Recently, in order to promote consumption, major cities have released a big move-to issue consumer vouchers.

In March, Hangzhou issued 1.68 billion yuan of consumer coupons to all staff in Hangzhou, Nanjing issued 318 million yuan of consumer coupons to the public, and Jiaxing followed up 200 million yuan of consumer coupons. In April, Zhengzhou issued 400 million yuan of consumer coupons to the society. In Guangdong, Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhuhai, and Jiangmen have successively followed up on issuing bonds.

In just over a month, more than 30 cities in 17 provinces across the country announced that they would issue consumer vouchers to citizens. According to incomplete statistics, the amount exceeds 5 billion yuan, and there are endless stream of followers.

Netizens ridiculed the company's annual meeting for a long time, but their hands have been honest to make an appointment or shake the number to apply for a coupon. After all, the form is too rich, not only coffee coupons, shopping coupons, gourmet coupons, but also hotel coupons, book coupons, and even car coupons.

Looking at the money waves, many people can't help but think about the four questions. Should the coupons be a gimmick? I want to buy a car and a house. Why is Hangzhou doing so hard, isn't it better to directly send money?

Could coupons be a gimmick?

From the point of view of necessity, it is not a gimmick, but also anxious.

From January to February this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods nationwide fell by 20.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 28.7 percentage points year-on-year.

Consumption is the number one driving force for China's economic growth. Guangdong's consumption accounts for more than 10% of the country, and we have to pay attention to it frequently.

Consumer vouchers are cash vouchers / vouchers issued by the government to the public through finances when the economy is in recession. The public can use this to deduct the corresponding amount. As a result, it cooperated with other policies to stimulate consumer enthusiasm, which in turn drove the sales of merchants and the recovery of factory production, and drove the economy out of the trough in the short term.

On March 28, Wen Weige (left), secretary of the party committee of Shaxi Town, Zhongshan City, appeared as a guest anchorman and introduced the town's casual clothing on a live broadcast platform.

The consumption vouchers issued by cities from March to now are mostly used in shopping malls, supermarkets, restaurants and other places. Citizens will receive a "full reduction" in consumption, and merchants will also give discounts in due course.

In Nanjing, the first city to issue consumer vouchers, a citizen went to a restaurant in Jiangsu to eat and paid 152 yuan. After using the "full 150 minus 100" voucher, only 52 yuan need to pay out of pocket, which is equivalent to a 30% discount.

Netizens laughed and said: "Everyday consumer goods like food and clothing have been subsidized, and the cost of living is not only self-supporting."

Consumer vouchers are generally issued through electronic means such as mobile phones. Everyone did react violently. For example, after the announcement of the 30 million yuan consumer voucher rules in Futian District, Shenzhen, an appointment was initiated on the WeChat applet of "Spring to Futian" at 11:00 on April 2nd. In just 10 minutes, nearly 200,000 users signed up! About 120,000 people received the first batch of vouchers that day.

But wait a minute!

As mentioned above, the purpose of consumption coupons is to spur more consumption. In 2009, in response to the financial crisis, China had a wave of consumer vouchers. Statistics later found that after ordinary income office workers used consumer coupons to buy daily necessities, the funds originally used for consumption tended to be saved, and the effect of policy stimulus was discounted.

And this time, there are targeted subsidy consumption vouchers for people in need.

So, after the consumer vouchers mobilize the enthusiasm of the public, are there any countermeasures?

Want to buy a car or a house?

Compared to going to shopping malls and supermarkets for discounts, buying a car or buying a house at a discount seems more attractive.

Many people believe that middle- and high-income groups are more likely to be stimulated by consumer vouchers and purchase goods and services that they did not intend to purchase. Arrange consumer coupons for durable goods such as automobiles, high-end home appliances, and 5G mobile phones to attract middle or high consumer groups to advance or increase consumption before they can spur more new consumption for current short-term stimulus.

Therefore, many cities have issued consumer vouchers in multiple rounds. The second round of issuance will focus on relatively high-end consumer behavior.

Among the 200 million yuan consumer vouchers recently launched by Jiaxing, 40 million yuan are included in automobile vouchers, which can be used at major 4S stores.

Although there were house purchase vouchers when China issued consumer vouchers in 2009, this time it has not yet been found which city offers discounts for house purchase vouchers.

What is slightly "tragic" is that recent statistics have found that the current middle and high income groups have limited enthusiasm for consumer coupons. Real estate and motor vehicle purchase restrictions are the biggest pain points.

And some people worry about the intertemporal substitution effect of consumer coupons. Because the vouchers for the above-mentioned durable goods, advance the future consumption in advance, but did not increase the total demand. Or because of concerns about Yin eating Maoliang, the scale of such consumer coupons is not large.

The reporter believes that in fact, only after stabilization can there be post-strokes, and consumption coupons are only short-term stimulus policies. In the future, with the play of other medium- and long-term policies and the improvement of the economic situation, more economic development issues will be resolved.

Although consumer coupons have not been able to do much in the above-mentioned fields for the time being, other promotional fee measures are already in force.

On March 13, 23 departments, such as the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued a document to promote the shift from car purchase restrictions to guided use policies, and encourage car purchase regions to appropriately increase car license plate limits.

Loosening is the most effective stimulus, and supporting measures have been introduced in various places.

The Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce revealed that this year it will completely abolish the policy of restricting relocation of used cars. Individual consumers in Guangzhou buy new energy vehicles, and each vehicle is rewarded with a subsidy of 10,000 yuan. Subsidies can even be as high as 5,000 yuan for buying a new "National VI" standard car in Foshan.

Why is Hangzhou homework so hard?

Of the more than 5 billion yuan of consumer vouchers in more than 30 cities in 17 provinces, Hangzhou issued 1.68 billion yuan, accounting for one-third of the country.

Why do you work so hard in Hangzhou?

It turned out that in the 2009 consumer coupon boom, Hangzhou benefited greatly.

According to the statistics of researchers, Hangzhou issued 910 million yuan of consumer coupons in response to the financial crisis, which led to an increase in per capita consumption of 500 yuan, and related factors drove the growth of industrial output value for 8 months, totaling 45.5 billion yuan.

The most outstanding consumer coupons that year were tourism consumer coupons. Hangzhou has created a financial subsidy of 1 yuan for tourism consumption vouchers, to spur a “miracle” of 57.8 yuan for consumption.

Looking back at the consumer voucher policies around 2020, the Li Xunlei team of Zhongtai Securities estimates that the leverage effect of consumer vouchers to drive retail sales of consumer goods is about 15 times, with an average increase of about 10 percentage points.

The government subsidizes 1 yuan and spurs social consumption of 15 yuan. Is the "revengeful consumption" that the enterprise expects coming?

First, finances will not flood. For example, of Hangzhou ’s total 1.68 billion yuan consumer vouchers, the government matched 500 million yuan, and merchants matched preferential credits of 1.18 billion yuan.

Secondly, no matter what kind of consumption coupons are used in more than 30 cities, almost all of them use the matching method of coupons, and citizens are the main consumers.

Regardless of whether "retaliatory consumption" has come or not, the recovery period of catering and retail enterprises is far from over. Lin Haiping, the owner of the hot pot restaurant in Bahe Lihai, Guangdong, still has a voice about "selling a house to pay a salary." Many businesses are now not only matching discounts, but even launching their own vouchers. The anxiety is overwhelming.

Would n’t it be better to pay directly?

Many people may ask, why not send money directly?

Right now, foreigners can promote consumption much more directly.

The United States directly pays 1,200 US dollars (approximately RMB 7,117) per person for single adults, the United Kingdom pays 80% of the salary for the unemployed, and Germany also announces a money plan with a total budget of 50 billion euros ...

Zhang Deyong, a researcher at the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the Chinese people have the habit of saving, and cash is likely not to be used for current consumption but to be saved, or flow to non-consumer fields such as the financial market and real estate market. purpose. After all, China ’s savings rate was 50% 10 years ago, and it is still 45% today, still the highest level in the world.

The characteristics of high consumption and high debt in European and American countries are just the opposite of China. The Fed survey found that 40% of US households cannot afford emergency expenses of US $ 400.

It can be seen that the two strategies are determined by their actual conditions. The time limit, specificity, and specificity of consumption vouchers can make our consumption in China play an immediate role.

In this case, please tell me, what consumption coupons have the most benefits this year?

As of now, one of the most eye-catching promotional fee initiatives in various provinces and cities is still the tourism consumption voucher. According to incomplete statistics, at least 32 provinces and municipalities have launched tourism consumption vouchers.

More than 10 provinces such as Guangdong, Liaoning, Fujian, Hebei, Guizhou, and Zhejiang have even “opened their bows”. On the occasion of Dafa tourism coupons, they have issued opinions to encourage 2.5-day vacations on weekends to boost tourism consumption. Jiangxi Province became the first province in the country to stipulate a trial of a 2.5-day flexible schedule for the weekend in the second quarter.

Why are travel vouchers so fierce? As a comprehensive industry, tourism can bring about recovery in transportation, catering, accommodation, shopping, scenic spots, etc. The multiplier effect of tourism consumption coupons and the chain reaction to the entire chain are very prominent.

Although the effect of this year ’s travel vouchers remains to be seen, it can be expected that “big travel” vouchers are expected to be a great trick in this round of stimulus measures.

Source | South + Client
Master Pen | Southern Economic Think Tank Su Li