<Anchor>

Kwon Ae-ri, a friendly economy reporter. Kwon, there are more specific analyzes on the impact of this new corona on our economy. This week is very important.

<Reporter>

Yes. China started working again this week nationwide, but it's not normal yet. How long will this period last? This will be a big factor in our economic situation in the first half of this year.

In the case of Morgan Stanley, South Korea's GDP growth could fall from 0.8 percent to up to 1.7 percentage points in the first quarter. The range is big.

There were three scenarios. If China's plant utilization goes up fast this week, it will only drop by 1.1 percentage points in the first quarter.

This is a scenario given that the world growth rate has fallen 0.3 percentage points from 0.15. But if the Chinese return to work late, we should be prepared to drop by up to 1.7 percentage points.

The global recovery will be delayed. However, as you can see from this table, I think that the impact on Korea and Taiwan, which is particularly relevant to the Chinese economy, will be high. The two countries suffered the most during the US-China trade dispute.

Although the numbers vary slightly among global evaluators, the trend is to keep Korea's annual growth outlook lower than the beginning of the year, from as little as 0.1 percentage point to as much as 1 percentage point.

<Anchor>

The sluggish consumption has actually been expected to some extent since the beginning of the crisis, but the production disruption seems to be greater than expected to stop the Hyundai plant.

<Reporter>

Yes. The most striking difference from the 2003 SARS event is that China has become too big and a factory in the world near us.

In particular, Wuhan and Hubei are one of the major production bases in China.

This is the main stage of the famous Three Kingdoms. Many of the stories you saw in the Three Kingdoms, including the Red War, where the fate of Ubi and Jojo were divided, were unfolded here.

Why would people who wanted to take power in those days even fight in Hubei Province? It's because it's a pottery in the middle of China, so it's called the "bell button of China."

It's still the heart of China's transportation. There are so many factories that produce goods going to the world.

In particular, there are many auto parts factories, so our auto industry has stopped working or reducing plant utilization due to disruption of supply and demand.

Although we have resumed operation of our automakers little by little since yesterday (11th), the 2nd and 3rd-tier companies and small and medium-sized factories dealing with China are actually hitting bigger.

In addition to the most serious Hubei province, production is not yet normal throughout China.

For example, two of the major factories that make Apple iPhones had a 10 percent utilization rate until yesterday. Will this situation be longer?

<Anchor>

The stage of the novel Three Kingdoms was in Hubei, China. China may not be able to recover for quite some time. You've been talking about this and are you doing your best to recover?

<Reporter>

I would really like to. However, unlike China, when the situation is slightly complicated, the growth is slowing. There is much debt in the country.

In particular, after suffering from swine fever in Africa and the new corona, prices have risen soaring around China.

In this situation, it is difficult for the country to just free up money to recover. Because prices can be so irritating.

The US is also a variable. Earlier this year, the Chinese ceased trade war with the United States and decided to increase imports from the United States.

Over the next two years, about 232 trillion won, nearly 80% of Korea's annual budget, should be spent on importing American goods.

The prospect of the United States taking a look at the new corona has also come out of this view.

As we have seen before, I think the impact of this will be relatively small. So far, there aren't much factors to look at in China.

This is a difficult time for our homework, which is closely linked to the Chinese economy. Due to last year's economic slowdown, our tax revenue was less than the government spent in five years. In other words, it is negative in the household.

This year, the government publicly predicts that the gap will be wider than last year. So it's harder to deal with the new corona by releasing more money than planned by the beginning of the year.

Lowering the base rate also has an unknown effect, which will cause property price bubbles. Like SARS or MERS, it's an environment where there's a limit to loosening money and reducing interest rates.

How to fine-tune the economic policies of the corona recovery period, including the use of the budget, will be an important point for our recovery.