Chinanews Client Beijing, March 27th (Xie Yiguan) On March 26th, U.S. stocks soared again, now "Sanlianyang", and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 4000 points in three days, an increase of up to 21.3%, which was October 1931. Since the best 3 consecutive days of gains, it has entered a theoretical "technical bull market".
Faced with the performance of US stocks, many people wonder whether the crisis of the US stock market's plunge has been lifted? Start to reverse and enter a new round of bull market?
The Dow traded intraday.
Violent rallies in late trading, Dow enters "technical bull market"
Before the market on the 26th, data released by the United States showed that 3.283 million people claimed unemployment benefits early in the week of March 21. This is the first time in the history of the United States that there are millions of claims for unemployment benefits, far exceeding the record of 695,000 in the 1982 world economic crisis and 667,000 in the financial crisis in 2008.
However, due to market expectations, this data did not have an impact on U.S. stocks. On March 26, U.S. stocks fluctuated higher in the early morning, and they are now violently pulled up. , An increase of up to 21.3%, the best increase for three consecutive days since October 1931. Based on this increase, the Dow entered a "technical bull market."
At the same time, the US stock market and other financial markets also ushered in two great news. On the evening of the 25th local time in the United States, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved a US $ 2 trillion economic stimulus package to respond to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
On the 26th, the statement of the G20 Special Summit on New Crown Pneumonia showed that the G20 will start a US $ 5 trillion economic plan to deal with the negative impact of the epidemic on global society, the economy and finance, and Support the central banks of various countries to take measures to promote financial stability and enhance liquidity in global markets.
As of the close, the Dow rose 1351.62 points, or 6.38%, to 22552.17 points; the Nasdaq rose 413.24 points, or 5.60%, to 7779.54 points; the S & P 500 rose 154.51 points, or 6.24%, to 2,630.07 points, and returned to 2,600 points the above.
Large U.S. technology stocks rose, financial stocks rose, and Boeing led the Dow. After closing up 24.25% on Wednesday, the biggest one-day gain since listing in 1962, Boeing closed up 13.66% on Thursday, and it has risen 84.64% this week.
The liquidity tension of the US dollar eased. Late in New York on Thursday, the US dollar index fell 1.51% to 99.4181, a three-day losing streak and a new low in nearly two weeks. Higher US stocks boosted European stock markets. On the 26th, the German DAX index rose 1.28% to 10,000.96 points, the French CAC40 index rose 2.51% to 4435.58 points, and the British FTSE 100 index rose 2.24% to 5815.73 points.
On March 12, local time, a masked citizen walked past the New York Stock Exchange. Photo by Liao Pan of China News Agency
Are US stocks bottoming out or will they bottom out again?
Stephen Suttmeier, a technology research strategy analyst at Bank of America, said in a report that there was a "90% rise" in U.S. stocks on Tuesday, which is a bullish sign in an extreme oversold environment, laying the foundation for the formation of the bottom of the stock market. bottom.
Stephen Suttmeier said, "If there is a 90% rise in multi-day trading days, you can confirm the formation of the outsole, which was confirmed from the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009, and in 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Happening."
Saut Strategy analyst Andrew Adams also said that there are already enough signs that the market has recently bottomed or is approaching the bottom. However, the stock market will not take off immediately. It is very important that during major market crashes (such as the two stock disasters that occurred in 1987 and 2008), the stock market will often rebound sharply, and then it will bottom out again and even break through. Previous low.
Some analysts believe that the stock market will not bottom out before new diagnosed cases of new global pneumonia begin to decline. On Thursday, safe-haven assets were still sought after by the market. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.06% at $ 1651.7 per ounce. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds fell broadly. The yield on 5-year Treasury notes was flat at 0.532%, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell 2.1 basis points to 0.853%.
Todd Jablonski, chief investment officer at Principal Global Investors, said that only if the data indicates that the risk outlook for the outbreak itself is improving, can investors' confidence in the economy's return to growth be truly enhanced.
According to Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, Europe's top independent macro research institute, the S & P 500 Index has not bottomed out yet. He said that with the rapid spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the US economy will be in recession for at least the next summer.
National Mall in Washington, USA. Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
U.S. economy may face severe recession
Charles Dumas said that although US policymakers have responded to the new crown pneumonia crisis, it is more effective than the 2008 financial crisis. However, as other countries require companies to close in order to prevent the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in their own countries, which will lead to a slowdown in economic growth, the US economy will be hit by a second wave.
Barclays' chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen said that as the US stimulus bill is passed, the market's attention will return to two things: Can it stop mass layoffs? Does the stimulus work?
According to Michael Gapen, if there are layoffs, but they do not seem to be serious, most of the severely affected areas will be brought under control in two to three weeks, and US GDP is expected to bottom out in the second quarter and fall by 7%. But if the epidemic is more severe, GDP could fall by 10%. According to the same standards, the unemployment rate may be around 7%, or as high as 9%.
According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6:45 am on March 27, Beijing time, a total of 83,507 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States have become the country with the largest number of confirmed cases worldwide. The number of deaths has reached 1201. From the 23rd, the number of new cases per day in the United States has exceeded 10,000.
March 25, local time, reporters photographed the Washington Monument. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the annual "Cherry Blossom Festival" in Washington, the capital of the United States, had to end early. Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong
In order to cope with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Fed has launched a package of stimulus policies such as unlimited quantitative easing. If the economy worsens, many people worry that the Fed will still have "big moves" available?
According to US media reports on the 26th, Fed Chairman Powell said in an interview that the current economy is likely to decline and the Fed has not run out of "ammunition". There is still room for policy. The Fed will continue to provide loans "directly and very actively". Homes and businesses provide credit support.
"The current situation is not a typical economic downturn, and there are no major problems with the economy." Powell pointed out that the top priority is to control the epidemic. When the economy can restart depends on the development of the epidemic, and the economy is expected to recover strongly in the second half of the year.
Facing the impact of the suspension of social activities, US President Trump can't wait to restart the economy. According to foreign media reports, Trump said at the White House conference on the 26th that "we must start this process as soon as possible", and some areas less affected by the epidemic may be the first to resume work. Trump said plans will be revealed next week.
Why is Trump anxious to restart the economy? According to a study by the World Federation of Large Enterprises, approximately 23 million Americans are at risk of unemployment under the impact of the epidemic. If the crisis lasts two or three months, 25% to 50% of the 23 million high-risk unemployed will be unemployed.
"It's no secret that the employment situation will be tough in the foreseeable future," said Mike Loewengart, managing director of E-Trade Financial's investment strategy in New Jersey. "The real question now is whether the current US stimulus package is sufficient to support the needs of Americans. Something. "(End)