Photographs of new warp and weft
China-Singapore Jingwei Client, March 2nd. According to data from the website of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on March 2nd, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar rose by 255 basis points to 6.9811. The median price of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0066 on the previous trading day.
On March 2nd, the US dollar index fell below the 98 mark, and the downturn of the US dollar index gave a clear boost to the yuan. Onshore yuan was reported at 6.9739 yuan against the US dollar; reflecting offshore investors ’expectations for the offshore yuan to US $ 6.9748. Last week, offshore renminbi rose 568 points, or 2.1%.
Since February, affected by the epidemic, global asset prices have fluctuated, while the RMB exchange rate has been stable. A Bloomberg report on February 26 stated that since late January, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been stable and has not experienced significant fluctuations.
Political commissar Lu, chief economist at Industrial Bank, pointed out that in February 2020, the RMB exchange rate depreciated first, stabilized, and then depreciated with global risk sentiment. The overall shock fluctuated between 6.95 and 7.05, which was in line with the previous judgment of consolidation around 7. The options implied fluctuation Be the first to rise and then fall.
Looking ahead, Lu's political commissar believes that the March epidemic continued to spread in Asia. From the perspective of a stable and effective exchange rate, the yuan is under pressure; but from the perspective of regional currency stability anchors and the relative performance of the stock market, the yuan's pressure is not great. As the transaction volume picks up, it is expected that the RMB will consolidate for a period of time with low volatility.
However, traders from foreign banks believe that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts are expected to be combined with the euro ’s carry trades to close positions, safe-haven funds are flowing to the U.S. debt, the US dollar is adjusted short-term, and the RMB follows a small rise; Lift space is still limited.
Recently, regarding the impact of the epidemic on the RMB exchange rate, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said that the current market generally believes that the impact of the epidemic on the economy is a short-term shock, and the foreign exchange market can repair itself after a brief shock. In the long term, the trend of the exchange rate depends on economic fundamentals. The fundamentals of China's long-term positive economy have not changed, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the spread between domestic and foreign currencies is still in an appropriate range. These have provided fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)