Debate on "new infrastructure": how to become a new kinetic energy for economic recovery after the epidemic
"It is the right time to promote investment in new infrastructure." Zhang Lianqi, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the China Taxation Society, said in a seminar recently that new infrastructure is the future trend, but first of all, the problem of "where does money come from" must be resolved.
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"Internet celebrity economist" Ren Zeping got out of the circle. Since the first research report on "new infrastructure" was released at the end of February, Ren Zeping, chief economist and dean of the Institute of Evergrande Group, and his team have brought the concept of "new infrastructure" from academic research to the public.
The so-called "new infrastructure", that is, the construction of new infrastructure, is considered to be the infrastructure of the information age. Different from the “Tie Gongji” (railroad, highway, airport, port) in the previous large-scale infrastructure investment, the “new infrastructure” is generally considered to include seven major areas: 5G, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity Infrastructure construction in the fields of rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and integrated circuits, quantum information, aerospace and other fields.
Should "new infrastructure" be done? What should I do? A series of issues have aroused widespread concern in the market and great discussions in academia and industry. Many discussions focused on a few core questions: Does "new infrastructure" mean a return of "four trillion"? Can the "new infrastructure" support China's economic recovery and growth in the later stages of the epidemic? Under the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, what is the feasibility of "new infrastructure"?
Economists confront each other: the new infrastructure is the new driving force?
Ren Zeping is an advocate of "new infrastructure". On February 28th, his macroeconomic research team published the research report "It's time to start a" new "round of infrastructure construction", and then successively published "A clear banner to advocate new infrastructure", "Be prepared to respond to the global economic and financial crisis, start "New Infrastructure" "China's New Infrastructure Research Report" and other research articles.
Born in 1979, Ren Zeping studied at Renmin University of China and Tsinghua University, served as the deputy director of the research department of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, and also engaged in macroeconomic research in many securities institutions. He joined Evergrande Group in 2017 Chief Economist. He is famous for macroeconomic research and investment forecasting.
In the research report, Ren Zeping's team repeatedly mentioned: "A clear banner to advocate 'new infrastructure' is the most effective way, the most powerful hand, the national policy of benefiting the country and the people." On March 25, in an online video At the meeting, Ren Zeping once again emphasized that the current macro situation requires new infrastructure.
According to the research of his team, under the current macro background, whether it is long-term realization of high-quality development in China, or short-term response to the epidemic situation and economic downturn, the new infrastructure is the most effective grasp.
"From the demand side, the new infrastructure will help expand effective demand, stabilize growth and employment, serve consumption upgrades, and better meet people's needs for a better life. From the supply side, the new infrastructure will help expand effective supply and release China's economic growth. Potential to create the basic conditions for China ’s innovation and development, especially to seize the highest point of global technological innovation. ”Ren Zeping also suggested that this time to respond to downward pressure on the economy should be supplemented by monetary policy and fiscal policy, and fiscal policy should be based on new infrastructure and reduction Tax-based.
However, this series of "new infrastructure" drums and calls also caused controversy. Many experts and scholars expressed completely opposite views on the "new infrastructure" in public. Even if there is dialogue in the air, the gunpowder smell is quite strong.
On March 26, Xu Xiaonian, a life-time honorary professor at China Europe International Business School, said in his keynote speech, "Where does the money come from? At present, the finance is going to be tax-reduced, and the finance is already very tight. Bank loans have debt risks." "Famous Xu Xiaonian pointed out that the investment needed to boost the economy should be considered to directly help enterprises and ordinary people, rather than investing in projects where short-term benefits are difficult to see.
In Xu Xiaonian's view, the typical representatives of "new infrastructure" such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, industrial Internet, Beidou navigation, etc. all need to invest in high-tech and intellectual fields, and their contribution to social needs and employment is limited, while 5G, UHV, charging piles, high-speed rail and other fields are all “old infrastructure” that received a lot of investment in the previous phase of infrastructure investment boom.
A few days ago, Liu Shijin, deputy chairman of the China Development Research Foundation, spoke at the Long Run Gezhi Forum of the National Development Institute of Peking University, saying that the current “new infrastructure” probably includes some large-scale infrastructure investment plans in some provinces and cities, but a careful study Later, it will be found that this includes the investment plans of some provinces and cities for many years, and some projects have been implemented last year.
"The so-called 'new infrastructure' is still wide, that is, about 10%, and it still can't afford the beam." Liu Shijin also said that industrialization investments such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and industrial Internet are enterprise investments, which is related to the government's investment. The forward-looking nature of investment varies greatly. Therefore, he believes that the "new infrastructure" is indeed very promising, and the country will also invest a lot in this in the future, but it still needs to be carefully analyzed how much it can play.
Not only to solve "where does the money come from," but also to consider "advance investment"
While there are still discussions in the academic industry, many provinces and cities have included high-tech industries, digital economy, etc. in the government investment list, and the market performance of new infrastructure concepts such as 5G and cloud computing is also hot. For example, the list of key construction projects announced by Guangdong includes the construction of 11 inter-city rail projects including the Foshan-Guangzhou inter-city railway and the Guangzhou-Foshan Ring Road. It also plans to invest 17.1 billion yuan in information infrastructure such as 5G / 4G networks.
"In a word, it is the right time to promote investment in 'new infrastructure'." Zhang Lianqi, member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice chairman of the Chinese Taxation Society, recently held an online seminar on "New Infrastructure in the Digital Economy under the Epidemic" held by the Globalization Think Tank (CCG) The above stated that "new infrastructure" is the future trend, but first of all, the "problem where money comes from" must be solved first.
Affected by the epidemic, the current national revenue situation is not optimistic. The financial revenue and expenditure released by the Ministry of Finance on March 24 showed that from January to February this year, the national general public budget revenue was 3.5232 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%. Judging from the financial data released by various provinces and municipalities, the fiscal revenue of more than 20 provinces fell sharply. From January to February, Guangdong ’s general public budget revenue reached 224.172 billion yuan, a negative increase of 7.8%; Jiangsu ’s general public budget revenue was 169 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5%, of which tax revenue fell by 7.6%. In February, the fiscal revenues of the four provinces of Shanxi, Jilin, Qinghai, and Henan also declined by more than 20%.
Regarding the investment in "new infrastructure", Zhang Lianqi suggested that the scope of local debts can be appropriately expanded in the fiscal policy. Regions with large population inflows, low local debt risk, obvious social capital, and strong endogenous incentives pool funds. "That means spending money on the blade and using good steel on the blade."
According to Peng Yongtao, director of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the relevant departments have increased the issuance of local special bonds. In January-February, new local government special bonds have been issued 949.8 billion yuan, an increase of 642 billion yuan over the same period last year.
However, under the tremendous pressure of local government debt, relying on government debt to support "new infrastructure" is obviously insufficient. Zhang Lianqi believes that "new infrastructure", especially digital technology infrastructure, has distinctive industry characteristics, in which the main body is an enterprise. "We should not ignore the power of private capital and enterprises, not that the government can do all things." He suggested that "new infrastructure" projects and investments should be more open to private capital and do real PPP (government and social capital Cooperation), for this purpose, we must study and introduce a package of supporting measures to strengthen the overall coordination with fiscal, taxation, finance, employment and other measures.
However, due to the characteristics of long construction period, long single investment recovery period, and low direct return rate, private investment is often less involved in infrastructure investment. In this regard, Zhang Lianqi suggested not only to carry out a cost-benefit analysis, but also to emphasize "appropriately ahead" investment.
"Just like building an expressway in the early days, (at the beginning) there was no traffic, but now it proves to be very timely and very appropriate," he said.
China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily reporter Wang Lin Source: China Youth Daily