(Countering New Crown Pneumonia) Economic War "Epilepsy" Record: What Will the Impact of International Oil Price Fall Below $ 30 Have on the Chinese Economy?
China News Agency, Beijing, March 18 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) The pace of decline in international oil prices still seems to have stopped, and the "30 US dollars", which is regarded as an important mark, has also fallen behind, causing widespread market attention.
On Tuesday, international oil prices fell sharply. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in April closed at US $ 26.95 per barrel, a decrease of 6.1%. London Brent crude for May delivery closed at $ 28.73 per barrel, a decline of 4.39%.
Recently, international oil prices have continued to fall. After experiencing the largest single-day drop in history on March 9, although the trading day has rebounded since then, the overall trend has shown a downward trend. Last week, international oil prices fell by about 20% in a single week, the largest weekly decline since the 2008 financial crisis.
In response, Bank of China International analyst Qian Siyun said that the recent decline in international oil prices largely depends on the positions and actions of major oil producers. The sharp drop in oil prices on the 9th was mainly due to the failure of negotiations between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC oil-produced countries led by Russia, and Russia's refusal to further reduce production, which led to Saudi Arabia's retaliatory expansion of oil production and price reductions. . The situation between Saudi Arabia and Russia has not eased since then.
In the opinion of Huatai analyst Zhang Jiqiang, the main cause of the failure of Saudi Arabia and Russia to reduce production is the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Under the impact of the epidemic, global economic growth is expected to weaken, and crude oil demand is under pressure. In recent years, the share of Saudi Arabia and Russia in the international crude oil market has continued to decline, and the United States has become the world's largest oil producer with shale oil.
Zhang Jiqiang further pointed out that Russia has been sanctioned by the United States in recent years for the "Beijing-2" natural gas pipeline project, and hopes to lower the oil price to trigger a crisis in the US shale oil company that has higher production costs, poor financing and cash flow conditions.
According to a research report from China Merchants Securities, the cost of US shale oil is higher than that of Russian oil. Russia has a better resource endowment, and its oil production costs are expected to not exceed $ 20 per barrel. US $ 30 per barrel is the production cost line of US shale oil, that is, the cost line that completely stops the exploration and development activities for future production and only maintains the current production level. Therefore, many analysts believe that the oil price of $ 30 level has strong support.
Liu Qian, deputy director of the China Central Asia Research Center at China University of Petroleum (Beijing), believes that Russia clearly wants to squeeze US shale oil out of the market by driving down oil prices. Rosneft's output accounts for more than half of Russia's total output, and the company has always opposed production cuts, arguing that it is Russia's self-limitation, which at the same time raised oil prices while giving up market share to US shale gas. Russia also wants to shake up the US shale oil business model linked to the financial system.
So, for a big oil consumer like China, is the plunge in oil prices a big deal?
Guo Changjun, global chief economist at Guotai Junan Research Institute, said that a sharp drop in oil prices would be conducive to saving costs and providing policy space for the Chinese economy. China is a net oil importer, and falling oil prices will reduce Chinese spending and increase the current account surplus. In addition, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, reducing transportation costs and helping to control price levels.
But Hua Changchun reminded that the plunge in oil prices is not conducive to the stability of China's financial market. The slump in oil prices will hit the fiscal revenues of oil exporting countries and may cause the return of petrol dollars, which will put pressure on global liquidity and capital markets and affect China's financial markets.
Galaxy Securities analyst Xu Dongshi took a more conservative view. Xu Dongshi believes that ultra-low crude oil prices, especially the rapidly falling crude oil prices, not only bring many risks to the financial market but also to the world economy. If oil prices continue to slump, the global economy will be at risk of deflation, and it will be difficult for the Chinese economy to survive on its own. (Finish)