Chinanews client Beijing, March 10th (Xie Yiguan) The National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th will announce the February National Consumer Price Index (CPI). The market generally predicts that the CPI increase in February may have contracted slightly, returning to "4 era".

CPI year-on-year, month-on-month increase chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics

February CPI year-on-year increase may shrink

Under the rise in prices of pork and other products, the National Bureau of Statistics previously released data showing that the CPI in January rose 5.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.

According to Wind statistics, the average forecast value of 16 research institutes for February ’s CPI year-on-year increase is 4.8%. Among them, the predicted maximum value is 5.4% and the minimum value is 3.1%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the CPI increase in February will be reduced by 0.6 percentage point from January, and it will return to the "4th era".

Among them, most brokerage firms predict that the year-on-year increase in CPI in February will be smaller than last month.

Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, pointed out that winter is a low season for the production of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products. Adding to the impact of transportation regulations, the price of food products rose in February from the previous month, but the wholesale price of pork fell after mid-February; The tail-lifting factor dropped to 2.93%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month, which weakened the year-on-year increase in CPI.

Liu Xuezhi said that under the impact of the epidemic, the demand weakened and the tailslide factors dropped. It is expected that the CPI growth rate in February will fall significantly year-on-year, which may be between 4.5-4.8%, with a median value of 4.7%.

There are also opinions that the year-on-year increase in CPI in February or the same as last month. For example, Industrial Securities believes that pork prices in February are higher than January, some food prices are high in some areas, and the price of medical care may be stronger. Taking into account factors such as the Spring Festival and residential prices, it may lead to a year-on-year increase in CPI in the previous month. Near the high point.

Data Map: The public chooses fresh vegetables. Photo by Sun Rui

What is the future trend of the CPI increase under the epidemic?

According to the monitoring of the "National Agricultural Product Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from February 28 to March 5, the prices of most agricultural products fell month-on-month. Among them, the average price of pork dropped by 1.3% from last week; the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in 286 wholesale markets across the country dropped by 4.9%; the average price of 5 kinds of fruits monitored by key fell by 0.5%.

"Under the disturbance of the epidemic and other factors, the CPI increase in the first quarter is expected to be the same as in February, or about 4.6%." Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told reporters.

"The inflection point of the price index is postponed under the epidemic situation, but the trend remains the same." Dongxing Securities expects that production and consumption activities will return to normal in May, pork production capacity will recover, vegetable and fruit price disturbances will disappear, and CPI will quickly enter a downward channel. Within 3%.

Tianfeng Securities also believes that the epidemic is a one-time shock and will not change the CPI trend. The overall CPI is expected to continue to decline in 2020, and it will basically remain at a high level of more than 4.0% in the first half of the year, and will fall rapidly in the second half of the year. (Finish)