On the road to recovery, the “big red envelope” for consumption is coming
[Economic Interface]
After experiencing a sudden epidemic, people even cherish the beauty of fireworks on earth. After spending more than two months on the "home economy", which mainly consists of masks and daily necessities, the colorful "buy, buy and buy" desire and impulse are rapidly growing in the hearts of many people. On March 30th, after 67 days, Wuhan International Plaza, Chuhe Han Street and other commercial establishments resumed business. The long-lost city life is gradually returning to normal. It is particularly necessary and important to release suppressed and frozen consumption, cultivate and expand new consumption that has been spawned in epidemic prevention and control, and make up for physical consumption and service consumption. .
1. Production, supply and marketing are in full swing, activating the potential of bulk consumption such as automobiles
"I have to buy a car of my own." "I need another car at home." "I want to change to a better private car." ... The epidemic has made people extra careful and concerned about the safety of travel. Various regions have also smashed "big red envelopes" to promote automobile consumption. After two years of downturn, the auto market is expected to usher in a big market.
In order to promote automobile consumption, the State Council executive meeting held recently confirmed that one is to extend the policy of exempting new energy vehicle purchase subsidies and exempting vehicle purchase tax from the end of the year by two years; Hebei and other key regions will eliminate diesel trucks with national emission standards of 3 and below; the third is to sell used cars to second-hand car dealers and reduce the value-added tax by 0.5% from May 1 to the end of 2023.
On March 30, the "Beijing Further Promote the Elimination and Renewal of High Emission Vehicles (2020-2021)" was officially launched. From April 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, this plan was scrapped or transferred out. The city's high-emission old motor vehicles can enjoy government subsidies, with a maximum subsidy of 22,000 yuan per vehicle.
"This is good news for the car market." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Federation, said that mainstream household consumer products are now basically popular, and the housing penetration rate has reached a high level. The epidemic situation has severely impacted social consumption. Automobiles are a clear shortcoming of household consumption. Effective measures should be taken to promote automobile consumption.
According to Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from February 19 to March 30, the overall operating rate of China's auto industry companies has increased from about 60% to 97%, and the rate of employee reinstatement has increased from about 50% to 82%. Yields are already comparable to last year's levels. However, the automobile industry still faces great difficulties and problems. The data shows that the epidemic situation has had a greater impact on automobile consumption in the short term. The suspension of production and production has prevented the production activities of major automobile companies from being carried out as scheduled, and production in January and February was significantly affected. At the same time, consumers are not leaving home and the closure of 4S stores is closing down, which has caused a serious decline in car sales. According to the statistics of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, domestic passenger car sales in the first three weeks of February fell 89% year-on-year, and the overall car market in March is expected to fall by more than 36% year-on-year.
Stabilizing and expanding automobile consumption and promoting consumption upgrades will help accelerate the formation of a strong domestic market. At present, some localities have successively introduced measures such as subsidies for car renewal, purchase of new cars, increase of the number of license plate restrictions, and promotion of autos. Guangzhou Foshan has taken the lead in introducing relevant car purchase subsidies, giving consumers a 2,000 yuan cash subsidy for new car purchases, and a 3,000 yuan subsidy for old car sales or scraps to promote car replacement. Guangzhou City has also introduced related policies to increase subsidies for scrapping used cars, and is also studying the relaxation of the lottery and bidding policies to stimulate consumers to buy cars.
"Promoting automobile consumption needs to focus on the entire life cycle of the automobile, and work at the three ends of production, distribution, and consumption." Wang Bin, head of the Department of Consumer Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the automotive industry has a long chain, a long design and development, and a production cycle. It is a complex system with wide participation and many participants, and promoting automobile consumption. It is necessary to balance the three requirements of economic development, environmental protection and transportation, and coordinate the parties to form targeted, feasible and comprehensive policies and measures.
2. "Smart +" consumption is booming, spawning new consumption in epidemic prevention
From March 19th to March 31st, a car cloud show was held in Anhui Province. The exhibition builds an online car pavilion and uses online and offline interactive sales methods to allow consumers to enjoy cars in the cloud and purchase cars in the cloud. Under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, offline consumption has been greatly impacted in the past few months. In sharp contrast to this, various new consumption scenarios are being carried out in the "cloud".
With the development of online and cloud-based economies during the epidemic, industries such as the home economy, contactless economy, and express delivery have experienced explosive growth. Various industries and industries are accelerating the return to work and production, the economic operation is gradually returning to normal, the people's life will gradually return to normal, and consumer demand will be effectively released. "New consumer formats and models represented by online shopping have shown strong development potential in this epidemic. It is expected that online retail sales of physical goods will exceed 10 trillion yuan this year." National Development and Reform Commission Employment Income Distribution and Consumption Division The person in charge pointed out.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, consumption of goods and services fell sharply from January to February. However, the impact of the epidemic is short-term and extrinsic. The basis for long-term and stable growth of the consumer market still exists. The internal development trend of the continuous advancement of transformation and upgrading has not changed. Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 5.2 trillion yuan, and the scale and volume were still considerable. The online retail sales of physical goods across the country increased by 3.0% year-on-year, achieving contrarian growth, accounting for 21.5% of total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 5 percentage points over the same period last year. The output of 3D printing equipment, smart watches and other electronic products have all increased by more than 100%, and the growth momentum of emerging kinetic energy has not changed.
In order to cope with the adverse effects brought by the epidemic, retail and catering companies are actively developing online businesses and accelerating the development of contactless services such as Internet sales and takeaway food delivery. "From the perspective of supply methods, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has objectively promoted the rapid development of some emerging formats, making it an important driving force for the growth of the consumer market." Said Tao Tao, director of the Department of Foreign Trade and Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics. The replacement rate of in-store consumption has increased, and market participants have increased their willingness to promote online and offline integration and development in order to adapt to market changes, and objectively promoted the pace of China's consumer goods market transformation and upgrading and supply structure optimization.
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 23 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumer Expansion and Quality Enhancement and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market." Obstacles in the institutional mechanism of consumption, fostering and expanding new types of consumption, and explicitly setting up a "smart +" consumption ecosystem.
Wang Yun, a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomics, points out that in line with the current trend of smart and online consumption, while promoting consumer capacity expansion and quality improvement, better leading the industry to intelligent and green development will further promote both industrial and consumer development. upgrade.
In recent years, with the continuous improvement of the urban and rural logistics distribution system, the increasing popularity of the Internet, especially the mobile Internet, and the continuous increase in the number of online shopping users, the scale of online retail in China has steadily expanded, and its role in driving the retail market has continued to increase. "With the further acceleration of traditional online and offline integration of commercial businesses, new types of consumption that rely on social e-commerce and other platforms in the future will usher in greater growth space, and the potential for consumption will continue to be released," said Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.
3. Introduce "real money and silver" measures to promote consumption recovery, capacity expansion and quality improvement
The “real gold and silver” measures have been continuously introduced, and more and more local leaders have either taken the lead in “downing the hall” for consumption, or introduced live products with local products, actively looking for the balance between epidemic prevention and rehabilitation, and creating a safe and secure consumption environment ... The consumption haze brought by the epidemic is gradually dissipating, helping to resume work and resume production, and boosting consumer confidence. Local governments are also doing their best to boost consumption.
In the morning of March 27, Hangzhou consumer coupons were launched, and consumption in all offline stores in Hangzhou rebounded rapidly. As of 4:00 pm on March 29, the Hangzhou Municipal Government had redeemed 28.83 million yuan in consumer coupon subsidies in less than three days, which has strongly driven Hangzhou's market consumption to 453 million yuan.
From March 23, Qingdao launched a 100-day promotion of 10,000 stores to promote consumption replenishment and potential release, and accelerate the stimulation of normal consumption. The activities centered on the ten major activity sections of shopping, catering, culture, tourism, accommodation, real estate, sports and fitness, manufacturing in Qingdao, automobile sales, and agricultural tourism, which were carried out in the field of all consumption at the same time.
At present, the domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled. In the accelerated return to work and production, people's lives are returning to normalization, and more power is cultivating new consumer power.
"Residents' consumer demand is only temporarily restrained, residents’ willingness and ability to consume has not disappeared, and short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term and favorable development trend. "Qiu Tao pointed out that the basic characteristics of China's consumer market are large, full of potential and strong resilience. Changes, the long-term stable growth of the consumer market and the acceleration of transformation and upgrading have not changed. With the elimination of epidemic factors, the gradual release of restraint consumption and the continuous optimization of the market supply structure, China's consumer market will continue to grow steadily.
The "Implementation Opinions" promote consumption expansion and quality improvement from six aspects: market supply, consumption upgrade, consumption network, consumption ecology, consumption capacity, and consumption environment. A series of proposals were made in optimizing the domestic market supply, focusing on promoting the upgrading of cultural and leisure consumption, focusing on the construction of an integrated urban-rural consumer network, accelerating the construction of a "smart +" consumer ecosystem, continuously improving residents' consumption capabilities, and comprehensively creating a reliable consumption environment Policy measures. The 19 measures work from both the supply and demand sides. There are both “hard tricks” that can play an immediate role in promoting consumption, and “long-term measures” to enhance the consumption capacity of residents and adapt to the trend of consumption upgrade.
In the long run, as the economic leader, the fundamentals of the role of consumption in driving the economy will not change and will become an important driving force for economic development. The quality needs of consumers to improve their quality of life and consumption have not changed. As consumption picks up, the price of many consumer goods has also become attractive under the pattern of supply and demand imbalances after the epidemic. Focusing on consumer upgrades, different scenarios of consumer finance products have emerged. Ye Yanfei, first level inspector of the Policy Research Bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a press conference held by the State Council ’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism that the Banking Regulatory Commission will better support new consumption and consumer recovery through consumer credit based on actual conditions.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, pointed out that consumption is becoming the main driver of economic growth. After the epidemic, there is a relatively strong demand for consumer replacement, and the supporting role of consumer power to stabilize growth during the year is expected to further increase. Commodity consumption is expected to rebound in March, and consumption of services such as tourism is expected to increase rapidly after May.
(Reporter Zhang Yi)
● Micro Investigation
#What do you want to go out and buy after the epidemic situation #
Recently, a coffee shop in Qingdao, Shandong launched a 5 liter milk tea barrel, and its sales were booming. Some consumers said that they wanted to drink milk tea during the epidemic, and now they can drink it. After the epidemic struck, people ’s home stayed at home, shopping in malls, eating hot pots in stores, watching movies in cinemas, and traveling to scenic areas. Consumer demand was suppressed for a long time. With the gradual progress of resumption of work and production, consumption has begun to slowly recover. What do you most want to buy after the epidemic? Come and chat.
@ 卤味 Hazelnut sauce: I want to make an appointment with a friend, go out together, go shopping, buy clothes, eat barbecue, eat hot pot ...
@ 戴 草帽 的 字 匠: The wallet is about to move. I want to consume too much content. Go on a tour to admire the great mountains and rivers of the motherland, eat a variety of delicious food, shop for clothes and more. I hope to put it into practice quickly.
@ jglj65660: A family medical check-up, then buy insurance and health products for the family.
@Energize your life: I really want to buy a car. After this epidemic, I deeply realized how important it is to have an independent space of my own.
@ 江 科 19 This fourth class in English: Good food, haha.
@x 烧烧 君 x: In the past, the epidemic most wanted to buy a ticket and walked around. I stayed at home for a few months, so I wanted to go out and see.
@ 唯 种花 兔 在线 制作 油焖 虾: I want to eat Zhou Hei duck and hot dry noodles, and especially want to eat Wuhan Sanxian bean skin.
@Lone star planet roaming note: From winter home to spring at home, I focus on long meat every day. Maybe when I can go shopping, I need to buy sports equipment ...
@ 我 说 我 是 张小 二: I don't want to buy anything, I want to hurry back to work, the epidemic has caused the manufacturing industry to shrink, and first keep the job.
@ Bubble: want to swim in the mountains and rivers, go to the great rivers and mountains and enjoy the beautiful scenery while eating while eating, be sure to spend time with your family and enjoy every moment.
(Finished by Yao Yaqi)