(Countering new crown pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: epidemic disturbed Chinese price experts expect CPI growth to gradually decline
China News Service, Beijing, March 10 (Reporter Wang Enbo): In January, 5.4% and in February 5.2%, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose year-on-year for two consecutive months in the "5th era." Since last year, it has continued to be affected by the price of pork, and now it has been affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Whether the prices that are closely related to people's livelihood are stable is of great concern.
"In February, the sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia had a more complicated impact on price trends," which is the official judgment of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The complexity lies in the fact that the epidemic situation has inconsistent impacts on various CPI sub-items, and prices have shown a structural change trend of rising and falling.
Specifically, food is still the main factor driving the rise in CPI. In February, food prices rose 21.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, which affected the CPI rise of about 4.45 percentage points. On average from January to February, food prices rose 21.3% year-on-year, an increase of 20 percentage points over the same period last year.
Talking about the reasons for the increase in food prices, Zhao Maohong, director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of supply, it was mainly due to the implementation of transportation control measures at different levels in various places, and logistics in some areas were not smooth; the shortage of manpower caused the difficulty of material distribution. Increased, costs have risen; some enterprises and markets have postponed construction and market opening, and the production and supply of some products have been affected, making it difficult to meet market needs in a timely manner.
From the perspective of demand, affected by factors such as "home" requirements and "risk-avoidance" psychology, some residents are hoarding, and some areas have snapped up instant noodles, meat products and quick-frozen foods, and even spread to other foods. To boost prices.
Outside of food, prices of non-necessities are basically stable.
Due to the epidemic prevention and control, some commercial and service outlets ceased to operate, the consumption demand for some non-necessities was suppressed, the supply and demand contracted, and the prices of some projects even fell. For example, due to the impact of traffic regulations, transportation and communications prices fell 1.6% year-on-year; the launch of spring clothing was delayed, and apparel prices fell 0.3% month-on-month.
Although the epidemic has had a complex impact on prices, many analysts believe that the impact is one-off and that the CPI increase will gradually decline in the future.
On the one hand, as the main factor affecting current prices, pork supply has improved.
In the second half of last year, pork prices tended to fall after reaching a high point. However, due to the seasonal increase in pig prices during the Spring Festival, coupled with the epidemic situation, which has limited transportation and delayed production and resumption of production, the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and pork prices have continued to run at a high level recently. In February, pork prices rose by 135.2% year-on-year, which affected the CPI by about 3.19 percentage points.
But in the long run, some positive factors are emerging. Against the backdrop of strict implementation of African swine fever prevention and control measures in various places, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently stated that all epidemic areas in China had been lifted and no new African swine fever epidemic report was received in January. Under the "assist" of a series of policies to stabilize production and supply by various ministries and commissions, the sow breeding stocks in January increased by 1.2% month-on-month, and increased for four consecutive months.
According to the report issued by Tianfeng Securities, from the perspective of the inventory's leading position on pork prices, pork prices are expected to continue to run high due to tight supply in the short term, and it is expected to decline in the second half of the year as supply improves.
On the other hand, with the positive progress made in the prevention and control of the epidemic, the resumption of work and production and the orderly restoration of residents' lives, the improvement of supply and demand has made it impossible for prices to increase significantly.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that in the next stage, the resumption of work and production will gradually resume. Production and supply, logistics, and human resources will all ease. The demand for stockpiling will fall, and the supply and demand will gradually balance. The CPI will gradually come down. As inflation falls, the space for monetary policy will also open.
Zhu Jianfang, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, also said that the March supply and demand pattern has initially improved, and the CPI will continue to decline slightly. He pointed out that before the outbreak of the epidemic, the market expects a strong downward trend in the CPI this year, but the impact of the epidemic on the rise in food prices is more obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the downward trend of the CPI will slow down in the first half of the year and will accelerate in the second half of the year. (Finish)