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The advance of the coronavirus begins to emerge part of its impact on the economy and the stock markets continue to accommodate investors' fears in the face of this uncertainty. After a past week in which the markets took some respite, these last few days have returned to negative territory dragged down by the worsening of recovery expectations and poor employment data.

Yesterday it was the turn of Spain and the United States. In Madrid, the figures show that the measures to stop the expansion of the covid-19 have claimed more than 833,000 jobs in the month of March, while the number of workers affected by job suspension by ERTEs exceeds 620,000.

In the US and according to data from the Department of Labor, the week of March 16 to 22, the country multiplied by 12 its claims for unemployment insurance, up to 3.3 million claims and in the week of 23 to 29, the doubled. That means that in just 14 days the world's first economy has lost 10 million jobs,

In addition, the official employment report this Friday reflects a deterioration in the labor market far greater than expected: the US market destroyed 700,000 jobs in March, above the expected 100,000, which has triggered the unemployment rate since 3, 5% to 4.4%.

Although yesterday the indices barely noticed the ballast of this bad news, this Friday investors have opted for a generalized profit collection from which only the Ibex 35 has been saved - albeit for very little. The Spanish selective has ended almost flat, but in green with an advance of 0.11% and 6,581 points , although in the weekly balance it has contracted by 2.9%.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Frankfurt Dax was down 0.47%; the Cac 40 in Paris, 1.57%; the Ftse Mib in Milan, 2.6% and the Ftse 100 in London, 1.18%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell around 1.5% coinciding with the close on the Old Continent .

And that despite the rally that has drawn the price of oil in the last 24 hours. Only in the session on Thursday, the barrel of Brent - a benchmark in Europe - rose almost 20% and recovered $ 30 and the trend has continued this Friday, when it has exceeded 33 greenbacks when it was known that OPEC and its Allies will meet next Monday to try to contain the fall in crude oil.

The "bad news", as pointed out by Bankinter's Analysis Department, is that the Budget Office of the US Congress estimates that the country's GDP in the second quarter will contract 7% and that unemployment will exceed 10%, remaining around 9% by the end of 2021. "The latter is the worst. But estimating such an extensive period of high unemployment is equivalent to accepting that the speed of post-virus recovery is unknown," they point out in their comment this Friday.

Larry Fink's vision

The duration of the crisis and the recovery have become the main unknown factor for investors to decipher. Just this week, Larry Fink , founder and CEO of BlackRock , the world's largest fund manager, predicted in a letter to his shareholders that the economy will recover "quickly," although he acknowledged that he had not experienced anything like it in his 44 years. years of profession. "The effects have hit the markets with a ferocity that is only seen during financial shocks," he said in the letter.

In his opinion, the coronavirus crisis will mean a change between the world we knew and what will come when the world quarantine ends. "It has brought a rethinking of many ideas about the global economy ... When we come out of this crisis, the world will be different. The psychology of investors will change, but also the way of doing business or consumption," he says.

And all these changes will also force investors to rethink how they make decisions. In his opinion, one should not rush, but keep a cool head and think about the long term. "I think that attitude is more transcendental today than ever. Companies and investors with a deep sense of the long term will be in a better position to navigate this crisis and the world that will come after it," he says.

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