Chinanews.com client, Beijing, March 3 (Zhang Xu) Since the beginning of 2020, the epidemic of new crown pneumonia has continued, bringing huge impact to the automotive industry. Some people believe that the epidemic is very similar to SARS in 2003. After the epidemic is over, there will be “revenge consumption” in the auto market. Therefore, they are full of confidence in the auto market in 2020.
Where are the opportunities in the auto market in 2020, will "retaliatory consumption" be staged again?
Data map: In 2019, the scene of the first day of the opening of the Shanghai car. Photo by Zhang Hengwei
Epidemic strikes, car sales fall in January
After two consecutive years of decline in sales, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the downward trend of the auto market has become more obvious.
Passenger car market information joint meeting (referred to as "passenger association") data show that in January 2020, the national passenger car market retail 1.69 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%, which is the 2005 passenger union retail The lowest growth rate since statistics. The retail data in January decreased by 20.8% month-on-month in December 2019, the largest decline over the years.
When the environment is cold, car companies are almost inevitable. Judging from the data released, the January performance of major car companies such as Nissan, Great Wall, BYD, BAIC New Energy, etc. has all declined by more than 10% compared with the same period last year.
The impact of new energy vehicles is particularly significant. According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Unions, the total sales volume of new energy passenger cars in January was 43,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 53.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 69%. Among them, plug-in hybrid sales were 10,000 units, a decrease of 38% year-on-year; wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 35,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 52%.
The retail market for the passenger car market will not be strong in 2020. Pictures from the Federation
BYD, the representative of domestic new energy vehicle companies, sold only 7,133 new energy vehicles in January, a year-on-year drop of 75.12%. BAIC New Energy's January sales were 2006, a 55.54% year-on-year drop. According to statistics, it delivered a total of 1598 vehicles in January, and its sales volume decreased by 11.5% year-on-year.
The impact on the auto market will exceed SARS, and annual sales are not optimistic?
The China Automobile Industry Association (CAIC) predicts that the decline in automobile production and sales in February will be more significant than in January.
At present, some people believe that automobile consumption will not only rise after the epidemic, but even reproduce the "retaliatory growth" of automobile consumption after the end of the 2003 SARS epidemic.
"If the epidemic situation can be completely controlled by the end of April, car sales will usher in a small peak in accordance with the usual practice of the May 1 Golden Week," said Zhang Xiang, an automotive expert at the Talent Exchange Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. .
Zhang Xiang believes that there are three reasons: first, China's rapid economic development in 2003, low car ownership, and basically insufficient supply of auto consumption, and the situation of the auto industry in the past two years is overcapacity; second, people now have more diversified modes of travel and do not necessarily rely on them Private cars; Third, people's consumption tends to be rational and not so impulse to buy.
The picture shows that SAIC-Iveco Hongyan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. has gradually resumed production and production. Xie Lishe
Data show that by the end of 2002, there were less than 20 vehicles per thousand people in China. Although SARS was encountered in 2003, China's auto sales were 4,390,800 units, an increase of 34.21% year-on-year. After more than ten years of growth, China's auto sales in 2017 increased by only 3%, and the two consecutive years of negative growth in 2018 and 2019, with declines of 2.8% and 8.2%, respectively.
"The industry's previous estimate was that sales will decrease by about 2% this year. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the scope will expand. I think it will be about 7% -10%." Zhang Xiang said.
According to the China Automobile Association, the epidemic has a huge impact on the operation of the automotive industry in the first quarter, and automobile production and sales will decline significantly. After the epidemic is over, with the resumption of work of some car companies across the board, a wave of consumption peaks will be ushered in, but the development of the automotive industry throughout the year is still not optimistic.
Damaged industrial chain, prompting the introduction of automobile consumption policies
Auto industry analyst Zhong Shi said that OEMs have tier one, tier two, and tier three suppliers. As long as there is a problem in one link, it will affect the production rhythm of the entire vehicle. The provinces with severe epidemics, such as Hubei, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, have many parts and components supporting companies, which has caused a certain degree of impact on the entire industry chain of the automotive industry.
"From the perspective of anti-risk, Chinese auto parts companies are more vulnerable than auto companies, especially some small and medium-sized traditional parts companies may be affected a lot." Deputy Director, Institute of Market Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council Researcher Wang Qing said.
In addition to the obstruction of the industrial chain, the epidemic has also led to delays in the start of business. The China Automobile Association's survey of more than 300 complete vehicle and component companies shows that delayed resumption of work has led to an average 7 to 11 days less construction than in previous years.
On February 10, Tesla's super factory in Shanghai officially resumed production and became one of the earliest batch of automobile companies in China to resume work. (Aerial photo) Photo by Zhang Xinwei of China News Agency
In order to reduce losses, many auto companies have responded actively. They have established policies such as online live car sales, no monthly sales targets, and enhanced car purchase incentives for dealers. They have also resumed some production lines at the production end in advance, but sales data The magnitude of the decline is still very significant.
The China Automobile Dealers Association survey shows that there are a total of 4,950 4S stores in 82 auto dealer groups across the country. As of 16:00 on February 25, the employee return rate was 48.9%, the sales efficiency was 15.3%, the after-sales efficiency was 18.5%, and the comprehensive return efficiency was only 23.28 %.
"In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption, policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption will be studied with relevant departments." On February 20, Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operations of the Ministry of Commerce, said at the press conference that at the same time, localities are encouraged Measures based on local conditions were introduced to promote new energy vehicle consumption and increase traditional car purchase restrictions.
Foshan took the lead in becoming the first city to introduce an incentive policy for automobile consumption in 2020. On February 17, the city of Foshan issued a related notice that the owners of Foshan license plates purchased new cars on the basis of old car sales invoices or auto scrap cancellation certificates, giving a subsidy of 3,000 yuan each; consumers buying new cars gave 2,000 yuan each. The policy was formally implemented from March 1.
Foshan has introduced measures to encourage automobile consumption.
Subsequently, Guangdong issued "Several Policies and Measures to Further Stabilize and Promote Employment in Guangdong Province", which promoted conditional cities to introduce subsidy policies for scrapped and retired old cars, and encouraged Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax car numbers and bidding quotas.
Automobile industry associations are also pushing for more measures to boost car consumption. In order to ease the pressure of auto manufacturers and further release the demand for terminal car purchases, the China Automobile Association said that it submitted to the relevant departments a proposal to postpone the implementation of the National Sixth Emission Standard nationwide.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Federation of Vehicle Industry Associations, said that various measures can be taken to promote automobile consumption, including halving the purchase tax, going to the countryside with electric vehicles, and increasing the number of cities in which purchase is restricted.
He believes that “Although the epidemic has impacted the current car market, China ’s private car consumption base is low, driving the enthusiasm of first-time buyers for car purchases, and driving the trend of low and high car sales in 2020. Have a chance. "(End)