large-scale layoffs across the country, and the employment situation was generally stable.
Outlook: After the epidemic, the economy may usher in compensatory growth
Mao Shengyong said that the economic indicators in March were significantly improved compared with January and February. This improvement momentum can continue. As the resumption of production and production accelerates as a whole, the economic performance in the second quarter will be better and will be significantly better than the first quarter. With the global epidemic gradually under control, the economy is expected to be significantly better in the second half of the year than in the first half.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters from China News that the epidemic prevention and control work has achieved stage-level positive results. The resumption of production and production has been carried out in an orderly manner, and domestic demand has rebounded. The main economic indicators have begun to improve.
Wen Bin believes that with the implementation of the policies supporting "six stability", domestic demand will further pick up and the proportion of its contribution to the economy will also increase. It is expected that the Chinese economy will return to the growth track in the second quarter, and GDP growth will continue in the second half of the year Pick up.
Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that if the global epidemic situation is basically controlled later in the first half of the year, the domestic macro economy is expected to rebound close to double digits in the second half of the year, and the downward pressure on the economy throughout the year is still controllable.
On the 14th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook, stating that assuming the epidemic subsides in the second half of 2020, the policy actions taken by various countries can effectively prevent large-scale bankruptcy of enterprises, long-term unemployment and systemic financial pressure. It is expected that global growth will rebound to 5.8% in 2021. Among them, the Chinese economy will grow by 9.2%. (Finish)