China News Client Beijing March 5th (Zhang Xu) What can 5 yuan do? You can take a subway or a bus, but you can't get the starting price of a taxi in Beijing. However, recently where there is a 5 yuan ticket from Shenzhen to Chengdu on the Internet.
Although it turned out to be a system failure afterwards, tickets sold for only tens of yuan in many parts of the country show that the civil aviation industry is struggling in the epidemic. Some experts predict that if the epidemic continues into April and May, the total loss of the civil aviation industry may reach 100 billion yuan.
Air tickets sold "cabbage price"
Earlier, a 5 yuan ticket from Shenzhen to Chengdu appeared on Qunar.com. In response, Qunar.com responded that the system had been repaired due to incorrect quotes due to system failure, and the problem had been resolved.
Although the 5 yuan ticket is a system failure, as airlines resume flights one after another, it is not uncommon to sell "cabbage" tickets for tens of yuan.
The data comes from Meituan.
Take Shenzhen to Chengdu as an example. From March 5th to 27th, the lowest fares are within 100 yuan. Among them, Spring Airlines' 0.2% off economy class fare is only 60 yuan.
Even with the usual Beijing-Shanghai routes, the fares in March were at historical lows. From March 4th to March 7th, the lowest price for a one-way ticket from Beijing to Shanghai is a discounted price of economy class, which is 270 yuan; from March 13th to March 28th, the lowest fare for this route is only 300 yuan.
Tickets for popular tourist routes also keep prices low. For example, from March 5th to March 28th, the lowest fare from Beijing to Sanya is 0.9% off Hebei Airlines Economy Class, and the price is 300 yuan. At the same time, some international routes have also dropped to freezing points.
The cheapest flight from Beijing to Sanya is 300 yuan. Data from Flying Pig
Ctrip said that among the people who have recently traveled, most of them return to work and return to work, followed by those with hard business travel needs. "From February 28th to March 1st, the total number of user trips increased significantly compared to the three days from February 25th to 27th. The top five regions recently expected to move into are Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing, and Jiangsu. . "
Price reduction is helpless
According to statistics from Feiyou Technology, the current cancellation rate of airlines is high, resulting in low aircraft utilization. In order to ensure non-stop flights and increase the load factor, airlines are willing to introduce some ultra-low discount prices to attract passengers.
For example, on February 29, a total of 8531 flights were cancelled and 4,667 flights were performed, a decrease of 3.48% from the previous day. The aircraft utilization rate was 2.73 hours / day, which was a decrease of 3.87% from the previous day. 1.4 hours, narrow body machine 2.93 hours; the domestic airline passenger load factor has remained at about 60% in the past week.
Regarding the "cabbage price" ticket, Spring Airlines said: "One is because it supports resumption of work; the other is because the airline has just resumed and the market law has caused it."
Ultra-low fares are a loss for airlines. "From the perspective of cost recovery, air tickets that cost around 100 yuan or even tens of yuan are basically loss-making." Civil aviation expert Lin Zhijie said.
However, as China is still in a special period of epidemic prevention and control, and the overall number of travelers is small, in order to capture the limited passenger flow and improve their cash flow, it is also a last resort to use low-cost tickets to guide passengers to choose civil aviation.
Data source: Feiyou Technology.
The difference in passenger flow between departures and departures is also the reason for the emergence of ultra-low-price tickets. According to Frequently published passenger load factors of departures and inbound flights from 50 major cities in China, the passenger load factors of those entering labor-intensive cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou are high, and the passenger load factors of these cities are not high, so Only then will the "cabbage" tickets from these cities appear.
Civil aviation industry losses may reach 100 billion yuan
Air tickets of hundreds of dollars in the past and tens of dollars in the past reflect the plight of the civil aviation industry in the epidemic.
"In February, the estimated industry revenue loss reached nearly 37 billion. In March, the international and regional markets are expected to linger in the trough. The mainland market may improve slightly. The industry ’s expected revenue loss in March will be about 35 billion." Qiu Lianzhong, a visiting professor at the Cadre Institute, said.
Qiu Lianzhong made analysis using Feiyou technology data. He estimated that if the epidemic situation extends to April and May, the total revenue loss of the industry may be close to 100 billion yuan.
The CARDI index (a real-time dynamic index of the impact of the Xinguan epidemic on airline operations) shows that the civil aviation market in mainland China is also continuously recovering, but the international and regional markets are still at a trough.
Data source: Feiyou Technology.
IATA predicts that the epidemic will affect the passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region by 13 percentage points. Previously, it was predicted that passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region would increase by 4.8% in 2020, which is now a decrease of 8.2%, and global passenger demand will also decrease by 4.7%. . This is also the first overall decline in global market demand since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
However, with the resumption of work and resumption of production, the seat occupancy and prices of airlines have shown signs of recovery. Ctrip analysis said that from the observation of the number of flights on the market for a period of time in the future, as the epidemic situation gradually improves, domestic civil aviation and even the entire travel market may show a "U" shape change.
According to the survey report of Flying Pig's "Confidence in Travel Consumption after the Epidemic", 32% of users said that they would not go to travel as soon as the epidemic ended, but 19% of users chose to travel according to the original plan, and 8% of users said they would increase more travel plan. As for the time of the first trip after the epidemic, 56% of users chose to stay within 3 months after the epidemic.
Two departments: rewards for non-stop and resumption of international flights
In order to help the civil aviation industry out of the predicament and ease the operating pressure, the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement in early February exempting the civil aviation development fund that airlines should pay.
Spring and Autumn Airlines flight attendants issued health registration forms to 115 residents of poor households in the three counties of Lijiang, Yunnan. Photo by Yin Liqin
In addition, direct incentive measures have been introduced. On March 4, the Ministry of Finance and the Civil Aviation Administration issued a notice to reward non-stop and re-routed international flights during the epidemic, and to tilt to solo flights.
The award is divided into two levels: 0.0176 yuan per seat kilometer for a total flight and 0.0528 yuan per seat kilometer for a solo flight. The amount of awards will be determined in accordance with the actual flight availability of airlines during the epidemic prevention and control period and the standards specified in this notice. Routes involving domestic and overseas waypoints or the fifth service right are calculated based on the number of international flight segments involving our waypoints. In the case of a solo flight segment, if a second carrier sails (or resumes flight), it will be approved according to the standard of co-flight flights.
"Short-term subsidies can only solve the urgent needs, airlines still need to save themselves, rational resumption of flights, accurate planning, and save cash flow." Qiu Lianzhong suggested that the industry still urgently need a series of support policies in time to formulate transitional industrial policies for the civil aviation industry. Supplement airlines' liquidity, strengthen policy hedging, and help airlines weather difficult times. (Finish)