The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ’s recent announcement of the operation of the communications industry in the first two months of 2020 shows that for the first two months of this year, the number of 4G users in China has decreased for the first time. Is this a trend or an accident?

The reduction is about 20 million households

Recently, the "Economic Operation of the Communications Industry from January to February 2020" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that in the first two months of this year, the mobile phone users and 4G phone users of the three major operators have negative growth, and the number of mobile phone users has decreased. There were 21.42 million households, and the number of 4G telephone users decreased by 19.46 million.

The number of mobile phone users and 4G users has both dropped significantly, but this is the first time. For the full year of 2019, there was a net increase of 35.25 million mobile phone users and a net increase of 114 million 4G users. In 2018, there was a net increase of 149 million mobile phone users and a net increase of 169 million 4G users in 2018.

From the perspective of operators, from February 2020, the operator ’s user data bulletin, Nanfang Daily reporters found that the number of mobile subscribers of China Mobile and China Telecom has decreased. Only China Unicom increased, and China Unicom increased mobile subscribers in February. It has 6.601 million households.

Keep card "moisture" accelerate "evaporation"

Earlier, the total number of mobile users in China has already exceeded the total population, because a large number of users hold more than one mobile phone number, and the total number of 4G users is still far below the total population of the country.

Regarding the decrease in the number of mobile subscribers and 4G subscribers in the first two months of this year, industry analysts believe that the February epidemic, the people generally live at home, the operator's offline business sales are affected, the user development effect is affected, and some Business people may also change their original situation of holding two or more mobile phone cards due to reduced economic activity.

In addition, some professionals also revealed that a large number of users before actually came from the agent's "support card" behavior. This part of the agent obtains the maintenance card remuneration from the promotion fee of the operator's enterprise channel through the maintenance card. However, with the recent two years, operator channel promotion costs have been significantly reduced, and card maintenance fees have been “hacked” a lot. As a result, the number of agency card maintenance is also declining, which has also led to the number of mobile users and 4G users. The growth rate has slowed down and even decreased in the first two months of this year. "From this perspective, it can be said that 'water' has been squeezed out." The source said.

Is the number of 5G users preparing to explode?

Earlier, Guangdong Mobile took the lead in announcing that the number of 5G users had exceeded the one million mark, and shortly thereafter, Guangdong Unicom also announced that its number of users exceeded one million.

Looking at the whole country, according to the user data in February, China Mobile's 5G subscribers increased by a net of 8.663 million, reaching a total of 15.399 million. China Telecom's 5G package subscribers totaled 10.73 million. China Unicom did not announce the number of 5G subscribers nationwide. .

From this point of view, China Mobile and China Telecom have more than 26 million 5G subscribers. Of course, it is possible that some of them have both China Mobile 5G packages and China Telecom 5G packages. It is worth noting that China Mobile has set and announced the goal of a net increase of 70 million 5G package users in 2020.

To increase the number of 5G users on the right track, we must have financial support. Recently, the three major operators released annual reports. The total capital expenditure budget in 2020 was 334.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.65% year-on-year. The 5G investment budget totaled 180.3 billion yuan, which is more than three times the previous year.

Specifically, China Telecom's 5G investment plan in 2020 is about 45.3 billion yuan, an increase of 387% year-on-year, China Mobile's 2020 5G investment plan is about 100 billion yuan, an increase of 317% year-on-year, and China Unicom's 5G investment in 2020 is about 35 billion yuan. A year-on-year increase of 343%.

In addition to the three major operators, China Tower's 2020 capital expenditure budget is 28 billion yuan, of which 5G investment is about 17 billion yuan, accounting for more than half.

4G users' real "change" is not easy

Is the decrease in 4G users due to becoming 5G users? Regarding this issue, many professionals believe that the migration of 4G users to 5G users will still be the main way for the rapid growth of 5G users, just like the replacement of 4G to 3G.

As mentioned earlier, at present, in just two months, the total number of 5G users of China Mobile and China Telecom has exceeded 26 million, but why do many people still feel that there are very few people who actually use 5G around them? At the same time, some industry "enthusiasts" have found that even if some people open a 5G package, they are still using 4G. These instructions indicate that operators will face many difficulties in turning 4G users into 5G users.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Accelerating the Development of 5G", stating that it will focus on the four major links of construction, application, technology, and security to promote the accelerated development of 5G.

There is no doubt that this year, operator companies will launch 5G from multiple dimensions. However, for 5G users, they are most concerned about signal issues. Nanfang Daily reporter repeatedly found that the current 5G signal is not ideal, especially in indoor areas.

In the 2019 annual report of the operator company, a reporter from Nanfang Daily found that the cost of 5G base station maintenance is not more prominent. According to the current cost of electricity required for 5G base station maintenance, this part of the cost should be expensive. . This means that some 5G base stations may be built or set up, but they have not really been "activated" or "operated" for a long time.

Regarding the problem of signal coverage, the academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, He Hezhen, also admitted in an interview with Nanfang Daily that the current 5G coverage area is limited. This year, the indoor coverage of 5G signals will be the focus-5G has higher working frequency and better electromagnetic wave penetration ability Poor, so the cost of indoor coverage is higher. 5G indoor deep coverage needs to compare the advantages and disadvantages of distributed base stations and room division systems. The new generation of room division systems need to consider both active and passive, expand the Internet of Things and positioning functions, and increase intelligent capabilities such as visual operation and maintenance.

5G users will not grow at high speed?

In the past two or three years, or the entire 4G era, the number of users has grown rapidly. However, the industry generally believes that in the 5G era, this user growth rate is difficult to reproduce.

Telecom industry analyst Zhang Yi believes that in the process of increasing the scale of 5G package users, many dual-card or even multi-card users may be promoted to become single-card users. This is because 5G packages are still more expensive and the 5G package includes the initial The traffic has reached tens of G, and the highest is even hundreds of G. Such a large amount of traffic is sufficient for one card.

And some experts pointed out more directly that the size of mobile phone users has penetrated the ceiling of the total population and can only be achieved by natural population growth. In fact, the application scenarios of 5G are more in the government and enterprise markets, which is basically It is determined that it is difficult to bring at least one or two 4G cards per person in the 4G era.

"The implementation of the number portability network will also reduce the number of cards held by one person, and it is possible that the scale of transfers between operators may occur, but the rapid growth of the total amount will become increasingly difficult." The source pointed out.

Nanfang Daily reporter Yao Yan