China News Service, March 31. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, on March 31, 2020, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted it.
In March 2020, China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic and social development achieved positive results. The situation of the epidemic prevention and control continued to improve, the order of production and living was steadily restored, and the resumption of production and production of enterprises accelerated significantly. The purchasing managers' index of China dropped sharply last month, and the base rebounded month-on-month. Among them, the manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, up 16.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from the previous month; comprehensive PMI The output index was 53.0%, an increase of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month. As of March 25, among the companies surveyed by national procurement managers, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6%, an increase of 17.7 percentage points from the February survey. Among them, the re-recovery rate of manufacturing enterprises was 98.7%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points.
I. The PMI of 21 manufacturing industries has rebounded to varying degrees
In March, except for the price index, all sub-indices of the manufacturing purchasing managers index rebounded. The main features are as follows:
First, market supply and demand have improved, and corporate purchases have increased sequentially. The production index and new order index were 54.1% and 52.0%, respectively, up 26.3 and 22.7 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 2.1 percentage points higher than the new order index, indicating that the manufacturing capacity has recovered. The purchasing volume index was 52.7%, an increase of 23.4 percentage points from the previous month, and corporate procurement activities were more active than last month.
Second, the effects of policies have gradually emerged, and corporate expectations have picked up. The expected index of manufacturing operations was 54.4%, an increase of 12.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the manufacturing of food, wine and beverage refined tea, medicine, special equipment, automobiles, computer communication electronic equipment, etc. were all above average.
Third, new kinetic energy recovered faster, and the high-tech manufacturing PMI was higher than the overall. From the perspective of key areas, the high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 55.8%, 54.5%, and 52.0%, of which the PMI of high-tech manufacturing is 3.8 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry.
Fourth, companies of different sizes have rebounded, and large-scale enterprises have recovered relatively quickly. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 52.6%, 51.5%, and 50.9%, up 16.3, 16.0, and 16.8 percentage points from the previous month. Judging from market expectations, the expected indexes of production and operation activities of large, medium and small enterprises were 55.5%, 52.5% and 54.0%, respectively, which were higher than 11.2, 12.5 and 16.6 percentage points last month.
Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply in March, the survey results show that the pressure on production and operation of enterprises is still relatively large. The proportion of companies reflecting tight funding and insufficient market demand this month were 41.7% and 52.3%, up 2.6 and 4.1 from the previous month. percentage point. From the external environment, the epidemic is spreading rapidly around the world, and the growth of world economy and trade has been severely impacted, bringing new severe challenges to our economy. In March, China's new export order index and import index for manufacturing industries were 46.4% and 48.4%, respectively. Although they rebounded from the previous month, they were at a relatively low level.
2. Non-manufacturing business activity index bottomed out
In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.3%, which was 22.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. Other sub-indices also rebounded to varying degrees.
The overall service industry is picking up. The service industry business activity index was 51.8%, an increase of 21.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except the securities industry, other industries have rebounded to varying degrees. Among them, the business activity index in the transportation, retail, and banking industries is relatively high. From market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 56.8%, an increase of 17.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the postal express, retail, and telecommunications industries were higher than the overall. The business activity index of the living service industry was 50.2%, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than the overall service industry index.Among them, the catering, tourism, residential services, culture, sports, and entertainment industries were affected by the epidemic, and the progress of resumption and production was lagging behind the overall service industry The business activity index continued to lie in the contraction range.
Accelerate the recovery of construction industry production. The business activity index of the construction industry was 55.1%, an increase of 28.5 percentage points from the previous month, of which the civil engineering construction industry was 62.4%. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the construction industry employment index and business activity expectation index were 53.1% and 59.9%, respectively, up 20.8 and 18.1 percentage points from the previous month.
3. The overall recovery of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises is relatively rapid
In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0%, an increase of 24.1 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index constituting the comprehensive PMI output index were 54.1% and 52.3%, respectively, which were different from the previous month. The degree has picked up.
Although the purchasing manager index in March reflects that the production and operation status of the company has significantly changed from February this year, new and major changes in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic situation at home and abroad are still occurring. The world epidemic situation is accelerating and spreading. The world economic and trade growth has been severely impacted, the pressure on China's epidemic situation has increased, and economic development, especially the recovery of the industrial chain, is facing new challenges. The future trend of the PMI still needs continuous attention.
The head of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics answered reporters' questions on the apparent rise in the purchasing manager index in March
On March 31, 2020, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics released the China Purchasing Managers Index. The head of the Service Industry Survey Center accepted an exclusive interview with China Information News on related issues.
Q: The China purchasing manager index just released in March picked up sharply from February. Why did it pick up so much from February?
Answer: The purchasing manager index is a chain index, which reflects the economic changes in this month compared with the previous month. The magnitude of the change has a great relationship with the base of the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has severely impacted China's economy. In particular, the purchasing manager index fell to a record low in February, even lower than during the 2008 international financial crisis. Economic activity has contracted significantly in the short term. In March, China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic and social development achieved positive results. The situation of the epidemic prevention and control continued to improve, and the resumption of production and production of enterprises accelerated significantly. As of March 25, among the companies surveyed by national procurement managers, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6%, an increase of 17.7 percentage points from the survey results on February 25, and the order of production and living has been steadily restored. In March, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and the comprehensive PMI output index fell sharply in February, and the base rose from the previous month. These data indicate that the production and operation status of enterprises in March has significantly changed from February.
Q: Does the PMI rise above 50.0% in March?
A: The purchasing manager index is a monthly chain index reflecting the economic trend and can sensitively reflect the short-term changes in the economy. The significant increase in the purchasing managers' index in March compared with February reflects the current orderly progress of most companies following the resumption of work and production, and the company's production and operation situation has improved from the previous month, but it does not mean that the actual production and operation of the company has returned to the epidemic situation. Before the level. Under normal circumstances, when the PMI changes in the same direction for more than three consecutive months, it can reflect the trend of economic operation. Just one month of data rose to the line of prosperity and dryness, it can not be judged that China's economy has fully returned to normal levels and achieved trend To improve, we need to continue to observe changes.
Q: How is the purchasing manager index compiled?
A: According to the internationally accepted algorithm, the manufacturing PMI is weighted by five sub-indexes: new order, production, employees, supplier delivery time, and raw material inventory. Each sub-index is calculated using the diffusion index method. Taking the production index as an example, according to the answer of the enterprise purchasing manager to the question "The production volume of the main products of this month has changed from last month", the percentage and the answer of the "increased" number of enterprises and the answer are "same" as last month. The production index can be obtained by adding half of the number of enterprises.
Therefore, the March PMI index was 52.0%. It can be intuitively understood that more than half of the enterprises in March had better production and operation conditions than in February.
Q: Will the changes in the PMI data in March indicate that other major macroeconomic data will change simultaneously? Is the PMI recovery sustainable?
Answer: The PMI index is a monthly chain index, which is susceptible to factors such as workdays, seasons, and bases. Compared with the year-on-year index, the data has a larger volatility and is more suitable to reflect changes in the short-term economic situation. The year-on-year indicator generally reflects the change of the current period compared with the same period of last year. It is less affected by seasonal factors and the data fluctuation is relatively smooth. It is more suitable to reflect long-term trends, but it is not sensitive to short-term changes. In addition, because the purchasing manager index is a quantitative indicator formed on the basis of a qualitative survey, it cannot accurately reflect the changes in the absolute values of various indicators such as the production volume of the enterprise. The rise in the PMI data in March can only represent the production and operation status of the company compared to this month. It improved in February.
When there are large fluctuations in the economy, sometimes the trend of the chain index and the year-on-year index may diverge. Since the main macroeconomic data are mostly year-on-year indicators, the rebound of the PMI from the previous month does not mean that other major macroeconomic data will necessarily change in the same direction.
Although the epidemic prevention and control in China has achieved important results at present and the economic and social order is accelerating, the resumption of production and resumption of production has not yet returned to the normal level before the epidemic. In addition, the overseas epidemic situation has accelerated and spread in March. Facing new challenges, the PMI data in March alone cannot tell whether the economy has stabilized and rebounded, and whether the economy is picking up depends on whether the purchasing manager's index can continue to expand in the next few months. Later trends still need to be closely monitored.