Faced with the uplifting tone of the Banque de France and Bercy in the face of the banks' too generous generosity in distributing credit, the banks have already started to tighten their conditions for accepting mortgage loans. Finished the debt ratio by more than 33% or the loans over 25 years, the less well-off households will now have more difficulty borrowing.

We knew for a few months that this would happen, the banks began to slow down their distribution of mortgage loans. We even expect a significant drop this year.

All credit brokers agree, the tap has slowed significantly since mid-January. The files are more and more difficult to pass and one expects indeed a sharp fall in the production of credit. It could reach 50 billion euros out of a total of 258 billion last year. In total, it is thought that 100,000 households could be refused a loan request this year, or 10% of the total, so this is a clear inflection.

What explains this hardening of the banks?

Quite simply the fear of the gendarme. By the end of last year, the Banque de France and Bercy had raised their voices in the face of the banks' excessive generosity in distributing credit. We know that it is an important product to attract customers and sell them other more profitable products. Suddenly, the authorities asked them to apply strict criteria. The burden of repayment must no longer exceed 33% of income, no longer question of granting a loan of a duration greater than 25 years. Not all of them have yet implemented this policy, but the brake is already tangible. In addition, rates have stopped falling. In this new context, it is obviously the least well-off households that will be affected. As for those who can afford to buy, don't delay.

Daniel Fortin replaces Nicolas Barré this Thursday, February 20, 2020.