Housing season: due to which the average size of mortgages in Russia reached a historic maximum

In January 2020, the average mortgage loan in Russia amounted to 2.64 million rubles. Over the past year, the value increased by almost 11% and reached a maximum mark for the entire time of observation. This is evidenced by the results of the study of Equifax credit bureau.

As RT told the agency, the highest mortgages were recorded in Moscow and the Moscow Region (an average of 4.96 million and 3.58 million rubles, respectively), in Dagestan (3.83 million) and Kalmykia (3.52 million). At the same time, the lowest values ​​were noted in the Jewish Autonomous Region (1.33 million), Altai (1.46 million) and the Kirov Region (1.56 million).

An increase in the average loan amount was affected by changes in the credit policy of some banks. So, lenders began to reduce the requirements for the size of the down payment.

“If a few years ago, the most common down payment on the market was 20%, in 2019-2020, many financial institutions launched mortgage lending programs with a contribution of 5-10%. Accordingly, the funds that would have been previously paid as an initial contribution are now included in the amount of the mortgage loan, ”says Oleg Lagutkin, CEO of Equifax.

Meanwhile, RT analysts interviewed by key analysts consider the emerging growth in demand for mortgages in Russia to be a key factor in increasing the average loan amount. According to the calculations of the Central Bank, in 2019 the amount of mortgage loans issued in the country amounted to 2.5 trillion rubles. According to DOM.RF experts, in 2020 the figure could grow to 3.5 trillion rubles and become the highest since 2006.

According to RT Vice President of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate Irina Radchenko, the demand for housing loans is associated with a record decrease in mortgage rates in Russia. In January, the national average updated the historic low and dropped to 8.84% per annum for the first time. This is evidenced by the materials of the Central Bank.

According to Radchenko, the reduction in mortgage rates was stimulated by the policy of the Bank of Russia. In 2019, the Central Bank lowered its key rate five times - from 7.75% to 6.25%. At the same time, during the first meeting in 2020, February 7, the regulator again lowered it by 0.25 percentage points to 6% per annum. The value has become the lowest since March 2014.

“Following the decision of the regulator, banks also began to adjust the level of long-term lending rates, including mortgage rates. As a result, a housing loan has become more affordable for most Russians. In 2020, the decrease in mortgage rates may continue, ”Irina Radchenko believes.

Given the current conditions and the absence of shocks in foreign markets, by the end of 2020, mortgage rates in Russia could fall to the level of 8-8.5% per annum. This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the chief analyst of BCS Premier Anton Pokatovich.

Credit age

It is noteworthy that in the face of lower mortgage rates, the loan term has also significantly increased. According to Equifax, in 2019 the national average was the highest in history and amounted to 16.7 years. The longest mortgage repayment times were recorded in Ingushetia (20 years), Dagestan (19.7 years) and Chechnya (18.3 years). The lowest rate was recorded in Khakassia (11.7 years), the Jewish Autonomous Region (12 years) and Tuva (13.6 years).

As noted by Irina Radchenko, it has become more convenient for Russians to lend for a longer period. So, at lower rates, the amount of the monthly payment becomes less burdensome for the family budget.

“At the same time, the average age of the borrower is decreasing: if earlier the Russians mainly took the mortgage at the age of 40-50, now the number of borrowers at the age of 25-30 is actively growing, who, in view of their young age, can get a loan for a longer period,” - explained the expert.

According to her, the average duration of a mortgage loan is increasing due to social programs funded by the state. First of all, we are talking about a mortgage at 6% per annum for young families and at 2% for residents of the Far East. According to DOM.RF, in 2019, 42 thousand families became participants in the program of preferential mortgage lending. The indicator doubled the preliminary forecasts of the organization.

As expected, in 2020, an additional incentive for the mortgage market should be the expansion of the maternity capital program. March 1, the corresponding bill was signed by Vladimir Putin. According to the document, families in which the first child was born or adopted on January 1, 2020 will receive 466 thousand rubles. Moreover, payments for the birth or adoption of a second child will amount to 616 thousand rubles, and the mother capital program itself has been extended until December 31, 2026.

“At the birth of a third child, the state extinguishes 450 thousand rubles of its mortgage loan for a family. In general, a family with three children will be able to invest over 1 million rubles in solving their housing problem with the help of the state, ”Putin said in a message to the Federal Assembly on January 15.

No extra jumps

According to experts, the average amount of a mortgage loan in Russia has increased due to rising real estate prices. According to Irina Radchenko, in 2019 the average price per square meter in the country increased by 8%. In many ways, the rise in price of real estate was caused by the transition to a project financing system for housing construction.

From July 1, 2019, developers can no longer attract money from equity holders directly. Now citizens place their funds for the purchase of housing on the so-called escrow accounts. This is a special bank account for the safe conduct of transactions between companies and the public.

Money for the purchase of real estate is stored in the bank until the developer fully fulfills its obligations. So, for example, a construction company will be able to get the funds of interest holders only after the introduction of housing into operation. The performers themselves will carry out construction work at the expense of bank loans.

“After changes in construction rules in the middle of last year, the costs of developers increased, which ultimately led to an increase in the price per square meter. For this reason, the cost of housing for Russians can grow by 6%, but you should not expect a galloping jump in prices. It is unprofitable for developers to continue to increase the cost per square meter, since in this scenario, sales in the market will cease to grow, ”Radchenko concluded.