Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 29th, title: Spring brings together the power of recovery-written on the end of the Chinese economy in the first quarter of 2020

Xinhua News Agency reporter

The outbreak of new crown pneumonia is sudden, and China's economy and society are facing challenges again. Some economic indicators have fallen and some industries have been affected. Facing the impact of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core reviewed the situation, made strategic plans, made scientific decisions, and made accurate policies to coordinate the advancement of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Over the past two months, the country's epidemic prevention and control has achieved important results in stages, and the economic and social order has been restored.

The cold goes with the severe winter, and the spring willows come. At the end of March, the warm sun came as expected, and the forces of China's economic recovery were converging.

Recovery: The economic impact of the epidemic is short-term and generally manageable

A set of satellite remote sensing data shows such a picture:

China is lighting up-China's night light data is picking up recently. In the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other urban agglomerations, as people return to work in an orderly manner and resume work, the brightness of the lights continues to increase.

Traffic is busy-compared with the middle of March, the ship's track has been significantly extended from the Bohai Bay to the Yangtze River estuary and the Beibu Gulf area.

Cultivated land is getting greener—the six major winter wheat producing areas in China. The growth of winter wheat is flat or better than last year's proportion was close to 90%, which is generally better than normal.

The dazzling lights, busy traffic, and green land are signals that the Chinese economy is gradually rejuvenating this spring.

No one had ever imagined that in the year when a well-off society was fully established and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" ended, it would encounter the "black swan" of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the beginning of the year, and the Chinese economy was affected first in the first quarter.

Data show that in the first two months, major indicators such as investment, consumption, exports, and industry all experienced double-digit declines, and the unemployment rate also rose in stages.

"It can be said that the breadth and depth of the epidemic shock were beyond expectations, but from the nature and trend of the main indicator changes, the epidemic shock is short-term and generally controllable, and part of the impact reflects the price to be paid to fight the epidemic. There is no need to magnify its negative impact. "Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.

Sheng Laiyun analysis, from January to February, the main indicators of agriculture, industry, investment and trade accounted for a small proportion of the year. Generally, the total economic volume in the second half of the year accounts for 55% of the full year and 45% in the first half of the year, with only about 20% in the first quarter. As long as the economy accelerates after the second quarter, there will be opportunities to make up for the economic losses from January to February.

Resolutely win the people's war against epidemic prevention and control! Over the past two months, after hard work across the country, the epidemic prevention and control has achieved important results in stages, and the economic and social order is speeding up.

"Resumption of work on February 10, and the rate of return to work on March 3 reached 100%, which has fully reached the pre-epidemic level." Wang Min, chairman of Xugong Group Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., told reporters that Xugong instructs suppliers to resume work safely and scientifically adjust production The plan is to guarantee the supply of long-term products, key products, and urgently needed products in the market, and seize overseas orders. Since the resumption of work, the indicators have been "new daily, high daily, and good daily."

XCMG is a microcosm of the resumption of work. The data shows that the average operating rate of industrial enterprises outside Hubei, except Hubei, is over 95%, and the return rate of SMEs is over 70%. National key foreign trade companies have basically resumed work, and 70% of key foreign trade companies have a capacity recovery rate of more than 70%. Large-scale supermarket chains and agricultural product wholesale markets have resumed work rates of over 99%, and catering, accommodation, and housekeeping companies have resumed work rates of 80%, 60%, and 40%, respectively.

"The streets in Shanghai are slowly increasing, and more and more restaurants and cafes are opening." According to a report on the website of the German "Star" magazine, the worst situation seems to have passed, and China is gradually returning to normal life.

Resilience: No change in fundamentals over the long term

At 10 am on March 28, China Railway Group (Wuhan) X8015 / 6 carried 50 containers from China Railway Union Central Wuhan Station. The train will depart from Alashankou and arrive in Duisburg, Germany, 15 days later.

This is the first China-Europe train to fly from Wuhan since the epidemic prevention and control, marking the return of normal operation of the China-Europe train (Wuhan).

The Chinese economy is also a train bound for spring. Facing the chill brought by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, snow and ice will always melt, and spring will finally come.

"Although the new crown pneumonia epidemic has obviously affected economic operation, China's economy has tremendous resilience and potential, and the long-term positive trend will not change." Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee judged scientifically and stated that China's economic crisis is Machine, long-term good toughness.

Resilience stems from China's unique institutional advantages-

Looking back, from the 1998 flood, the SARS epidemic, the Wenchuan earthquake, to the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy has always been able to turn crisis into opportunity in overcoming difficulties.

Relying on the UNPROFOR joint-supply cooperation mechanism, it has cumulatively transferred more than 70,000 tons of daily necessities to Hubei; the nation's unified dispatch of important supplies, and the masks ranged from "one is hard to find" to "billions of Nissan produced"; all sectors of society mobilized as of March 21 The investment in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation arranged at various levels of the country's finances reached 121.8 billion yuan ... The "epidemic" in this battle has once again made China's power of chess and concentrated efforts to do major things amazing.

"This epidemic has undoubtedly proved the advantages of the Chinese system." Martin Jacques, a senior researcher at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, commented that China has successfully resisted risks and controlled the epidemic by relying on its own system. China's economic activity is gradually recovering, and Chinese society is returning to normal.

Resilience stems from the solid foundation of a large country's economy-

"In the face of the new coronavirus, the Chinese economy is more resilient than it was in 2003." The South China Morning Post article makes such a judgment.

The world ’s second largest economy, the largest manufacturing country, the largest trade in goods, and the second largest inflow of foreign capital—China today has an economic volume of nearly 100 trillion yuan. It has a stronger ability to deal with shocks and a more resilient development. Also stronger.

Even with the impact of the epidemic, China's medical protection and daily supplies, comprehensive protection such as water, electricity and gas, as well as important basic industries such as steel, chemical, and transportation, have maintained normal operations. In the first two months, the total output value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 11.5 trillion yuan, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.2 trillion yuan, and the total investment in fixed assets was 3.3 trillion yuan. All this shows the powerful supply and adaptability of the big economies.

Resilience comes from the vast domestic market-

Retail giant Costco will open a second store in mainland China in Shanghai; Toyota will work with FAW to invest in an electric vehicle plant in Tianjin; Starbucks will invest USD 129 million in Kunshan, Jiangsu to build a green coffee roasting plant ... … Facing the impact of the epidemic, a group of strategic multinational companies did not stop, but accelerated the pace of setting up the Chinese market.

1.4 billion people, more than 400 million middle-income groups, and total retail sales of social consumer goods exceeding 40 trillion yuan ... A strong domestic market is the source of vitality for China's economy.

Some people are worried that under the influence of the epidemic, consumption in catering, tourism, and automobiles is suppressed. Can the consumer sector withstand the impact?

The fact is that although the epidemic has caused a large impact on traditional consumption, online consumption and other explosive growth. In the first two months, online retail sales of physical goods nationwide increased by 3% year-on-year, and new models and services such as fresh food e-commerce, telemedicine, online education, and online office expanded rapidly. Experts from the National Bureau of Statistics initially estimated that the consumer demand suppressed by the epidemic was about 1.5 trillion yuan, and it is expected to be gradually released after the epidemic has ended, and consumer consumption will even rebound.

The more difficult it is, the more comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective is needed to look at China's development, and the more it is necessary to strengthen and strengthen confidence.

"The epidemic did not hurt the 'bones and bones,' and the recovery of economic and social operational order was accelerated." Sheng Laiyun said that China's defense control measures have achieved positive results and have come out of the most difficult and arduous stage. Enterprises resumed work and production actively and orderly, and the economy Acceleration of operations will return to normal, and the impact of the epidemic will not change the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement.

Tactics: Efforts to complete the task of economic and social development throughout the year

"The outlook for the global economy in 2020 will be negative growth, and the recession will be at least as severe or even more severe than during the international financial crisis." In response to the impact of the global epidemic development, Georgieveva, president of the International Monetary Fund, judged so.

At present, major new changes are taking place in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, and in the economic situation. The epidemic situation abroad is accelerating and spreading, and the growth of the world economy and trade is being severely impacted. For some domestic enterprises, the "first half" test of the domestic epidemic situation has just passed, and the problem of the "second half" of the international epidemic situation has come.

"In early March, as the resumption of work and production continued, the company's production and trade volume resumed significantly. However, due to the intensification of the global epidemic, the proportion of customers jumping orders and cancelling orders reached 70% to 80%." General Manager of Xiamen Jinxinbo Machinery Co., Ltd. Zheng Ping said that since mid-March, the company has not received a foreign trade order, which "is worrying."

The more complicated the external environment, the more we must unswervingly do our own work, implement the new development concept, deepen the supply-side structural reforms, implement the detailed policies established, and move towards high-quality development in the face of overcoming difficulties.

Take multiple measures to make the "rice bowl" end stable and well-

123.9 billion yuan! This is the "relief bill" for the payment of three social insurance premium units in China in February, including retirement, unemployment, and work injury. It is expected that the reduction from February to June will exceed 500 billion yuan.

Periodic reduction and exemption of corporate social security premiums, implementation of the enterprise's deferred housing provident fund policy, support for undergraduates, migrant workers and other key groups in entrepreneurship and employment, and expansion of the beneficiary of the small and medium-sized enterprises' stable return policy ... Each policy is working to stabilize employment and promote SMEs Development and stabilization of the market's basic market.

Relieving difficulties and stabilizing basic foreign investment

Make good use of the export tax rebate and export credit insurance policies, expand export credit, expand diversified markets, accelerate the reduction of the negative list of foreign investment access, and continue to expand foreign market access ... Many measures have been made to "buy blood", "reduce burden" for enterprises Expand space. "

"China has increased the export tax rebate rate for more than 1,000 products, and 98% of the company's total export volume can benefit from this." Li Kangzhi, a financial officer at Chongqing International Composite Materials Co., Ltd., told reporters that this benefit can increase the tax refund of 11.4 million yuan this year. To help enterprises enhance product competitiveness and win more overseas orders.

Deepen the potential and actively and effectively expand domestic demand——

Nanjing, Jiangsu issued 318 million yuan of consumer vouchers to Hangzhou, and Zhejiang Province issued 1.68 billion yuan of vouchers ... Recently, consumer vouchers issued in many places have become the driving force of the people's "buy, buy and buy", and promote the further release of market demand.

A number of major highway projects, such as Beijing to Xiong'an Expressway, have been accelerated, and major railway projects, major energy projects, and major foreign-funded projects in China have basically resumed work. As of March 20, the resumption rate of 11,000 key projects in various regions was 89.1%. Special trillion-dollar bonds used for infrastructure construction are invested in various places, providing strong support for expanding investment.

Strengthen regulation and control, and strengthen macro policy hedging——

"It is imperative to study and propose a package of macro-policy measures that are actively responded to" "Active fiscal policy must be more proactive and prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate" "Appropriately increase the fiscal deficit rate and issue special government bonds" ... The deployment of the Bureau meeting means that the macro-control policies will be more effective in the next step.

In the critical period, key measures are needed; common destiny requires common response.

"China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, unswervingly expand reform and opening up, relax market access, continue to optimize the business environment, actively expand imports, expand foreign investment, and contribute to the stability of the world economy."

President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the G20 Special Summit on New Coronary Pneumonia held recently, introducing China's experience, explaining China's propositions, proposing China's initiatives, and calling on G20 members to take common measures to boost morale of world economic recovery .

The winter is over, and the spring flowers are blooming. After the epidemic examination, the strength of the recovery of all walks of life is turning into a lame step for the Chinese economy to meet the difficulties, marching forward towards the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and continuing to contribute China's strength for world development. (Reporters Han Jie, Chen Weiwei, Shen Wei, Fu Min)