China News Service Client, Beijing, March 31 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 31st. In March, China's manufacturing PMI showed a V-shaped rebound, rising to 52%. Why is there a sharp recovery? Does it represent a recovery in the economy? Is the PMI recovery sustainable?

Manufacturing PMI index. From the National Bureau of Statistics

Why is there a sharp recovery?

Data show that China's purchasing manager index fell sharply last month and the base rose from the previous month. Among them, the manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, a 16.3% increase from the previous month.

The non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, an increase of 22.7 percentage points from the previous month; the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0%, an increase of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Why did PMI pick up so much from February? It is understood that the purchasing manager index is a chain index, which reflects the economic changes in this month compared with the previous month. The magnitude of the change has a great relationship with the base of the previous month.

The head of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics said that since the beginning of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has severely impacted the Chinese economy, especially the February purchasing manager index fell to an all-time low, even lower than during the 2008 international financial crisis. Significantly shrink. In March, the situation of epidemic prevention and control continued to improve, and the resumption of production and production of enterprises accelerated significantly.

As of March 25, among the companies surveyed by national procurement managers, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6%, an increase of 17.7 percentage points from the survey results on February 25, and the order of production and living has been steadily restored.

The above-mentioned person in charge said that these data show that the company's production and operation conditions in March have significantly changed from February.

Non-manufacturing business activity index. From the National Bureau of Statistics

Does it represent a recovery in the economy?

The PMI index is a leading indicator for economic monitoring. 50% is the waterline of prosperity and decline. When the PMI is above 50%, it reflects economic expansion. So, does the March PMI rise to more than 50.0%, does it represent a recovery in the economy?

"Purchasing manager index is a monthly chain index reflecting the economic trend, which can sensitively reflect the short-term changes in the economy." The person in charge said that the significant increase in the purchasing manager index in March compared with February is a reflection of the current resumption of production and production of most companies. The order has been advanced, and the production and operation of the enterprise has improved from last month, but it does not mean that the actual production and operation of the enterprise has been restored to the pre-epidemic level.

In March, the PMI index was 52.0%. It can be intuitively understood that the production and operation conditions of more than half of the companies in March were better than in February.

However, the person in charge said that under normal circumstances, when the PMI changes in the same direction for more than three consecutive months, it can reflect the trend of economic operation. Just a single month of data rose to the line of prosperity and dryness, it can not be judged that our economy has fully recovered Normal level, to achieve a trend improvement, we need to continue to observe changes.

Workers work on the final assembly line. Photo by Zhang Chang from China News Agency

Is the PMI recovery sustainable?

The person in charge believes that the PMI index is a month-on-month indicator and is susceptible to factors such as workdays, seasons, and bases. The rebound of PMI data in March can only indicate that the production and operation of the company has improved this month compared with February.

"When the economy fluctuates greatly, sometimes the trend of the chain index and the year-on-year indicator may diverge." The person in charge said that because the current major macroeconomic data are mostly year-on-year indicators, the rebound of the PMI does not mean that other major macros Economic data is bound to change in the same direction.

The National Bureau of Statistics judges that although the epidemic prevention and control in China has achieved important results in stages and the recovery of economic and social order is accelerating, the resumption of production and resumption of enterprises has not yet returned to the normal level before the epidemic. In addition, the overseas epidemic situation has accelerated in March The situation, China ’s economic development is facing new challenges. Based on the PMI data in March, it is not yet possible to determine whether the economy has stabilized and rebounded. Whether the economy is picking up depends on whether the purchasing manager index can continue to expand in the next few months. Later trends still need to be closely monitored. . (Finish)