On March 31, the three major US stock indexes closed collectively again, and the Dow Jones Index fell more than 400 points. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the global economy was hit hard in the first quarter of this year. Nearly 100 stock indexes fell by more than 20%. US stocks also created a historical record of 4 circuit breakers in a month. The Dow Jones Index recorded the worst first quarter performance in history . Although U.S. President Donald Trump has signed a third round of economic stimulus bills totaling $ 2.2 trillion on March 27, the White House and Congress Democrats have begun preparing for the fourth round of economic stimulus.
U.S. economy could fall into "sustained recession"
The continuous escalation of the new crown epidemic finally made President Trump give up the idea of lifting the ban on commercial and civilian activities to prevent the epidemic on March 30, and also retracted his previous hope that the US economy would restart before Easter. On March 29, Trump announced that the guidelines for maintaining social distance will be extended to April 30. At a White House press conference on March 31, Trump said that the United States will be "very, very painful" in the next two weeks, reminding the American people to prepare for "difficult days."
The United States currently has the largest number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world. White House New Crown Virus Task Force Coordinator Dr. Deborah Bilks also warned on March 31 that the number of deaths from New Crown pneumonia in the United States will jump sharply to 100,000 to 240,000 in the coming months. She said there was no panacea, no magic vaccine or therapy; all that was needed was action.
Escalating with the epidemic, there is also the panic of various sectors of the United States over the coming of the economic crisis and the food crisis.
While attending a webinar at the Brookings Institution in Washington on March 30, former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said that the U.S. economy had fallen sharply due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. Continued bans will lead to more corporate layoffs and bankruptcies, which may cause more serious damage to the US economy and put it into a long-term "sustained recession." Yellen said that the economic downturn is different from any previous recession experienced by the United States, and it is currently difficult to predict how severe the recession will be. The key depends on the duration of the epidemic prevention and control measures.
Yellen admits that these plans are very important and can support businesses and households with regard to the Federal Reserve ’s “unlimited” quantitative easing policy to save the market and President Trump ’s $ 2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill signed last week. However, many of these rescue measures are temporary, and if economic stagnation is prolonged, the United States needs to take more measures.
Stephen Roach, a senior researcher at Yale University and a former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, also believes that due to the epidemic, the US economy will fall into the worst recession since World War II, and "this is a difficult period to get out of."
In addition to the economic downturn, the imminent food crisis is also of concern. Experts from the World Food Organization (FAO) recently pointed out that restrictive measures taken by governments to alleviate the epidemic, as well as panic buying, labor shortages and logistics challenges caused by the epidemic, may lead to insufficient food production, rising prices and government-level food protection. Doctrine. The organization expects that the epidemic ’s interference with the global food supply chain will emerge in April or May, and calls on all parties to take targeted measures as soon as possible to maintain the vitality of the global food supply chain and reduce the impact of the epidemic on the entire food system.
For Trump, who holds the banner of economics and security, both the economic crisis and the food crisis make him impossible to ignore. On March 30, while announcing an extension of the 30-day anti-epidemic ban, Trump called on every U.S. citizen, family, and business to help the government stop the spread of the virus, saying: "This is a crucial 30 day. We put everything They're all up, these 30 days are very important because we have to recover (normal). "
White House brews fourth-round economic stimulus plan at $ 600 billion
The extension of the anti-epidemic ban shows that President Trump finally accepted the opinions of experts and chose "safe" rather than "economic" in the face of the danger of the new crown pneumonia outbreak. However, a source said that the White House has realized that although the third round of emergency economic assistance program launched on March 27 is already the largest stimulus package in the history of the United States, it may still not be enough to activate the "U.S. Economic heart. " The White House has begun discussions with Democrats in Congress on the fourth round of economic stimulus bills, which are expected to reach $ 600 billion, including more state aid and financial assistance to the mortgage market and tourism.
The Speaker of the United States House of Representatives and Democratic Leader Pelosi also revealed on March 30 that the focus of the fourth round of economic stimulus bill will be on economic recovery. Democrats have started to collect information and take stock of information that may be needed for the new round of stimulus programs. Pelosi said that many of the priorities considered in the fourth round of stimulus will come from alternative stimulus plans proposed by the Democratic Party last week.
On March 23, the third round of the U.S. Republican Party ’s emergency economic assistance plan was blocked in the Senate, and House Democrats subsequently threw out a $ 2.5 trillion alternative stimulus plan, including a direct $ 1,500 grant to each individual Cash, providing a total of $ 500 billion in grants and interest-free loans to small businesses, $ 150 billion in hospitals, community health centers, and government health programs, $ 60 billion in funding to schools and universities, and student debt relief, and 4 billion in states US state election grants, etc. However, several measures in this alternative stimulus plan were rejected by Republicans, and eventually were not included in the third round of emergency economic assistance programs.
Pelosi also revealed on the 30th that measures that may be considered in the fourth round of stimulus bills include removing ceilings on state and local tax cuts, increasing federal aid to states and local governments, and further issuing cash assistance directly to Americans. She also said that voting for the US elections in the coming months would have to be completed by mail, and lawmakers would also re-evaluate Trump's response to the crisis.
Our newspaper, Beijing, April 1st
China Youth Daily • China Youth Daily reporter Chen Xiaoru Source: China Youth Daily