Morgan Stanley: Chinese and Japanese stock markets are more favored and are expected to outperform emerging markets

(Fighting new crown pneumonia) Morgan Stanley: Chinese and Japanese stock markets are more favored and are expected to outperform emerging markets

China News Agency, Beijing, March 28 (Xia Bin) Jonathan Garner, head of Morgan Stanley's Asia and emerging markets equity strategy department, said in an online conference that despite the recent rebound in global stock markets, Because the epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia in many countries has not been truly controlled, the stock market still has downside risks. Against this background, relatively speaking, China and Japan's stock markets will be more favored and are expected to outperform emerging markets.

Guo Qiangsheng believes that if the epidemic in areas outside China such as Europe and the United States can be better controlled, the Asia-Pacific stock market may realize its forecasted optimistic assumptions, that is, there is a potential opportunity to rise by about 30% from the current level.

Morgan Stanley predicts that by the end of this year, the MSCI (Ming Sheng) emerging market index will be basically flat at the current level, and the MSCI China Index and the Japan Topix Index will rise slightly.

Regarding the relatively optimistic judgment of the Chinese market, Guo Qiangsheng said that part of the reason is that the epidemic containment measures adopted by China and the subsequent economic recovery trajectory are clearer than those of other emerging market countries. And China is implementing targeted macroeconomic stabilization measures, with more fiscal and monetary policy tools in place, which will also help boost investor confidence.

Based on this, Morgan Stanley has upgraded the MSCI China Index and Chinese stocks to an "overweight" rating in early March.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley continues to favor the Japanese stock market structurally. With the recent weakening of the yen against the US dollar and the increase in the size of the ETF (trading open index fund) by the Bank of Japan, the Japanese stock market has now outperformed emerging markets.

Regarding the global economic prospects, Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, bluntly stated that due to the rapid response and strong policies of various countries, global economic growth will slow down sharply this year. Great Depression. "

He predicted that China would be the first country to step out of the economy affected by the epidemic, and the recovery would begin in the second quarter of this year. (Finish)