Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov in an interview with the program “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin ”on TV channel“ Russia 1 ”said that the global economic crisis, triggered, in particular, by the coronavirus, will still make itself known.
A lot of work remains to be done, Peskov added.
“We are aware that the global economic crisis that triggered, among other things, the coronavirus, will also make itself known, and we need to prepare for this crisis. And, of course, coordination of actions and anti-crisis measures on the part of many states will be required, ”he said.
Prior to that, experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting (CICAC) presented an analytical note stating that the situation with the coronavirus epidemic and oil prices are developing according to a “crisis”, and possibly a “shock scenario”.
According to analysts, it will not be possible to avoid a severe recession and, as a result, a jump in poverty and unemployment. The note also says that because of the “ideality” of the economic storm - a combination of “quarantine shock” with stopping entire business sectors in large cities and a sharp drop in “oil revenues” - the crisis for Russia may turn out to be much more serious than for the world as a whole .
“If for most other countries the drop in oil prices is a stimulating factor, then for Russia the situation is fundamentally different. A decrease in oil prices, causing a contraction in domestic demand, will lead to the fact that a significant part of enterprises quitting personnel for quarantine simply cannot fully reopen, ”experts say, noting that the longer the quarantine lasts, the harder this effect will be.
RISI expert, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev, in a conversation with RT, also expressed the opinion that the crisis will be global, but noted that Russia is able to reduce the negative consequences. The expert pointed out that if serious efforts are made, which the Russian government is doing now, it will be possible, if not to achieve high growth rates, then at least not slide into a depressive and negative zone for a long period.
“We have our own energy resources, we have all the financial indicators in the normal state, while it was normal with the budget. It is clear that the budget will be complicated, but we have reserve funds. And if we include not a defensive scenario, but an active one, to stimulate our own economy, maintain the demand of the population, stimulate business, I think that we can fully cope with this situation. We have a sufficiently capacious domestic market, if we give it an impetus for development, it will more than compensate for anything that will happen negative outside our national economy, ”Belyaev said.
- © Mikhail Voskresensky / RIA News
On April 3, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that the government is working on an additional package of measures to support the economy. The Minister noted that to date, not a single package of measures can be considered sufficient, as the situation is developing rapidly.
“To say that we are currently experiencing such a short-term powerful closure, after which there will be an equally powerful opening, is probably presumptuous. The closure will be, and the opening and restoration - it will still be phased and gradual, ”he said.
The head of the department indicated that the speed of economic recovery directly depends on the measures that are currently being taken.
Recall, on March 19, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the introduction of a delay of three months for insurance premiums and rent payments for representatives of small and medium-sized businesses. The measure is designed to minimize the effects of coronavirus. The prime minister added that the Cabinet, together with the Central Bank, is taking measures to prevent a decrease in lending to the real sector and to support small and medium-sized businesses. We are talking about hotels, hairdressers, repair shops and "other small companies in the service sector, which, due to reduced demand and restrictions in connection with the spread of coronavirus infection, have found themselves in a rather difficult situation."
To make any predictions about the future, you must first take stock of what happened to the economy after hours, said Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian government and a leading analyst with the National Energy Security Fund, in an interview with RT. The main problem, according to the expert, is that the crisis "is not synchronized by region."
“If the whole world fell ill immediately and then simultaneously recovered, everything would be much simpler. Now the problem is what: the Chinese have already recovered, China is rebuilding its economy, the Europeans are at the height of quarantine, the Americans are only entering this story. It turns out that China is rebuilding its production, but there is no one to sell, ”he explained.
Also, the expert did not agree with the thesis that the situation in Russia will be worse than in the world.
“Those shortfalls in income that we now have due to falling oil prices, they come from the NWF, they are compensated. All those measures to support the economy will also mainly be at the expense of the NWF. The Ministry of Finance said that the NWF would be enough for 2-3 years if the average annual price of oil is $ 25 per barrel. Maybe now it’s not enough for 3 years, but $ 25 per barrel over the course of several years is also not a realistic scenario. At least $ 40-45 per barrel, we are likely to see by the end of the year. Our budget is made up from $ 42.4 dollars per barrel, for us the same $ 45 is quite a comfortable price, ”added Yushkov.