China News Service Client, Beijing, March 10th (Reporter Li Jinlei) In February, the CPI rose by 5.2% year-on-year. The CPI growth rate was in the "5th era" for two consecutive months, but the growth rate dropped somewhat, among which food prices rose more, year-on-year. The increase was over 20%.

CPI chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI is still at a high level, but the increase has declined

In February, the sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia had a more complex impact on price trends. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th showed that the CPI in February rose by 5.2% year-on-year.

This means that the CPI increase was in the "5 era" for two consecutive months, but compared with the 5.4% increase in January, the CPI increase in February fell by 0.2 percentage points.

According to estimates, in the 5.2% year-on-year increase in February, the impact of price changes last year was about 2.9 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases this year was about 2.3 percentage points. The impact of the new price increase is relatively high, reaching more than 40%.

On average from January to February, the CPI increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, and the increase rate increased by 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

On March 5, in a supermarket in Hefei, college student volunteer Wang Shujia purchased vegetables for the elderly in the area. Photo by reporter Han Suyuan of China News Agency

Food purchases and other factors have helped to increase food prices

Data show that food prices have risen more. In February, food prices rose 21.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, which affected the CPI rise of about 4.45 percentage points.

In food, the price of fresh food continues to be high. Potato prices rose 16.0% month-on-month, an increase of 8.3 percentage points; pork prices rose 9.3% month-on-month, or 0.8 percentage points; the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, and aquatic products rose 9.5%, 4.8%, and 3.0%, respectively. 5.8, 0.7 and 1.5 percentage points.

Regarding the main reason for the increase in food prices, Zhao Maohong, director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of supply, it was mainly due to the implementation of transport control measures to varying degrees in various places, and poor logistics in some areas; manpower shortages caused supplies Distribution has become more difficult and costs have risen; some companies and markets have postponed construction and market opening, affecting the production and supply of some products, making it difficult to meet market needs in a timely manner.

From the perspective of demand, affected by factors such as "home" requirements and "risk-avoidance" psychology, some residents are hoarding, and some areas have snapped up instant noodles, meat products and quick-frozen foods, and even spread to other foods. To boost prices.

On March 7th, a large supermarket in Tianshan District, Urumqi, Xinjiang, where citizens buy fruits. China News Agency reporter Liu Xinshe

What is the price trend in the future?

The "China's Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2019" issued by the central bank on February 19 pointed out that the price situation is generally controllable, inflation expectations are basically stable, and future changes need to be continuously observed.

This report pointed out that in the short term, factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic may cause price disturbances, and close monitoring and analysis should continue. However, from a fundamental point of view, China's economic operation is generally stable, total supply and demand are basically balanced, and there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation.

Professor Heping Cao, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told reporters from Chinanews.com that under the disturbance of the epidemic and other factors, the CPI growth rate is expected to maintain a high level in the first quarter, but with the improvement of the epidemic situation, a series of resumption of work, production and price stabilization With the implementation of policies and measures, the price operation will stabilize.

"The inflection point of the price index under the epidemic situation is postponed, but the trend remains the same." Dongxing Securities expects that production and consumption activities will basically return to normal in May, pork production capacity will resume, vegetable and fruit price disturbances will disappear, and CPI will enter a downward channel.

According to the monitoring of the "National Agricultural Product Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from February 28 to March 5, the prices of most agricultural products fell month-on-month. Among them, the average price of pork dropped by 1.3% from last week; the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in 286 wholesale markets across the country dropped by 4.9%; the average price of 5 kinds of fruits monitored by key fell by 0.5%. (Finish)