Chinanews Client Beijing, March 17th (Zhang Xu) At 24:00 on the 17th, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment windows will open. With the "serial killing" of international oil prices, the agency predicts that the domestic retail price of refined oil products may be lowered by about 900 yuan / ton, the largest decline since the introduction of the new pricing mechanism in 2013.

Taiyuan, Shanxi, gas station staff is refueling vehicles. Photo by Zhang Yun

During the pricing cycle, OPEC and Russia negotiated a "black swan" incident on a production reduction agreement. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries increased production to varying degrees, which caused crude oil prices to fall sharply.

In addition, the global new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, curbing demand for crude oil, and under multiple negative conditions, crude oil prices continue to bottom out. The United States WTI and Brent crude oil futures have fallen below the "floor price" of $ 40 / barrel. Late on the 16th, Beijing time Brent crude fell below $ 30 / barrel for the first time since February 11, 2016. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate continues to deepen within a negative value.

According to Jinlianchuang ’s calculation, as of the ninth working day of March 16, Beijing time, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was $ 40.49 / barrel, with a rate of change of -24.64%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel should be lowered by 930 yuan / ton. The price adjustment window At 24:00 on March 17.

The so-called “floor price” is the “red line” set by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2016 for the pricing of refined oil products under extreme circumstances. When the international market oil price is less than 40 US dollars, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel does not decrease. All unadjusted amounts are included in the risk reserve, which is mainly used to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, improve oil quality, and ensure the safety of oil supply.

After the above mechanism came into effect, from late January to mid-April 2016, domestic refined oil price adjustments suffered six consecutive stops due to “floor prices”. During the corresponding period, the prices of US WTI and Brent crude oil futures were below $ 40 / barrel.

Zhuochuang Information said that there is only one working day left from the price adjustment window. In terms of the current crude oil price level, Zhuochuang's estimated average level of crude oil is still above the floor price of $ 40 / barrel, which is in line with the conditions for domestic refined oil pricing mechanism price adjustment. Therefore, at 24:00 on March 17th, the domestic retail price of refined oil products may be reduced as scheduled, and it will be the largest decline since the introduction of the new pricing mechanism in 2013.

Jinlianchuang analyst Wang Yanting told reporters that on March 16, the new "Central Pricing Catalog" published by the Development and Reform Commission mentioned that the prices of refined oil products were temporarily adjusted according to the current price formation mechanism, and adjusted in accordance with changes in oil prices in the international market. The process of full liberalization was formed by the market. From this point of view, the current adjustment of the domestic retail price of refined oil products is still proceeding normally in accordance with the current pricing mechanism.

Regarding the oil price trend in the new round of pricing cycle, Wang Yanting believes that as the current international crude oil price is already low, the floor price of 40 US dollars / barrel will open, and the retail price adjustment window for refined oil products will close on March 31, which will be a high probability event.

According to media reports, Deutsche Bank strategist Michael Hsueh said that given that the 2020 oil crisis is more severe than the global financial crisis in 2008, Deutsche Bank lowered its Brent crude oil futures price expectations in the second and third quarters to $ 25 / barrel. The bank had previously estimated Brent in the second and third quarters at $ 53 per barrel. (Finish)