Speeding up the comprehensive restoration of production and living order in the normalization of epidemic prevention and control
Expand domestic demand and open up growth space (new economic orientation)
The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 8. The meeting pointed out that the current difficulties facing China's economic development have increased. Party committees and governments at all levels should enhance their sense of urgency, optimize and perfect the epidemic prevention and control measures according to local conditions and timing, and do everything possible to create conditions conducive to resumption of production and production, without losing the opportunity to unblock the industrial cycle, market cycle, and economic and social cycle. How to increase the implementation of the policy of resuming production and resuming production? How to form a benign interaction between supply and demand between expanding domestic demand, household consumption and accelerating the construction of investment projects? The reporter interviewed relevant experts.
Smooth the three major cycles and strengthen the implementation of support policies for small, medium and micro enterprises
As of March 28, the average start-up rate of nationally regulated industrial enterprises reached 98.6%, and the average return rate of personnel reached 89.9%; as of April 9, the capacity recovery rate of key foreign trade enterprises exceeded 76% and exceeded 70%; as of April 10 On the day, the resumption rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has exceeded 80% ... Since March, the staged results of epidemic prevention and control in our country have been further consolidated, important progress has been made in resumption of production and production, and the order of economic and social operations has been speeded up.
However, the international epidemic has continued to spread, the downside risks of the world economy have increased, and instability and uncertainty have increased significantly. The World Trade Organization released the "Global Trade Data and Outlook" report on April 8. It is expected that due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, global trade may shrink by 13% -32% in 2020. China's pressure to prevent epidemic input is increasing. Facing the severe and complex international epidemic situation and the world economic situation, resuming production and economic and social development is facing new difficulties and challenges.
"'Adhere to the bottom line thinking, make a long time to prepare for the ideological preparation and work preparation for responding to changes in the external environment'. Such a judgment is very clear and accurate." Niu Li, deputy director of the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center, was affected by the epidemic and the global economy The contraction of activities and the increased risk of industrial chain and supply chain breakage have affected domestic consumption, investment and expectations.
"Highly emphasizing unimpeded industrial circulation, market circulation, economic and social circulation, it is very targeted." Yang Guangpu, associate researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed that although the rate of resumption of work has been greatly improved, there is still a need to fully recover. No small pressure.
From the perspective of industrial circulation, there is a problem of unsynchronization in the upstream and downstream resumption of production. The relatively dense downstream labor force is affected by the poor personnel flow and recovery is slow. From the perspective of market circulation, the recovery on the demand side is slower than on the supply side. The March PPI fell by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating that there is still a mismatch between market supply and demand. While domestic demand recovers slowly, external demand is shrinking again, leading to lower ex-factory prices of industrial products. From the perspective of economic and social circulation, the flow of people, logistics and capital has not yet returned to normal levels. "Striving to get rid of these three levels of circulation is the key to forming a positive interaction between supply and demand and accelerating the full recovery of the production and living order." Yang Guangpu said.
For smooth circulation, we must first support the shortest board and the weakest item. The most affected by the epidemic are transportation, retail, automobiles, home appliances and other durable goods industries, as well as tourism, accommodation, catering and other life service industries; the most difficult are small and medium-sized enterprises with weak cash flow and low risk resistance.
At present, various types of bailout support policies have been issued one after another, and the tax reduction and fee reduction policies have totaled more than 1 trillion yuan. The targeted reduction of quotas has increased the refinancing of small and medium-sized banks and re-discounted. Subsidies ... "Insist on results-oriented and implement the policies that have been issued to enterprises and laborers as soon as possible." Li Hui, deputy director of the General Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that implementing the policy of assisting enterprises and stabilizing positions is the current focus.
"The most urgent thing is to increase the financing supply to small and medium-sized enterprises, to avoid a large amount of production and bankruptcy due to capital problems." Liu Xingguo, a researcher at the Research Department of the China Enterprise Confederation, said that the impact of the epidemic further exacerbated the funding shortage of small and medium-sized enterprises. It will lead to insufficient innovation capacity and it is difficult to adapt to the needs of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading.
At present, export-oriented enterprises are facing two-way squeeze on the demand side and the supply side. On the one hand, export orders have been postponed or cancelled; on the other hand, the global supply chain has been blocked, affecting the supply of spare parts, and how to support these companies has also become a focus. Liu Xingguo believes that services for export-oriented enterprises should be done well, including establishing and improving the international market early warning mechanism, establishing an international market information release and sharing platform, improving the international business credit guarantee mechanism, enhancing financing support for export-oriented businesses, and promoting import and export Facilitation of customs clearance and foreign investment. "Encouraging export to domestic sales is also one of the ways to help these enterprises overcome difficulties, in line with the domestic consumption upgrade trend." Yang Guangpu said.
Focus on expanding domestic demand and promote normal operation of life service industry
With foreign trade under pressure, it is particularly important to restore and expand domestic demand as soon as possible. Experts believe that the orderly promotion of various kinds of shopping malls and markets to resume work and market, and promote the normal operation of the life service industry, is currently the specific starting point for promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand. "These are the most direct ways to promote terminal consumption. The recovery of consumer demand can further promote the resumption of production at the production end." Niu Li said.
"Resume consumption, the pressure is still not small." Yang Guangpu analysis, first of all, the consumption of large durable goods such as cars and home appliances has been delayed; secondly, seasonal food, tourism and other consumption missed the time window and are difficult to make up; in addition, The adverse impact of the epidemic on employment and income will lead to a decline in the consumption capacity of some people.
Accelerate the full restoration of the order of production and life in the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. Yang Guangpu believes that the prerequisite for the restoration of consumption is the restoration of normal production and living order. Although online retailing has maintained a positive growth, it is still difficult to compensate for the overall retail decline caused by the epidemic. Accelerate the mutual recognition and exchange of health codes between regions, increase the testing of reagents for floating population, and promote the speed of personnel on the basis of safety and epidemic prevention, which not only facilitates the resumption of production and production, but also promotes consumer replenishment.
Promoting consumption should also be combined with protecting enterprises and stabilizing employment. Yang Guangpu analyzed that the normal operation of the life service industry not only provides direct consumption channels, but also serves as the service industry that absorbs the most labor, can stabilize employment, stabilize income, and enhance the consumption power of the people. "It is recommended that on the premise of no layoffs or fewer layoffs, such small and medium-sized micro-enterprises be granted stable job subsidies and interest-free loans."
Expanding consumption still needs to work from the supply side. "It is necessary to protect basic consumption such as food and clothing, to release the frozen and suppressed consumption, but also to cultivate and upgrade new types of consumption, and to release the new consumption potential and kinetic energy represented by online consumption that was spurred during the epidemic. , To organically combine consumption replenishment and expansion. "Chang Tiewei, deputy director of the Employment Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that multiple ministries jointly issued the" Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Quality Improvement and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market "from the supply side From the perspective of the quality level of China's products and services, residents are encouraged to consume, be able to consume, and dare to consume.
Speed up the construction of investment projects and form a positive interaction between supply and demand
To expand domestic demand, both wheels of consumption and investment must run. Relevant ministries and experts believe that the key to accelerating the construction of investment projects lies in the word "effective".
"Focus on shortcomings and other key areas, select accurate investment projects, and give full play to the key role of effective investment." Liu Shihu, deputy director of the Investment Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, for example, to strengthen three aspects of investment projects: major projects and infrastructure construction that have been defined by the national plan Construction of supplementary shortcomings such as poverty alleviation, transportation energy, and major water conservancy; construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers.
"Good steel should be used on the cutting edge. The current difficulties facing China's economic development are increasing, especially to reduce repeated construction and waste, and improve investment efficiency." Niu Li believes that traditional infrastructure projects still have a lot of investment space, such as China Compared with developed countries, the density of roads and railways and the per capita level still have gaps, and construction efforts should be increased.
Yang Guangpu believes that effective investment must target actual demand. For example, in the past few years, China has been emphasizing the shortcomings in the field of medical and health. This epidemic has further highlighted this problem. We should increase investment in these fields. As another example, due to the lack of personnel reinstatement, some enterprises have more urgent needs for intelligent transformation, which also constitutes effective investment. The construction of new infrastructure that has received much attention is also in line with future industrial development trends and consumption upgrade needs. "In order to mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, the government should lower the entry threshold, strengthen supervision, optimize the business environment, and let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources."
Experts said that on the one hand, the implementation of the policy of resuming production and production will be strengthened, and support for difficult industries and small, medium and micro enterprises will be strengthened to ensure supply; on the other hand, consumption replenishment and expansion will be promoted to increase the effectiveness of investment and open up broad space for supply growth , Forming a benign interaction between supply and demand.
"Short-term policies should be linked to mid- and long-term reforms. Insist on advancing various mid- and long-term reforms and the" 13th Five-Year Plan "determined by the Party Central Committee, and make the" 14th Five-Year Plan "based on the new situation to give the market stability expectations Market confidence. "Yang Guangpu said that this is the key to maintaining a positive interaction between market supply and demand and stable economic and social development for a long time.
Zhao Zhanhui
Zhao Zhanhui