The Federal Reserve will release unlimited water!
Is the Shanghai Index back to 2,700?
On the evening of March 23, the Federal Reserve announced the opening of unlimited QE. However, as of the close of the day, the three major US stock indexes closed down collectively. Dow Jones was 18591.93, down 3.04%, Nasdaq 6866.67, down 0.27%, and S & P 500 was 2237.40, down 2.93%.
US stocks fell endlessly. On March 24, A shares still went out of their independent market. As of the close, the Shanghai Index closed up 2.34% and returned to 2,700 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed up 2.37% and the GEM closed up 2.73%. The gold and consumer sectors of the two cities led the gains, and the 5G and auto sectors were stimulated by the good news in the afternoon. Northbound funds inflowed 5.101 billion yuan throughout the day, and more than 3,200 stocks in the two cities became popular.
More than 3200 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose, gold stocks rose sharply
Not only A shares, but in the context of the rescue of multi-national central banks, the Asia-Pacific stock market closed up across the board on March 24. The Korea Composite Index rose 8.6% to 1609.97 points, the largest increase since November 2008; the Nikkei 225 Index closed up. 7.13%, at 18092.35 points, the largest increase since mid-February 2016; Australia's ASX200 index rose 4.17% to 4735.7 points; New Zealand NZX50 index rose 7.18% to 9109.15 points.
Sight turned back to China. As of the close, the three major Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes collectively closed up more than 2%. 3261 stocks in the two cities rose and 489 stocks fell. Among them, 88 stocks hit a daily limit and 14 stocks hit a daily limit.
When the Fed announced the opening of unlimited QE, the spot gold's gains once expanded to more than 2% yesterday. In the past three trading days, the price rose by more than 110 US dollars per ounce. This is also manifested in A shares. Yesterday, the gold concept sector continued to rise. Chifeng Gold, Oriental Jinyu, Intime Gold, Shandong Gold, and Cuihua Jewelry had daily limit, and Hunan Gold, Hengbang, and CICC Gold followed suit.
The anti-fall consumer stocks also performed. The beer concept changed and Tsingtao Brewery took the lead in daily limit. Chongqing Beer, Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, Lanzhou Huanghe, and others followed suit. The influence of the internet celebrity economy has strengthened, with Zhongchang Data, Gui Faxiang, Saturday and Tianchuang Fashion collective daily limit.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requests to accelerate the construction of 5G networks, 5G welcomes good
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice proposing that to speed up the construction of 5G networks, basic telecommunications companies should further optimize their work processes, seize the construction period, and minimize the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic; adjust the 700MHz band frequency use plan, accelerate the implementation of the 700MHz band 5G frequency use license, and release it in due course Partial 5G millimeter wave frequency use planning; promote 5G + VR / AR, live broadcast and other applications to promote new information consumption; organize 5G industry virtual private network research and trials, continue to support research and development in key areas such as 5G core chips, and foster 5G Network security industry ecology.
Stimulated by news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to accelerate the progress of 5G network construction, the 5G sector rebounded sharply in the end, the state-of-the-art technology daily limit, Yitong Century subsequently closed the board, Guangxun Technology, Wuhan Fangu, etc. have all risen.
Biggest variable: Is the US economy likely to decline?
Since March, the Federal Reserve has frequently added currency easing, including interest rate cuts, asset purchases, liquidity swaps with other central banks, and a range of liquidity tools. How effective are these measures? Zhang Ming, chief economist at Ping An Securities, pointed out that the large-scale monetary easing by the Federal Reserve has helped to stabilize financial markets to some extent, but it is difficult to prevent the US economy from falling into recession. The measures announced so far by the Federal Reserve can basically calm liquidity shortages in financial markets and avoid panic selling of assets by financial institutions due to insufficient liquidity and its negative effects. However, the biggest difference between this global financial market turmoil and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis is that the cause of this turmoil is the impact of the epidemic on the real economy. Therefore, unless the US government can introduce sufficiently strong policy measures to curb the spread of the pneumonia epidemic in the United States, the Fed's loose monetary policy alone will not be enough to quell financial market turmoil.
The possibility of a recession in the US economy is not only the largest change in the US stock market, but also the global capital market.
Can US stocks stop falling next? Li Qilin, chief economist and director of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, commented that the Federal Reserve opened an unlimited amount of QE as "useless easing." Li Qilin believes that the liquidity risk that caused the plunge of U.S. stocks and continuous melting has basically been lifted, and the period of market slump has passed. Next, the market will price the risk of recession, which means that the bear market and the U.S. debt market will continue. What the Fed can do is "swap time for space". The introduction of this policy is to delay the risk of centralized liquidation caused by economic stagnation and contraction of internal and external liquidity of enterprises and residential sectors, and to truly restore the assets of enterprises and residential sectors. The core of the balance sheet remains epidemic resistance.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the Fed's policies will alleviate the shock of the job market to a certain extent and gain time to fight the epidemic, but it will not fundamentally reverse the economic recession and it will be difficult to change the United States in the first half of the year. There is a technical recession, but the impact of the epidemic on the economy is unlikely to last for a long time. If the US epidemic is basically controlled in the second quarter, the economy will rebound in the third quarter. In view of the fact that this economic recession does not originate from endogenous resource mismatch, once the short-term exogenous shock subsides, the suppressed consumption, investment and trade activities will recover quickly, and the macroeconomic risk of falling into a continuous recession is not high. .
Li Qilin pointed out that for domestic asset allocation, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the decline in external demand on aggregate demand and the negative transmission of pressure from the export industry chain on consumption and manufacturing investment.
A shares are bottoming out now, are there investment opportunities?
Do A shares have investment opportunities? Chen Guo, a strategic analyst at Anson Securities, believes that on the one hand investors need to see that the recent sharp decline in overseas financial markets is actually due to the impact of liquidity tension and panic, and the current liquidity problems and panic have begun to appear marginal Signs of improvement have made it possible for global risk assets to recover short-term after a sharp decline.
On the other hand, Chen Guo believes that from the medium-term perspective, the A-share market trend will not continue to be completely synchronized with overseas. After the extreme panic has passed, the asset trends of various countries will diverge according to their respective fundamentals. The fundamental trend of China is different from overseas. The meso-level data indicators of the Chinese economy have recently begun to show marginal improvement. It is expected that after the implementation of further policies in the future, its sustainability and magnitude are worth looking forward to.
Chen Guo judged that for domestic asset allocation, attention needs to be paid to the impact of the decline in external demand on aggregate demand and the negative transmission of pressure from the export industry chain on consumption and manufacturing investment. The lifting of liquidity risk is beneficial to the domestic bond market, and may be beneficial to the previous Some stocks that were killed by liquidity shock.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the US stock market shock has also formed a certain impact on the A-share market, but the impact is short-term. In the medium and long term, as US stocks gradually complete the bottom-out and rapid decline process, there may be shocks and declines later, and investor panic will ease, which will give the A-share market a chance to rebound. The markets of developed countries have peaked and declined, and the economic growth rate has also slowed. Therefore, it is a big trend for global capital to move from developed markets to emerging markets. Among emerging markets, China's capital market is the most attractive. After the epidemic, the overseas market will begin to stabilize, and the A-share market will usher in the opportunity to resume its rise.
Analysts at CITIC Securities said that it is expected that the four major market bottoming signals of overseas epidemic, global liquidity, US stock market volatility, and domestic policy will gradually become clear in the coming weeks, and A shares are in the best allocation window for the whole year.
■ Investor Story
The concept of a stock speculator was continuously lowered
Although some analysts believe that A-shares are in the best allocation window for the whole year, some investors still have "some drumming" in their hearts. Xiaozhang, a shareholder, said, "The stock market is still volatile, although some say that A-shares are avoiding Dangerous port, but as a shareholder, I still feel a little scared. After all, I think it is difficult for A-shares to survive on their own under globalization and not dare to make a bottom-up. " According to her, she had previously held the concept of stock masks to search Yute, "I have entered the high level, and now there are several limit stops, and nothing has fallen. Now the air vent has passed, I don't know how long it can fly, so I ran."
Shareholder Xiao Zhang told reporters that she had already carried out a clearance a few days ago. As an ordinary investor, all she can do is adjust the position to a suitable position.
Another shareholder told reporters, "The three stocks in hand, the stocks with the most positions held the largest decline of nearly 50%. The reason for buying at that time was that the stock was a leader in technology stocks, supported by performance, with good fundamentals, and bought by value investment. However, when the decline was widened, I didn't expect to make a dip in the mid-mountainside. The losses continued to expand, and a small part of the meat was cut. Most of them were waiting for the rebound. I believe that the Chinese stock market will weather the economic crisis and recover smoothly. "
Beijing News reporter Zhang Siyuan Gu Zhijuan