Chinanews Client Beijing, March 30th (Xie Yiguan) On the 30th, the central bank restarted the reverse repo operation and "cut interest rates" by 20 basis points. However, the overall performance of A shares on the 30th was relatively weak, and the Shenzhen component index closed below 10,000 points again. Pass, but grain-related stocks rose strongly, and ventilator-related stocks also performed strongly.
Since March, the total net outflow of northbound funds was 69.523 billion. In this case, after entering April, how will the trend of A shares be interpreted?
Intraday chart of the Shanghai Index.
Agricultural stocks rose against the market, ventilator stocks upwind
On March 30, the opening of the A-share market was mixed. The three major stock indexes fell in early trading. The Shenzhen and GEM stocks fell more than 3% at one time. The Shenzhen stock index fell below the 10,000-point mark and the GEM index fell below 1900 points.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.90% to 2747.21 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.03% to 9904.95 points; the GEM Index fell 2.28% to 1864.48 points. The turnover of the two cities shrank to 633.1 billion yuan throughout the day.
Northbound funds outflowed 126 million yuan today, of which the Shanghai Stock Exchange outflow of 123 million yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange outflow of 103 million yuan. The total net outflow of northbound funds this month reached 69.523 billion yuan.
On the disk, 695 shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the daily limit of 41 shares; another 2,964 shares fell, and 50 shares fell. The industry sector was more green and less red. Shipbuilding, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, warehousing and logistics, engineering equipment, construction and other sectors rose sharply against the market; tourism, hotels, catering, software services, communications equipment, and media and entertainment fell the most. In the concept sector, the seed industry led the concept board, agricultural stocks performed strongly, and technology stocks were collectively depressed.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has spread in many countries. Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Egypt and other countries have announced restrictions on food exports to ensure domestic food supply. Affected by factors such as global food hoarding by consumers, rice prices in Thailand, the world's second largest grain exporter, rose to their highest level since August 2013. Recently, the prices of futures commodities such as soybeans, oats and wheat have been rising, and Chicago wheat futures prices have risen by more than 9% in March. These factors have helped domestic agricultural stocks rise against the market.
It is worth noting that the epidemic is spreading rapidly around the world, and foreign demand for medical equipment has increased dramatically, especially for invasive ventilators. The ventilator stocks were again facing the wind, and the related stocks in the aerospace long peak limit, Hejia shares, David Medical, Lepu Medical and so on rose sharply.
On the 30th, Xu Kemin, director of the Department of Industrial Policy and Regulations of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced at a press conference that there are 21 Chinese invasive ventilator manufacturers, of which 8 major products have obtained the EU mandatory CE certification. They account for one-fifth of global production capacity. The eight companies have a weekly production capacity of about 2,200 units. At present, about 20,000 units have been signed. At the same time, a large number of international orders are being negotiated every day.
Information map of the People's Bank of China. Photo by Li Huisi issued by China News Agency
Monetary easing is still underway, and the central bank's open market operation cuts interest rates
The central bank issued an announcement on the 30th. In order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, the People's Bank of China launched a 50 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 30, 2020 by way of interest rate bidding. 2.4% down 20 basis points.
The chief solid income analyst at CITIC Securities clearly commented that interest rate cuts had landed ahead of schedule and currency easing was still ongoing. Against the background that the global economy has been affected by the epidemic for a longer period of time, and its degree has deepened, with the further development of China's fiscal policy, there is still room for aggregate monetary policies, including RRR cuts, adjustments to benchmark deposit rates, and interest rate cuts.
Li Qilin, chief economist and director of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, pointed out that the central bank has responded to expectations of market interest rate cuts and cut the open market operation (OMO) interest rate by 20 basis points. According to the experience of synchronous adjustment in the past, it is expected that MLF (Intermediate Borrowing Convenience) and LPR (Basic Interest Rate for Payment) will also be reduced by at least 20BP in the future.
"Following the central bank's monetary policy will shift from 'prudent' to 'positive' again. In the second quarter, the risk-free rate of return will quickly open up new horizons." Guotai Junan macro team believes.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on March 27 pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the adjustment and implementation of macro policies. It is necessary to promptly study and propose a package of macroeconomic policies and measures that are actively responded to, proactive fiscal policies to be more proactive, prudent monetary policies to be more flexible and appropriate, appropriately increase the fiscal deficit rate, issue special government bonds, increase the scale of local government special bonds and guide loans Market interest rates have fallen and liquidity has remained reasonably adequate.
Data chart: Shareholders of a securities company's business department are concerned about stock market developments. Photo by China News Agency reporter Luo Yunfei
Institution: A-share market may usher in a bottom turning point in April
"Entering April 2020, A-shares will gradually stabilize and build a bottom." From China Merchants Securities' perspective, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to increase efforts to stabilize growth, and the policy environment will be conducive to A-shares. The uncertainty faced by A-shares in April mainly comes from risks such as the deterioration of overseas epidemics and economic stagnation. "The strength of domestic policies and the progress of overseas epidemics will become the determining force for the direction of A shares."
Anson Securities strategy team believes that although the A-share market is facing downward pressure from external demand, the epidemic in China has been brought under control first, and the economy has shown signs of gradual recovery. With the firm promotion and support of policies, the recovery trend of China's economy, especially the domestic demand sector, will be more certain. In this process, liquidity is expected to remain abundant.
"And the overall valuation of the A-share market is already at the bottom of history, so it should be strategically optimistic rather than pessimistic. Short-term investors are affected by external uncertainties and risk appetite is suppressed. In the medium term, A-shares are currently in a bull market transition. Period. "Anxin Securities believes.
"Overseas markets (especially U.S. stocks) will slowly decline after a recent rebound to reflect the deteriorating economic fundamentals." CITIC Securities pointed out that China's stocks and interest rate bonds have a stronger appeal than overseas developed country assets, and are a recapitalization of global funds. First choice during configuration.
CITIC Securities expects that the marginal warming of liquidity in April and the resumption of foreign capital inflows will be the most important supporting force at the bottom of the market. In mid-April, a package of policies to stimulate the launch will form a catalyst, and the A-share market will usher in a bottom inflection point and start the second quarter. Up. (Finish)