(Combating New Crown Pneumonia) Economic War "epidemic" record: short-term events do not hinder China's overall supply chain
China News Agency, Beijing, February 24 (Reporter Pang Wuji Chen Su) China is the world's second largest economy and the most complete country in the global industrial chain. Once China's "machinery" stops, the global industrial chain will be impacted. However, some experts have recently questioned that since China's status is so important, why has the epidemic brought the Chinese economy to a standstill for nearly a month, but the global capital market is almost "unmoved"? Has China overestimated its own strength and position in the global industrial chain, and have other countries taken the opportunity to look for the alternative of the "China chain"?
What is the truth? A reporter from China News Agency interviewed 10 experts for this purpose to identify China's position on the global industrial chain and the possibility of being replaced.
——What is the truth of the “unmoved” global capital market?
"The reason why the global capital market is stable and good is based on the judgment of economic fundamentals." Peng Zhiwei, director of the Department of International Economics and Trade at Nankai University, said that the market expects that the impact of this epidemic on China will be short-term and will not change China and the world. The basic trend of the economy. In addition, from the perspective of the global economic fluctuation cycle, 2020 and 2021 are considered to be a mild period of global economic recovery, and global capital markets have good expectations.
Dong Yan, director of the International Trade Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the volume of trade was low before and after the Spring Festival. Taking inventory factors into consideration, the Chinese epidemic has not significantly affected the global supply chain. Or the reason why the international financial market's response is not obvious.
Li Huiyong, deputy general manager of Huabao Fund, pointed out that recently, in order to respond to the epidemic, countries have adopted looser monetary policies to increase liquidity. The increase in liquidity is reflected in the capital market as soon as possible. Feast. "
Li Huiyong also reminded that there is a transmission delay from economy to finance, and that the epidemic in China will definitely have an adverse effect, but it will take some time for this adverse effect to finally be reflected in financial data.
——Where is China in the global industrial chain?
Li Huiyong said that China is the world's second largest economy and the world's largest manufacturing country. Since 2000, the intensity and breadth of Chinese manufacturing have greatly increased, and China has the world's widest industry category.
"China's position in the global industrial chain is self-evident." Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that in fact, since China was affected by the epidemic, the global financial market has not been in turmoil. The performance of automobile stocks is an example. At that time, South Korea's Hyundai Motor stock fell rapidly, precisely because many parts of the car were purchased from surrounding Wuhan.
"In the pattern of global integration, the shutdown of an economy as large as China will definitely affect the world to varying degrees in the long run," said Su Peike, chief researcher of the Institute of Public Policy at the University of International Business and Economics.
He Weiwen, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China, said that the outbreak in China has impacted the German automotive industry and even the German economy. Some German media believe that the epidemic has stopped the supply chain and lost the supply from China, which may cause many German companies to stop production, which will have a huge impact on the German economy. A business survey released by the British Chamber of Commerce in China last week also showed that almost all British companies (97%) in China were negatively affected by the outbreak, and more than half of them (54%) were significantly affected.
——Will China replaced by the epidemic?
"In the short term, no other country can definitely replace China's position in the global industrial chain." Jia Jinjing, assistant dean of the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China, said that industrial transfer has replacement costs and is difficult to achieve in the short term. Unless the epidemic halts production and production in China for more than a year, it will not cause a serious blow to China's industrial chain.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, also said that the epidemic situation is only temporary, and it is not cost-effective to move the industry to move the industry in order to affect the incident in the short term. Consider the prospects up to 10 years.
Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that a country's position in the global value chain is not determined by short-term factors, but by long-term factors and determined by a country's comprehensive competitiveness. China has both quantity and quality Short-term market demand may be compensated by finding alternative suppliers, but in the long run, China ’s The position in the global value chain cannot be shaken.
"Short-term events do not hinder the overall situation of China's supply chain." Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that China has contributed more than 30% of the world's economic growth for many years, and the main one is the contribution of the supply chain. Countries such as Vietnam and India do not have the conditions to replace China's industrial chain. But resuming work and resuming production as soon as possible is a top priority for China in preventing and controlling epidemics. (Finish)