Spain is trying against time to minimize the drastic cuts in the Common Agricultural Policy and Cohesion Funds that European institutions have put on the table for the tough budget negotiation that starts this Thursday in Brussels. The task is, perhaps, the most difficult to date. Not only for Brexit, which has left out a net taxpayer like the United Kingdom. Nor because the 'axes' contemplated in the last proposal amount to 14% and 12% in the two largest and most vital games for Spain. But also because he faces it without great and firm allies and with the strange paradox of being the fourth economy of the Union, and aspiring main actor on the board, while still a net recipient country.

Here there is no fraternity from the south, from political families or from historical friends, but "variable geometries , " as diplomatic sources point out. And the combinations do not seem very favorable. The strongest economies in the EU, all contributors, are going in the opposite direction, and those that come from behind, are direct rivals or opponents facing the 2021-2027 period. Germany is in favor not only of spending less, but of diverting money from classic items to more "modern" ones, such as the fight against Climate Change or digitalization. France wants more money for the CAP or Defense, but does not share many of Madrid's concerns. Italy is quite satisfied with the starting offer, since its net taxpayer balance is reduced even slightly. So out there, little to hold on to.

Behind, the same. Poland is, with the Eastern countries, a direct rival and much better positioned to take Cohesion aid. The Netherlands or Sweden, on the other hand, lead the revolution of the " frugal " and rich, who demand a smaller budget and an annual check ('rebate' in community terminology) that partially compensates for their contributions.

Portugal shares many of the fears, but not all the strategies. Yesterday, in Lisbon, the Secretaries of State for the EU of both governments, together with that of France , signed a joint declaration of good intentions, but not a precise action pact. So in this fight Spain is not alone at all, but neither well accompanied. It aligns in objectives on some issues with each other, but the final positioning will be a bobbin lace. The result that is intuited before the start of the 'supercumbre' points to a cut in its priorities and even to end the year as a net taxpayer, for the first time in history.

The battle that starts this Thursday and that can last until Friday night and even Saturday morning, breaking all records, has as its main reason a few hundredths. Literally. The proposal of Charles Michel , President of the European Council, is a Financial Framework (MFF) of 1,074% of Community GDP (1,095 billion euros) until 2027. The MFF for the 2014-2020 period was at 1.08 billion or 1, 16 of the EU GDP. Parliament's proposal for the coming years is to increase it to 1.3%, and its approval is necessary. That of the European Commission was 1.11%. And the requirement of the "frugal" is that it does not exceed 1%.

"The distances between positions are much sharper than in 2013," diplomats from northern Europe warn. And the most normal thing is that there is no agreement this week. There will be an exchange of blows, forces will be measured, and although the miracle is not impossible, almost everyone assumes that leaders will have to meet again next month or next.

Technically there is enough time until December 31, but there are powerful logistical, economic and political reasons to accelerate. For example, that the rivalry and frictions that are emerging between partners, and will increase much more, do not "contaminate" the parallel negotiation of Brexit, where the 27 crave for a common position. "We need a horizon as clean as possible," warns a diplomatic source.

The rhetoric is bellicose these weeks in Brussels. Tens of billions of euros are at stake for irreconcilable priorities. The resources are finite, and what goes for the farmers cannot go for innovation or Climate Change. But there is also an important part of theater, of exaggeration, of exhibition facing the gallery. To please coalition partners, voters or tractors who occupy the streets of cities in protests, as they will do this Thursday in Brussels.

The so-called "frugal" (Sweden, Denmark, Austria and Holland) are the loudest and hardest. They write stands in the international press, their leaders take pictures together and have developed their own and forceful rhetoric. "The Plan A for the European Council is not to spend more than 1% and the 'rebates'. Plan B is to not spend more than 1% and compensation checks," half-seriously affirmed jokingly diplomats frugal Anything other than that is outside their mandates, they say. And they don't care about the claims and veto threats of the Eurocamara, which are not taken very seriously.

On the other hand are the "friends of Cohesion", more numerous but have lost the advertising campaign against falcons. "There are very maximalist positions , expressed in a very simple, attractive way. But this requires a much more refined discussion. I find it very populist, it is not serious to say 1%. They say it and they don't believe it. What a laugh that is to say 1% and also checks, "reproaches a diplomatic source. "We are frugal, they are stingy," Antonio Costa, the Portuguese prime minister, said yesterday.

It is true that there are very deep differences, not short-term. And that the agreement is far away. But also that some of the distances are, in relative terms, insignificant. The frugal ones say 1% of GDP, but in reality taking into account certain regional funds, they are at 1.03%. The offer of the president of the Council is 1,074. It does not seem crazy a meeting halfway. In addition, Charles Michel has saved 11,000 million to try to make adjustments and combinations. The same goes for the compensatory checks that Margaret Thatcher first established and that others claimed later. The rich want to preserve them, but more than 20 countries advocate suppressing them. They will disappear, but the key is to negotiate if in three, five or seven years. And so everything.

The European Commissioner for Budgets, Johannes Hahn , repeated these days again and again that "if everyone is angry it must be because it is a good proposal." A sound phrase, but inaccurate. This is about nuances, not feelings. "I think maybe it takes more time and you have to give it to him. Until people are equally dissatisfied," a diplomat summed up much more fine this Thursday. And we are not there yet.

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