China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52% in March
The resumption of production and production of enterprises has accelerated significantly (Economic Focus)
Core reading
In March, China's manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) was 52.0%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the economy as a whole expanded from the previous month.
In March, the PMI of 21 manufacturing industries rebounded to varying degrees, and generally showed improvements in market supply and demand, gradual policy effects, and rapid recovery of new kinetic energy. China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic and social development have achieved positive results, and the resumption of production and production of enterprises has accelerated significantly.
On March 31, the China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, up 16.3 percentage points from the previous month; non-manufacturing business activities The index was 52.3%, an increase of 22.7 percentage points from the previous month; the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0%, an increase of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month.
"In March, China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic and social development have achieved positive results. The resumption of production and production of enterprises has accelerated significantly, and the China purchasing manager index has fallen sharply last month, and the number has rebounded from the previous quarter." Senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said.
More than half of the companies' production and business conditions improved in March
PMI is a monthly chain index reflecting the economic trend, which can sensitively reflect the short-term changes in the economy. Generally speaking, 50% is regarded as the waterline of prosperity. When the PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects that the economy as a whole has expanded from the previous month; below 50%, it has reflected that the economy as a whole has contracted from the previous month.
"In March, the manufacturing PMI index was 52.0%. It can be intuitively understood that more than half of the enterprises in March had better production and operation conditions than in February." Zhao Qinghe explained.
In March, the PMI of 21 manufacturing industries rebounded to varying degrees, showing four major characteristics:
Supply and demand in the market improved, and corporate purchases increased sequentially. In March, the manufacturing production index and new order index were 54.1% and 52.0%, respectively, up 26.3 and 22.7 percentage points from the previous month. "The production index is 2.1 percentage points higher than the new order index, which indicates that the manufacturing capacity has recovered. The purchasing volume index was 52.7%, which was a rise of 23.4 percentage points from the previous month, and corporate procurement activities were more active than last month." Zhao Qinghe said.
Steel e-commerce platform-find the transaction data of Steel Network can prove this recovery. "Throughout February, the platform steel transaction volume was about 880,000 tons, only 30% of the average level of last year. However, in March, there was an explosive growth." Gong Yingxin, party secretary and senior vice president of Gangwang Network introduced. In March, with As the epidemic prevention and control achieved important results in stages, the downstream manufacturing and construction industries quickly restarted. The average daily transaction volume of steel on the steel network was about 160,000 tons, about 4 times the transaction volume in February. The overall transaction volume of the platform has been restored to Last year's average.
The effect of the policy gradually emerged, and enterprises expected to pick up. The expected index of manufacturing operations was 54.4%, an increase of 12.6 percentage points from February. Among them, the manufacturing of food, wine and beverage refined tea, medicine, special equipment, automobiles, computer communication electronic equipment, etc. were all above average.
New kinetic energy recovered faster, and the PMI of high-tech manufacturing was higher than the overall. From the perspective of key areas, the high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 55.8%, 54.5%, and 52.0%, of which the PMI of high-tech manufacturing is 3.8 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry.
"Since the resumption of work, our orders have increased by about 30% year-on-year. The export orders to be delivered in March have reached 4.5 million US dollars." Yan Hongjia, chairman of Mingguan New Materials Co., Ltd. has not been idle recently, and the company ’s total investment in March was 1 billion The second phase project of protective film, solar backsheet and lithium battery aluminum-plastic film has also begun construction. "90% of the global market share of aluminum-plastic film is in Japan. Now the uncertainty of overseas epidemic situation is increasing. It is our advantage to replace imported ones. Timing, future prospects are worth looking forward to! "
Enterprises of different sizes have rebounded, and large enterprises have recovered relatively quickly. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 52.6%, 51.5%, and 50.9%, up 16.3, 16.0, and 16.8 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition, the non-manufacturing business activity index also bottomed out. Among them, the construction industry has accelerated its recovery, and supply and demand have been released. The service industry has generally recovered. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except for the securities industry, other industries have rebounded to varying degrees, including business activities in the transportation, retail, and banking industries. The index is relatively high.
When the PMI changes in the same direction for more than 3 consecutive months, it can reflect the trend change of economic operation
In February this year, the PMI fell to 28.9%. Why did it recover sharply in March?
A low base is the primary factor. "PMI reflects the economic changes this month compared to last month, and the magnitude of the change has a great relationship with the base last month." The head of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics said that since this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has formed a serious impact on our economy. The impact, especially the February purchasing manager index fell to an all-time low, and economic activity contracted sharply in the short term. In March, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and the comprehensive PMI output index fell sharply in February, and the base rose from the previous month. These data indicate that the production and operation status of enterprises in March has significantly changed from February.
In March, the PMI rose to more than 50.0%. Can it represent that the economy has returned to normal levels?
"This does not mean that the actual production and operation of the enterprise has been restored to the pre-epidemic level." The head of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics told reporters that usually, when the PMI changes in the same direction for more than 3 consecutive months, the economy can be reflected. The trend change of the operation. Only the monthly data rose to the line of prosperity and dryness, it cannot be judged that China's economy has fully recovered to normal levels, and whether the trend can be improved, we must continue to observe the changes.
In addition, the PMI index is a month-on-month indicator, which is easily affected by factors such as workdays, seasons, and bases. Compared with the year-on-year indicator, the data has a larger volatility and is more suitable to reflect changes in the short-term economic situation. The year-on-year indicator generally reflects the change of the current period compared with the same period of last year. It is less affected by seasonal factors and the data fluctuation is relatively smooth. It is more suitable to reflect long-term trends, but it is not sensitive to short-term changes.
Zhao Qinghe also said that although the manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply in March, the survey results showed that the pressure on enterprises' production and operation was still relatively large. The percentages of companies that reflected tight funding and insufficient market demand in March were 41.7% and 52.3%, up from the previous month. 2.6 and 4.1 percentage points.
New challenges in the recovery of the industrial chain
"At the beginning of March, 300 new workers will be recruited, and the orders will be dropped back. I did not expect the epidemic to spread rapidly abroad, and we began to receive notices of cancellation or delay of orders in mid-March." Jiangxi Yifeng Zhongjie Shoes Co., Ltd. The person in charge, He Jiating, was anxious. The company's orders were mainly exported to Europe and the United States. The export orders in the next few months decreased by 40% to 50%. The loss of only one branch plant was nearly 4 million yuan per month.
"Can the policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction and employment stabilization subsidies recently issued in response to the epidemic be appropriately delayed according to the actual situation in the future to help enterprises overcome the difficulties?" He Jiating suggested.
The National Bureau of Statistics survey data show that in March China ’s new export order index and import index for manufacturing industries were 46.4% and 48.4%, respectively.
In addition, the recovery of small businesses still needs to be strengthened. Although the small business PMI rebounded sharply to the expansion range, it was lower than the overall manufacturing industry, and the new order index was 49.7%, which was in the contraction range, indicating that the small business market demand pressure was greater.
"Currently, major new changes are taking place in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation and the economic situation at home and abroad. The pressure of epidemic input in China is increasing, and economic development, especially the recovery of the industrial chain, is facing new challenges. The future trend of the purchasing manager index still needs continuous attention." Zhao Qinghe said .
Lu Yanan Ding Yiting