Client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei on February 26 (Wang Yongle) "Less going out, wearing a mask, washing hands frequently, and ventilating more". Affected by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the tourism industry relying on the "flow" of people suffered a greater impact. Although "cloud tourism" allows people to enjoy the scenery everywhere without leaving home, it is difficult to change the shrinking pattern of the tourism market. Most listed companies in the tourism industry underperform after the Spring Festival. Where will the stock price go in the future?

Downstream of the line, "cloud tourism" debut

In recent years, the scale of the Chinese New Year holiday tourism market has increased year by year. According to the comprehensive calculation of the China Tourism Research Institute, the total number of tourist receptions in the country during the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 was 415 million, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year; tourism revenue was 513.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. However, the sudden outbreak caused the originally expected hot season of the 2020 Spring Festival Golden Week to come to an abrupt halt, and China's tourism industry seemed to have been pressed by the "pause button".

According to China Business News, Zeng Fanwen, Executive Dean of the Cultural Industry Research Institute of Renmin University of China, stated that with reference to the data of the past three years, the total number of tourist receptions and tourism revenue during the Spring Festival in 2020 is expected to reach 450 million, and 5,500. 100 million yuan, and affected by the epidemic, most of this income will be lost.

China Tourism Research Institute predicts that in the first quarter of 2020, the number of domestic tourists will increase by 56%, and the domestic tourism revenue will increase by 69%.

After the Spring Festival, some natural scenic spots have resumed opening. As the epidemic prevention and control is currently in a critical period, many scenic spots have adopted measures such as closing some parking lots and reducing the number of traffic limiters.

In response to the shrinking of the offline tourism market, the "cloud" travel mode of many scenic spots and museums has enriched the innovative supply of online tourism products to meet market demand.

Taking the "Panoramic Palace" of the Palace Museum as an example, tourists seem to be in the very center of each palace. Accompanied by the ancient soundtrack, various angles can be seen at a glance.

Screenshot of the "Panoramic Palace" of the Palace Museum

On February 23, eight domestic museums, including the National Museum of China and the Gansu Provincial Museum, collectively launched a "cloud spring tour" mode through Taobao live broadcast. It is reported that live broadcast combines offline live broadcast, professional anchor explanation, popular science lectures and other forms to create a more unique viewing experience.

Another example is the “Traveling Jiangxi” Jiangxi Smart Tourism Platform. During the epidemic, free online guides and audio explanations for more than 300 scenic spots in Jiangxi Province were provided to netizens. In the scenic spot tour, the smart tour system can provide intelligent self-service. Scenic area information is displayed mainly in audio, video, pictures, text, etc.

Regarding the development of "cloud tourism", Zhihui founder and CEO Liu Zhaohui pointed out in an interview with the media that "the offline experience of tourism is essentially irreplaceable, and online may be used as a solution for extraordinary times or low seasons. It can make up for the incompleteness of the entire industry chain offline. "He believes that" cloud tourism "is different from on-site tourism and also has a lot of development space, such as some display cultural projects, virtual reality experiences, etc. This can be achieved through new technologies such as "cloud tourism".

Tourism listed companies generally underperform

According to WIND data, according to the industry classification of Shenyin Wanguo, there are 22 companies listed in the tourism industry in A shares. As of February 25, the total market value was 269.778 billion yuan.

WIND data also shows that there are currently 11 tourism industry companies making predictions for the full year of 2019. Although most are expected to have a positive net profit for the full year of 2019, their performance is severely differentiated. From the perspective of the year-on-year increase in the forecasted net profit, only three companies have seen positive growth compared to 2018 and have relatively large market capitalization.

Among them, China National Tourism expects to realize net profit attributable to mothers of 4.654 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 50.00%. According to the performance forecast, during the reporting period, the company continued to focus on the main business of duty-free, while benefiting from the increase in demand for duty-free goods, the revenue and gross profit of major duty-free stores have increased to varying degrees. In addition, due to the transfer of equity in subsidiaries, the company's non-recurring profit and loss in 2019 increased significantly year-on-year.

Songcheng Performing Arts estimates that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 will be 1.287 billion yuan to 1.416 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0% -10%. According to the performance forecast, during the reporting period, the company continued to launch diversified performing arts content to ensure the continued leading of the market share. Under the circumstances that some projects were adversely affected by the local large market environment, the company's overall operating performance still achieved steady growth.

In addition, five tourism companies have positive net returns to mothers in 2019 but a year-on-year decline, and the remaining three have a loss to their mothers.

In addition, affected by the epidemic, the stock prices of 22 companies mostly fell after the Spring Festival and generally underperformed the broad market over the same period.

As of the close of February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3013.05 points, an increase of 1.27% compared with 2976.53 points on the last trading day (January 23) before the Spring Festival. Of the 22 companies, 17 underperformed the market during the same period, and 14 stocks were lower than before the holiday. Among them, Lingnan Holdings fell more than 10%, CYTS, Qujiang Cultural Tourism fell more than 6%, and 5 stocks including Lijiang Tourism, Huangshan Tourism and Guilin Tourism fell more than 3%.

Tourism demand re-released in the future

It is worth noting that although the epidemic has a significant impact on the current tourism market, the industry does not believe that the tourism economy in 2020 is too pessimistic, and the benchmark expectations continue to be relatively optimistic.

Zeng Fanwen said that in the long run, as long as the epidemic situation is under control, and the government's support measures and tourism enterprises' appropriate response measures, the tourism demand temporarily suppressed by the epidemic situation will be greatly released, and the basis of China ’s tourism industry is convenient and convenient. Traffic conditions will prompt the rapid recovery of tourism. After SARS in 2003, the tourism industry returned to normal operation in the second year. At present, China's tourism industry has entered the in-depth development stage of global tourism, cultural and tourism integration, and recovery will be faster after the epidemic.

"The fundamentals of the market supporting the operation of the tourism economy have not changed, and there is a strong possibility that domestic tourism consumption will bottom out." Dai Bin, director of the China Tourism Academy, said that a special survey for urban and rural residents showed that 71.5% of the respondents Those who said they would go out for a stable period of time after the epidemic ended, and 20.7% said they would go out as soon as possible after the epidemic.

Guangfa Fund Wang Mingxu believes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic will have an impact on the short-term performance of the economy, especially in industries related to consumption, but from a year or a longer time period, the impact will be small. The suppressed demand this year, the future Can be re-released.

From the announcement of listed companies, companies in the tourism industry are also due in the market after the epidemic. For example, CYTS said that it will use its summer vacation and key projects in the second half of the year for the travel agency and scenic spots during the rest period to further enhance the competitiveness of its products and services and make adequate preparations for the rebound in market demand after the epidemic.

Caesars Tourism stated that after the end of SARS in 2003, the market demand for tourism saw a marked rebound and rapid growth. It is expected that market demand will be fully released after the current round of epidemics. The company is simultaneously formulating product strategies and resource procurement plans after the epidemic, to prepare for business recovery.

Qujiang Cultural Travel stated that after the epidemic ended, the company will immediately resume the operation of its scenic spots, hotels and restaurants, and actively carry out various cultural festival themed activities to meet the needs of tourists. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

Zhongxin Jingwei Copyright is reserved. No unit or individual may reproduce, extract or use it in other ways without written authorization.