(Countering new crown pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: the epidemic hit the aviation industry, can the airline company survive?
China News Agency, Beijing, March 16th: The "epidemic" record of China's economic war: the epidemic has hit the aviation industry, can the airline company handle it?
Author Wang Qingkai
The new crown pneumonia epidemic hit the global air transport industry severely and put some airlines in a difficult position. It is estimated that if the epidemic lasts until May, China's shipping industry alone will lose 100 billion yuan.
Can the airline carry it?
Tens of billions of tickets to be refunded
"Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, a large number of air ticket refund orders are pending and there is a lot of backlog." The staff of China Travel Ticket Sales Platform "Flying Pig" told reporters from China News Agency that processing refunds has become one of their most important businesses.
Relevant staff of Tianjin Airlines also told the China News Agency that there are currently a large number of refunds waiting to be processed. When can the passenger fees be refunded, they do not have an exact date.
In order to complete the joint epidemic prevention work, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has adjusted the free refund measures three times, requiring civil aviation passengers who have purchased tickets before 08:00 on January 28, 2020, and whose boarding date is after this time limit, as proposed before flight departure For refund applications, all airlines and their ticket sales agents shall process free refunds for passengers within the validity period of the tickets, and shall not charge any fees.
A senior civil aviation expert told reporters that the current epidemic situation is very unfavorable to airline operations, and refunds have appeared as a "run." At the same time that the wave of refunds broke out, complaints caused by refunds also surged.
Xiong Jie, a spokesman for the Civil Aviation Administration of China, said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic had a huge impact on China's civil aviation transportation production.
According to data from the China Air Transport Association, as of March 2, domestic and foreign airlines had processed a total of 24.545 million tickets with a total face value of 27.1 billion yuan (RMB, the same below). During the epidemic, domestic airlines have waived refund fees of several billion yuan.
Double cost and revenue
According to the data of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in February this year, the total turnover of China's civil aviation industry decreased by 73.9% year-on-year; the flight time of civil aviation industry decreased by 70.5% year-on-year; passenger transportation volume decreased by 84.5% year-on-year.
Currently domestic airlines have cancelled tens of thousands of flights. Stopping the flow of air passengers means that airline funds also stop flowing. "The plane lays flat and loses money."
A senior civil aviation expert told a reporter from China News Agency that current civil aviation companies, especially airline companies such as "Air China", "China Southern Airlines" and "China Eastern Airlines", must support epidemic-resistant transportation during the epidemic. Loss operating status.
Under the double attack of "declining revenue" and "increasing costs", can Chinese airlines still carry it?
Hainan Airlines first went wrong. In the afternoon of February 29, HNA called mitigation of risks, and the Hainan Provincial Government took the lead and sent professionals from related departments to jointly set up the "Hainan HNA Group Joint Working Group". The joint working group will fully assist and advance HNA's risk management work.
Industry insiders said that the tight liquidity may not be limited to HNA.
Qiu Lianzhong, a visiting professor at the China Civil Aviation Management Institute, conservatively estimates that China ’s civil aviation revenue in February reached nearly 37 billion yuan. The industry is expected to lose around 35 billion yuan in revenue in March. If the epidemic extends to April to May, the total lost revenue of China's aviation industry may be close to 100 billion yuan.
A few days ago, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has issued the "Notice on Supporting Policies to Actively Cope with the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic", proposing to implement a proactive financial policy, actively promote fee reduction and burden reduction, increase infrastructure investment, promote air transport development, and optimize government services. Sixteen policies and measures in five aspects including work.
"Under the haze of the epidemic, you should still have confidence. As the epidemic recedes, civil aviation may usher in blowout passengers." The expert told reporters.
Data from the Qunar network on the travel ticketing platform showed that the return passenger flow during the "Spring Festival" this year was stable without excessive concentration. As of February 13, although the number of flights on the Qunarnet platform decreased, the search volume did not decrease. It shows that passengers' expectations for travel are still rising, and it is estimated that at least 8 million civil aviation return trips are waiting for release.
As far as foreign airlines are concerned, the difficulties may have just arrived.
Affected by the global epidemic, Lufthansa Group said recently that the airline has reduced its flight capacity, which is equivalent to grounding one-fifth of its flights.
Jefferies' report states that the epidemic will be the biggest shock to the global aviation industry in history, and it is expected that global air passenger traffic will decline by 8.9% this year.
Relevant persons of the European Aviation Division bluntly stated that in terms of economic losses, the worst moment in the global aviation industry is still behind. (Finish)