Chinanews client Beijing April 1 (Xie Yiguan) On March 31, the global stock market started the closing battle in March and the first quarter, and the main stock indexes were mixed. However, in March, under the double blow of the spread of the international epidemic and the oil price war, most important indexes of global stock markets set a bad monthly and quarterly record.

The closing performance of the three major US stock indexes.

The first quarter ended, global stock markets set a number of bad records

——US stock market's worst performance in 33 years

On March 31, the Fed's official website issued a statement saying that it would establish a temporary repurchase facility for other countries and the International Monetary Authority (FIMA). In addition, US President Trump called for a $ 2 trillion infrastructure bill on social platforms.

According to US media reports, the White House and Democrats in the United States Congress are preparing for the fourth round of economic stimulus, which may reach US $ 600 billion to help the United States weather the new crown pneumonia crisis.

On March 31, after the US stocks opened lower, the market turned red due to the positive news. However, the market rebounded in the end. The Dow closed down 1.84%, the Nasdaq fell 0.95%, and the S & P 500 index fell 1.60%.

At this point, after undergoing four rare plunges and fuses in March, the Dow has fallen 13.74% and the S & P 500 has fallen 12.51%, both being the worst monthly performance since October 2008. The Nasdaq has fallen 10.12% for 2008. Worst monthly performance since November. It can be said that the performance of the three major US stock indexes has been the worst monthly since the 2008 financial crisis.

At the same time, the U.S. Dow also recorded its largest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 1987. The Dow fell 23.2% in the first quarter, and also set the record for the largest decline in U.S. stock history in the first quarter. The S & P 500 index fell 20% in the first quarter, reaching 2008 The largest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of this year was the worst quarterly performance of the index ever.

——European Stoxx 600 index is the worst in 18 years

On March 31, European stock markets closed collectively higher. The German DAX index rose 1.22% to 9,935.84 points; the French CAC40 index rose 0.4% to 4396.12 points; the British FTSE 100 index rose 1.95% to 5691.96 points.

But monthly and quarterly performance is just as bad. The Euro Stoxx 600 Index, which represents large, medium and small listed companies in 17 European countries, fell 23% in the first quarter, the largest quarterly decline since 2002.

In addition, the German DAX index fell 16.44% in March and 25.01% in the first quarter, the largest quarterly decline since 2002; the French CAC40 index fell 17.21% in March, the first quarter fell 26.46%; the British FTSE 100 index 3 The monthly decline was 13.81%, the cumulative decline in the first quarter was 24.80%, the worst single quarter performance since 1987. Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 27% in the first quarter and fell 22% in March, the largest monthly decline on record.

——Japan's stock market in the Asia-Pacific stock market has the worst in the past 12 years

Asia-Pacific major stock indexes also showed weak monthly and quarterly performance. As of the close of March 31, the Nikkei 225 Index closed down 0.88% to 18917.01 points, a cumulative decline of 10.53% in March and a cumulative decline of 20.04% in the first quarter, the largest single-quarter decline since the fourth quarter of 2008. The Korea Composite Index rose 2.19% to 1,754.64 points, a cumulative decline of 11.69% in March, and a cumulative decline of 20.16% in the first quarter.

Data Map: Pedestrians pass outside the NASDAQ Stock Exchange in New York, USA.

How does the “leader US stock market play out and can it rebound?

At present, the epidemic is still spreading rapidly in the United States, and economic life is greatly affected. Stephen Roach, a senior researcher at Yale University and a former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, believes that due to the epidemic, the US economy will fall into the worst recession since World War II.

According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of April 1, Beijing time, around 5:50, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has exceeded 850,000, reaching 85,583 cases and 41,654 death cases; the number of confirmed cases in the United States has reached 184,183 There were 3721 deaths.

US President Trump said at a White House conference on March 31 that the United States is undergoing unprecedented tests. "The peak of the epidemic is coming, and it is ferocious." The next two weeks will be very painful. He also emphasized that adherence to the epidemic prevention guidelines is "a matter of life and death."

Under such circumstances, many analysts believe that US stocks have not yet fallen to the bottom.

UBS strategists believe that "selling fatigue" may have occurred because investors' response to progressive bad news is no longer as crazy as it was in the past few weeks. However, the new crown pneumonia infection rate may continue to increase for a period of time, and the stock market has not yet seen the capitulation sell-off that often occurs in the core positions of growth stocks. It is too early to say that US stocks have really bottomed.

"Current US economic and corporate profit data still do not fully reflect the impact of the epidemic, large-scale shutdowns will continue to have a huge negative impact on US consumption-led economic activities, and unemployment and consumption data are expected to continue to deteriorate significantly in the future." CITIC Securities pointed out, Even if the Fed is overweight, it is expected that short-term U.S. stocks will continue the "double kill" pattern of profit and valuation.

However, some institutions are optimistic about the future performance of US stocks.

Morgan Stanley strategists said the stock market may pull back again, but current levels provide some buying points for investors willing to wait 6 to 12 months. "Our basic hypothetical scenario is that, for most stocks, this bear market low has arrived."

Data Map: Domestic investors check stock market information in a securities sales department in Beijing. China News Agency reporter Hou Yushe

Can A shares continue to be a safe haven, stabilizing upward in April?

When most of the world's major stock indexes set a record in history in March, China's A-shares were not severely affected and showed strong resilience.

Wind statistics show that in March, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell by 4.51% and 9.28%, respectively, ranking 3rd and 14th in the global market index gains list, respectively. From a quarterly point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 9.83% in the first quarter, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.31% in the first quarter. The GEM Index was a “red spot in the greenery” of the global stock market, and it rose 2.12% in the first quarter.

How will A shares perform in April? Can we continue to be strong and stabilize?

Everbright Securities believes that the US dollar index continues to fall as scheduled, and after the liquidity problem of the US dollar has eased, the combined effect of A shares and US stocks will be lower than in the previous period. "The main contradiction in the current market is the uncertainty in the impact of overseas epidemics on domestic demand in the second quarter. The market needs to wait for a clearer counter-cyclical adjustment policy. The direction and intensity of hedging in the later period are the key points for the market to stabilize its upward movement."

In Guosheng Securities' view, the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on March 27 released a positive signal. In April, with the release of the first quarter data and the convening of the National Two Sessions, domestic policy hedging will continue to increase, which will push the A-share market out of the bottom and usher in repairs.

"For the market, the quarterly reports of listed companies, the first quarter and the second quarter of the macroeconomic (April or May) economic data are gradually released, and the policy is gradually taking effect, and the decline in demand and corporate profits has slowed down. Then the stock market The real bottom and reversal point in time may be just then. "Industrial Securities analysis.

"From an international perspective, the current epidemic is spreading globally and has not been curbed, affecting Chinese export companies' orders and financial market risk appetite; domestically, the economic data to be disclosed in April and the earnings data of listed companies will have a double suppression on the stock market. "Fangzheng Securities pointed out that the macro policy hedges the losses after the epidemic, and the positive and negative of the stock market are also present, or there will be a volatile market. (Finish)