In order to change the house where the child went to school closer, Mumu (pseudonym) sold a house near Beijing Chaoyang Park in November last year. According to the original plan, he has already signed a satisfactory second-hand house at this time. But an epidemic made all his calculations have to be postponed.

Xiao Gong (pseudonym) unexpectedly sold her house in Xinjiekou, Beijing in March. The buyer visited the house before the epidemic, and the total price was only slightly lower than the listed price. Anxious.

The traditional “Little Spring in March” has passed 2/3. Real estate agent Zhou Hong (pseudonym) has not watched it offline after the Spring Festival. All communication with potential customers and owners is carried out through WeChat. Zhou Hong said, "This was unimaginable in the past." There seems to be no other way than to wait.

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has rapidly "frozen" the second-hand housing market. Everyone in the market has to meet sudden changes.

Under the epidemic, the deal was "frozen". The homeowner sold the old house but could not buy a new one.

In November last year, Mumu sold a house near Beijing Chaoyang Park. "The child is going to school in Dongcheng and wants to get closer." In the next house, Mumu's preferred lot is near the workers' body and Chaoyangmen. Before the new crown pneumonia epidemic, he "surveyed" Sanlitun's first happiness square and a neighborhood next to Chaoyangmen. Both were not very satisfied. For example, Chaoyangmen's neighborhood was an old neighborhood and there was no parking space.

The house in Chaoyang Park was sold for a total price of more than 6 million. In a blink of an eye, 4 months have passed, and the last sum of money for selling a house was also hit on the wooden account last week, but unfortunately I was holding the money, but there was no place to spend it-when the epidemic is out, when can I buy the next house On, it becomes distant.

According to Mumu's original plan, as soon as the money arrived, he quickly bought the next suite. The next step was to renovate the house. "If there is no epidemic situation, I should have signed it, but it's enough now." Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the real estate platform that Mumu separated and looked at, all the communities concerned have not been updated anymore. There are no new listings, doubled, and all transactions are 0. Even the old intermediary who "harassed" him constantly and issued apartment plans has stopped talking recently and has all stopped. "It feels really 'frozen'," Mumu said.

Data from the Beijing Municipal Committee of Housing and Urban-Rural Development show that in February 2020, Beijing's second-hand housing network signing was only 3629 units, down 58% month-on-month and 40% year-on-year. Central Plains Real Estate data shows that from March 1st to 17th, Beijing has 3,567 second-hand housing and residential home signing nets. This figure was 6,971 units during the same period in 2019. The net signing has fallen by 49%, and the actual market decline is more than 60%. Lags behind the real transaction situation in the market).

"The real estate agent who helped me find a house is from a foreign country and hasn't returned to Beijing yet. A conservative estimate is that it will be restarted (market) in May, and the whole system will work normally, at least until summer before buying a house. Now Just waiting, and in addition, I am a little looking forward to whether the house prices will drop after the epidemic. "Mumu predicts.

As a person with a house now, Mumu is not panic, but some people in this market are not as good as him. Mumu said that the young couple who bought his house last year recently felt "lost." "The district was closed, there was no way to decorate it, no way to move, and there was always the idea of ​​buying expensive. They felt very wronged and regretted it."

The offline agent was almost stagnant. The agent was worried: Who would dare to buy a house without real viewing?

Zhou Hong, a real estate agent in a certain area in Beijing's South City, did not return to his hometown during the Spring Festival this year. Despite this, there seems to be no place to stay in Beijing. If there is no epidemic situation, he will return to the store to work on the eighth day of the first month. The offline view is the "daily" of real estate agents. In previous years, he should have taken more than N houses from the Spring Festival to now.

But the reality is that after the Spring Festival, Zhou Hong has not watched it offline. "This was unimaginable in the past." During the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Beijing community was strictly closed, checking in and checking out identity cards, and checking cards. Zhou Hong knows only a few offline tours in this area because the agent rents in the neighborhood where the buyer and the owner live. After obtaining the owner's consent, the neighborhood cannot be seen. And this kind of housing exchange within the community is really an example.

At the same time that offline watching has basically stopped, Zhou Hong's online work has not stopped for a day. Since the beginning of March, the transaction has gradually recovered. As the maintainer of the listing, he gave feedback to the owner every 30 minutes, such as "a certain neighborhood in this area has sold a large three-bedroom apartment, and we are actively recommending your house." and many more. At the same time recommend potential listings to potential home buyers, online VR show.

Zhou Hong doesn't know when the situation of "can't enter the community" will continue. Regarding the new regulations issued by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Committee on March 15, "one salesperson can enter and watch" in each district, Zhou Hong said that his store has not received specific information and does not know how to proceed. "Now it's mainly VR online viewing, which basically can't be seen offline. But if you don't see the real site, who dares to buy?"

"If it is said that new house sales can also be achieved in advance through online marketing and innovative methods, but the transaction of second-hand housing is really unable to get rid of offline viewing and selection." Guo Yi, chief analyst at Heshuo, said that second-hand housing Age, interior decoration, and public facilities need to be viewed offline to be able to understand on the ground. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the community was closed, resulting in a rapid decline in second-hand housing transactions in Beijing in February. "At present, March will also maintain a significant year-on-year decline."

Regarding the new rules of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission, Guo Yi believes that the role of driving transactions is limited. She said that the new regulations on viewing restricted the number of people in a single community and the frequency of client inspections. From the perspective of the client's house viewing cycle, it is possible for the intermediary to look at five to eight units to achieve a set of transactions. In fact, transactions usually need to go through a long period of viewing and housing selection process. Once the number of intermediary viewings is limited, the number of viewings and customers in a day is limited. Even if it can drive the conversion of previous customers, the conversion ratio will be very low.

"In March, although the house-seeking crowd is picking up, if there is no offline viewing link, real transactions cannot be achieved." Guo Yi believes that although demand is heating up, it will take a long time to translate into actual transaction and contract data. Cycle. The lack of offline viewing links will extend the cycle indefinitely. "The transaction in March is definitely still frozen. When will the closedness of the community significantly improve? Is it possible to promote the increase in transaction volume?"

The market shows signs of recovery, the industry said "total recovery is too early"

Even so, under the shadow of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the second-hand housing market still has sales orders, because good houses with scarce value are never worried about selling, and there are always people in a hurry to use the house. Houses in the core areas of Beijing are "things that are scarce and expensive" at any time.

In addition to listing at intermediaries, Beijing Girl Xiaogong has also started selling houses on Weibo since December last year. This house is located at Xinjiekou, next to Xinjiekou Station of Metro Line 4 and Jishuitan Station of Line 2. Next to it is Jishuitan Hospital and Xicheng School District House. Since the house is not anxious to sell, Xiao Gong wants to compare it with the agent. Whoever sells the house successfully first.

After the Weibo was sent out, three people came and made an appointment with her to see the house after a year. Unexpectedly, the new crown pneumonia epidemic struck, no one dared to go out, and no one dared to let strangers come.

What I didn't expect was that one day in March, the agent called Komiya and said that there were high-quality customers who wanted to buy without having to look at the house, and they wanted to rush to sign the contract. Because the price was quite satisfactory, it was only a little lower than the listed price, and the two parties quickly concluded the transaction.

Xiao Gong told the Beijing News reporter, "The buyer has come to see the house a long time ago and loves my house. This time I don't know why the other party was so anxious to take the money. The time interval is too long, I have already I can't remember the appearance of this buyer. "

Intermediaries are the most sensitive to the market. Compared to the "frozen" in February, Zhou Hong felt that as the spring blossomed in March, the "frozen" slightly "cracked" a bit. In February, only one apartment was sold in his area. From March to now, eight have been sold. "Basically it is to change houses in this area, mainly for improvement. For example, the two small houses are changed to the three big houses in the neighbourhood. Several sets of transactions are for children to go to school."

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Central Plains Real Estate, said that with the apparent improvement in the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, some home buyers have indeed entered the market, including those who have just demanded for housing improvement during the epidemic. Compared with the severe epidemic in February, recent transactions have increased significantly.

Central Plains Real Estate data shows that in the first half of March, second-hand housing transactions in major cities across the country showed a significant recovery compared to February. The number of online signings rose by an average of 40%, but still fell by more than 20% year-on-year. Especially in the first-tier cities, online visas have been reduced by 25% year-on-year.

"The current market is far from warming up, at most it is just a recovery. On the whole, the average visits and market turnover of the national property market are less than half compared with the same period in March last year. The market is still gradually recovering, and southern cities are compared with northern cities. The recovery was earlier and the decline was lower than in northern cities. "Zhang Dawei said.

Guo Yi believes that when the epidemic situation is alleviated in the future and the community is no longer isolated, the second-hand housing market will certainly usher in a wave of rebound transactions. "The second-hand housing market itself has just-in-demand crowds, and those who buy new homes also need to sell old and buy new ones, both of which will cause the second-hand housing market to rebound in transaction volume. However, this node is still judged by the overall relief of the epidemic situation. At present, The second-hand housing market has not fully recovered. "

According to Zhang Dawei, whether the second-hand housing market can pick up depends not only on the relief of the epidemic but also on related policies. There is no obvious adjustment in the current policy. Under such circumstances, it is difficult for the market to fully recover. Regarding the trend of housing prices after the epidemic, Zhang Dawei believes that the possibility of house price reduction is higher than the possibility of house price rise.

Beijing News reporter Wang Hailiang