The coronavirus epidemic could cut 10 to 18% of growth in France, which is preparing, like many other countries in the world, to enter into recession. Figures that are comparable to those observed during the Second World War.

We are starting to take the true measure of the crisis that awaits us. The French economy will experience a shock like it has not suffered since the 1940 debacle.

Yes, the estimates are starting to refine. And I must say that it is scary. France, Europe, the world will suffer a shock like we have never known in peacetime. To put things in perspective, the 2008 crisis had cut growth by 3%. The 1975 oil shock of only 1%. Here, we are talking about 10 to 18%, it is the range chosen by the German economic institute Ifo which refers. In the year of the breakup in 1940, growth had fallen by 20%. In 1944, by 15%: you see, we are in these waters.

And inevitably, each of us will suffer the consequences.

These figures are not abstract. Of course, France, like all the other countries, will mobilize huge sums to cushion the fall in activity. But we will not avoid a global recession: according to Coface, 68 countries in the world will enter into recession. The number of business bankruptcies will soar. This crisis will have very serious social consequences. There will be unemployment. And of course an impact on everyone's income. A fall in activity in such proportions inevitably results in a fall in income. If growth drops from 10 to 18% as we fear, the average income per capita will return to the level of the year 2000. In a few weeks, this cursed virus will have wiped out 20 years of economic growth!