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The price of housing will continue to rise in our country, but it will do so at a lower rate than until now, according to the market monitoring that has been carried out by Standard & Poor's Global Ratings.

Specifically, if in 2019 housing prices in Spain grew on average by 4.5%, the rating agency's forecast is that in 2020 they will not do so above 4.2%, three tenths less, and that in 2021 this increase remains at 3.6%.

And because? On the one hand, for the maturity of the cycle in which the sector is entering throughout Europe and on the other, for the difficulties in accessing housing that occur in our country after the increases that have occurred in recent years. That is, since the supply does not cover demand in specific areas of Spain, such as the metropolitan areas of Madrid or Barcelona, ​​it pulls prices up; but at the same time, being so expensive, the market slows down due to lack of access and growth is moderated.

The chief economist of S&P Global Ratings Sylvain Broyer, believes that the Spanish market " is cooling down after four consecutive years of double-digit growth" and recalls that in the last tranche of 2019 there was a significant decline in the sale of homes.

In his opinion, "the current supply does not meet" the demand that exists in areas such as Madrid or Barcelona, ​​and that further pushes upward prices "exacerbating" the difficulty of access to real estate . "In short, this should weigh on demand and price growth, despite favorable economic and financial conditions," the analyst concludes.

At European level, Broyes expects prices to continue to rise, but a "slower" pace in most countries during the next three years because real estate markets "are entering a more mature phase of the cycle " after their recovery from financial crises and the greatest difficulty in accessing homes after their price increases, according to Servimedia.

In the case of Spain, it estimates that consumption "will continue to be the main contributor to economic growth," backed by job creation and wage increases, but GDP will increase by 1.7% compared to 2% last year. Despite the slowdown, he is confident that job creation will be maintained, even at lower rates, and that it "will support the demand for homes by households" along with rising wages. It will also encourage interest in acquiring housing the existence of a mortgage offer at historically low rates.

Sector Stabilization

Also from the Solvia real estate company there is a certain stabilization of the housing market in Spain. According to the report made public on Monday, the Spanish real estate market ended 2019 with the stability and moderation of prices, with a slight adjustment in operations, registering 558,489, or 4% less compared to the previous year, while that prices have grown by 4%, standing at an average of 1,560 / m2.

The data obtained, according to Solvia, "confirm the increasingly rational and analytical behavior of the consumer" which, together with a greater offer, have prolonged the transaction process. "That is, the buyer takes more time to analyze the different possibilities and find the home that best suits his budget."

In addition, according to the real estate agency, political instability and the entry into force of the new mortgage law have delayed obtaining financing between 30 and 50 days. Due to this scenario, the first decline in operations has been recorded since 2013, although it is expected to have been an eventual situation and resolved in 2020, recovering the growth path in the coming months.

At the regional level, provinces such as Cáceres (12%), Ciudad Real (12%) or Albacete (10%), continue in full growth of two digits. In contrast, the provinces that have experienced a greater reduction in the number of transactions have been Malaga (-13%) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (-13%).

In 2019 the price of housing has accumulated an increase of 4%, which contrasts with the growth registered in 2018 and that allowed the year to close at an average of 10%.

The price balance has come to stay

The average price of housing during the last four months has been 1,560 / m2. According to Solvia, noting a slight reduction of -1% compared to the previous quarter, which has helped to balance prices. However, despite the moderation, the largest quarterly increases have occurred in Teruel (14%), Orense (13%) and Zamora (12%). On the opposite side, we find declines such as Castellón (-7%), Asturias (-8%) and Burgos (-8%).

In global terms, Madrid , Barcelona and Guipúzcoa continue to lead the nationwide price ranking, exceeding 2,400 / m2. To these provinces are added Alava and Malaga that have registered prices above the 2,000 / m2 barrier, and which, together with the islands, are the provinces where housing has been more expensive during 2019.

However, despite the fact that the average price of housing is in most of the provinces between 900 and 1,250, we still find provinces such as Ciudad Real, Lugo or Toledo , where the price of housing does not exceed 660 euros / m2

Used housing falls 0.3% in February

The price of used housing in Spain has registered a decrease of 0.3% in February, standing at 1,752 euros per square meter, while it has registered a year-on-year increase of 3.4% compared to the same month last year, as can be seen from the last idealist real estate price index.

By communities, they lead the price drop Castilla y León (-1.3%) and Catalunya (-0.7%), followed by Galicia (-0.4%), Andalusia (-0.3%) and Aragón and Cantabria , with -0.2% in both cases, while prices remained stable in the Balearic Islands , Valencian Community , Community of Madrid and Navarra .

At the opposite extreme, there are Extremadura , which has experienced an increase of 1.6%, followed by the Canary Islands (0.6%), La Rioja and Murcia , with a 0.5% rebound in both cases.

The Balearic Islands are the most expensive autonomy, with 3,060 euros per square meter, followed by Madrid (2,796 euros / m2) and Euskadi (2,576 euros / m2), and the cheapest ones are Castilla-La Mancha (868 euros / m2), Extremadura ( 902 euros / m2) and Murcia (1,051 euros / m2).

By provinces, 22 have registered rebounds and the largest increase has been in Badajoz (+ 2.5%), followed by the province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife (+ 1.4%), Álava (+ 1.3% ), Huelva and Granada (+ 0.8% in both).

In Navarra, Madrid, Baleares and Albacete the price remained unchanged, and the biggest drop was registered in Salamanca, where the owners ask for 2.5% less for their homes, followed by Córdoba (-1.6%), Ávila , Lugo (-1% in both cases), Jaén, Teruel and Barcelona (-0.7% in the three provinces).

The ranking of the most expensive provinces is led by the Balearic Islands, with 3,060 euros / m2, and in second place is Guipúzcoa (2,969 euros / m2) and then Madrid (2,796 euros / m2), while Cuenca is the most economical province with a price of 766 euros per square meter, followed by Toledo (769 euros / m2) and Ciudad Real (804 euros / m2), reports Europa Press.

SAN SEBASTIÁN, THE MOST CARA CITY

By capital, 28 have risen in price, the most pronounced being the one experienced in Castellón de la Plana, where the expectations of the owners grew by 3.2%, followed by Cádiz, where the increase has been 1.8%, Vitoria -Gasteiz (+ 1.7%), Badajoz, Santa Cruz del Tenerife (+ 1.6% in both cases), Ourense (+ 1.3%) and Seville (+ 1%).

Huesca is, on the other hand, the market where prices have fallen the most (-2.2%), followed by Teruel and Salamanca (-1.3% in both cases), and in the city of Barcelona the price has dropped by 0 , 3% in the last month while in Madrid it has risen 0.2%.

San Sebastián is again the most expensive city in Spain by placing its price at 4,545 euros / m2, followed by Barcelona (4,104 euros / m2) and Madrid (3,725 euros / m2), while Cuenca is the most economical with its 1,042 euros / m2, followed by Ávila (1,057 euros / m2) and Lleida (1,078 euros / m2).

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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