Let's say you have an apple field in a rural village. One day a beekeeper was beehive next to him. The bees roamed the female and male flowers to collect honey, and in the process, more fruits were opened. The owner of the apple field saw an unexpected 'gain' thanks to a beekeeper. I don't know if the owner of the apple-field that feels good may buy rice from the beekeeper, but strictly speaking, there is no special 'contract relationship' between the two. The beekeeper's selfish behavior unexpectedly had an unselfish influence on the owner of the apple garden.
How good would it be if you could always help and live like this? Unfortunately, reality is not. In contrast to beekeepers, there may be more instances of unexpected 'negative effects'. For example, if someone was smoking on the street, and a pedestrian accidentally passed by… He will suffer damage from cigarette smoke, regardless of his doctor.
As such, the behavior of a particular economic agent has an unexpected effect on other economic agents, and this phenomenon is called ' external effect ' in economics. Cases that have a good influence like beekeepers are called 'positive externalities', and conversely, street smokers are called 'negative externalities'.
(※ As a reference, the Korean song of the Goryeo Dynasty also has a phrase that contains this 'negative external effect' in the Goryeo song. "Somehow, when you finish up Dolko, Chori and Gori, you can drink as soon as possible." ☞ Today To put it in words, "Where is the stone that I threw. Who I am trying to hit. There is no one who hates or loves me, but I am crying because of this stone." I am severing the 'negative externality' of my life regardless of my will or behavior. It is a phrase that is expressed clearly.)
● Negative externality from 'China', bang around the world
Recently, there has been a huge 'negative externality' in our society and even around the world. This is 'Corona 19' . There is no place to take damage with Corona 19, but the damage to the economy is particularly serious. Macro and micro-economics are indispensable. The whole world has been exposed to the recession, decline in income, and 'fear of dismissal'. China may not have spread the epidemic with the intention of damaging the world economy, but it is undeniable that the massive damage has occurred anyway.
To quote the verse of the Cheongsan Byeolgok mentioned earlier, "It is a stone that has been flying from China (it should be said to be a huge rock in fact ...), so we all cried and collapsed." The world is suffering such a great deal of damage, but that doesn't mean China is reparing us or the rest of the world. It can be said to be consistent with the condition of 'negative externality', which caused damage but no compensation.
If you go a little further, with Corona 19, almost all economic sectors have entered the 'direct damage assessment'. According to data analyzed by Samjung KPMG ('Analysis of Industry Impact on Corona 19'), 16 of 17 major industries were hit by Corona 19. (The only positive evaluation was the 'game industry'.)
The performance will decrease right away → then you will experience management difficulties → prepare emergency management and self-help measures such as austerity finances, labor reduction, etc. → to survive, if you do not overcome the crisis, the company will disappear through the back of history.
Among the various economic and industrial sectors, the 'aviation industry' is particularly direct, immediate and fatal. This is because virtually every skyway is blocked as each country prevents entry into the country due to the Corona 19 crisis.
The number of international passengers in the fourth week of March was 8,599, which is a decrease of 95.5% compared to the same period last year (173,366). There aren't even 5 people in the restaurant where 100 people usually came. Of the 374 national airliners, 324, or 87% of them, have been left unchanged. It is a 'rest ~~~ rest' without commitment.
What would happen if only four or five people came to a restaurant that had 100 people? There's nothing to do right now. There is no need for a chef to prepare food, an employee to greet guests, or a cleaning or security personnel. In a word, it means 'reduction windbreak' will start blowing soon.
Exporting people does not solve the problem. This is because the basic 'employment cost' still remains. Whether you come or not, you will be forced to spend on building rent and electricity. The aviation industry has a very high proportion of these 'fixed costs', accounting for 35-40% of total operating costs.
Even if only operating expenses and interest expenses, excluding depreciation expenses, are calculated, Korean Air must spend an average of 800 billion won per month, Asiana Airlines' 490 billion won, and Jeju Air's 100 billion won in cash. If you go this way, the cash collected by each airline will run out in the first half. By the first half of this year, sales of national airlines are also expected to reach at least 6.4 trillion won. Each airline introduces an emergency management system, such as paid leave, unpaid leave, and return of wages, but the 'fired wind' is gradually approaching us , as Eastar Airlines cuts at least 300 employees .
In this crisis of change-over survival, the place where airlines are looking is the government's mouth . The eyes are very desperate, desperate and desperate. "Are you going to destroy the 'industrial industry', the backbone of the national industry, like this?", "Isn't it necessary to attach an oxygen respirator to breathe at least?" More specifically, "We don't lend money to the financial sector because our credit rating is too low, so the government (guarantee bank) wants to guarantee payment." It is more like a scream than a cry.
But the government is cautious. Although it has provided measures such as emergency financing of 300 billion won for low-cost airlines (LCC), various cost reductions, and deferred payments, it is still cautious about the actual funding that airlines desperately want.
"The nature of the airline industry, which is highly dependent on leasing, has a high debt ratio, so we need to make comprehensive efforts to increase financial support, improve capital, and improve management," said Eunsoo Eun. The expression was elegant, but the meaning contained was simple. "Let's prepare a self-help book!"
Why are financial authorities not active in supporting airlines? There may be many reasons, but at a glance, there are three things.
1. Help small and medium-sized businessmen and small and medium-sized enterprises.
☞ Many companies want support such as Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction and Ssangyong Motors.
☞ For large companies with easy access to the market, first raise funds from the trading bank and the market first.
2. There is not much possibility to blow the national blood.
☞ If the airline goes down when you start applying, the blood flow will go away.
☞ Prepare self-help measures so that you can survive on your own so that the funding does not become a sunk cost.
3, and finally "negative public opinion looking at the airline is burdensome."
Why is negative public opinion on airline support burdensome? Even if you think about how the owners of the airlines have been showing for a while, you can get closer to the answer without difficulty.
Turn off the plane that didn't give peanuts, harass employees, smuggle luxury goods, sneak hiring of foreign maids, illegally hire and throw cups at meetings, slam, beat and slam at the employees, tumult between family members for management, and eventually Fighting side-by-side, inserting a 'executive housewife' daughter who has no management experience into social life as an 'executive', controversy over the in-flight meal, and controversy over the 'joy crew'… . They showed a lot of diverse, even, novel and novel cases.
"It's not a tree, it's not the wind, it's your heart."
Is it because of this background? A few days ago, I asked a financial official what they thought about airline support. Then, on the premise of thinking, I sent a passage from a movie like this.
On a clear spring day, the disciple asked, looking at the branches blowing in the wind.
Master, is that a tree branch moving? Is the wind moving?
The Master said with a smile, without seeing the disciples pointing.
"It's not a tree, it's not the wind, it's your heart."
-Movie <Sweet Life> 中-
What the officials of this financial institution wanted to say was, "It's not Corona 19 that shakes, it's not a closed border. It's you, the airline."
Earlier, global investor Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway said: "When it comes to low tide, you can see who is swimming naked." In Buffett's words, the large ebb of Corona 19 reveals the nakedness of the airlines who were swimming naked. Criticism, "Before we hope for government support, prepare a self-help book that cuts bones, such as the appearance of the owner's family," is the point that comes closer to the heart.
"Going down has wings."
In Greek mythology, a character called Icarus appears. Icarus, who made wings with bird feathers and beeswax and flew into the sky, climbed arrogantly high, high, and even higher, forgetting his father's warning, "Don't go high in the sky." While continuing to climb like that, the beeswax with wings in the sun melted and died in the Aegean Sea. (※ Daidalos, the father, raised the body of Icarus and buried it on the island. Later, it was said that this island was named after Icarus. Why is it flying?
"Ceux qui tombent ont des ailes" is the verse of the Austrian woman poet Inge Bork Bachman's poem 'The joyful play is over' . It is not known exactly whether the aviation industry's ordeal today is due to the negative externalities caused by Corona 19, or the arrogance that Icarus had, or both.
But the wings that let me fly are broken, and it seems clear. And it seems clear that 'the fun game' is over. Dead or alive, the time of final choice is approaching.
[Report File] Going down has wings ... Aviation Industry 'Crisis End'
2020-04-08T01:33:35.581Z
Let's say you have an apple field in a rural village. One day a beekeeper was beehive next to him. The bees roamed the female and male flowers to collect honey, and in the process, more fruits were opened.
Source: sbskr