December economic trend index unchanged Keynote judgment is “deteriorating” for 5 consecutive months 16:12 on February 7
The Cabinet Office released the "Business Trend Index" last December, and the index showing the current economic situation was unchanged from the previous month due to a drop in shipments of cars and motorcycles. As a result, economic conditions have been worsening for five consecutive months, indicating a high possibility of a recession.
The economic trend index for the last December announced by the Cabinet Office was 94.7, with the consensus index indicating the current state of the economy set to 100 in 2015, unchanged from the previous month.
In this case, statistics on corporate production activities rose due to a recovery in production of display manufacturing equipment and excavators, which had been stalled by the typhoon last fall.
On the other hand, shipments of passenger cars and motorcycles fell, and sales of winter clothing and heating equipment did not increase due to the effects of the warm winter, resulting in a decrease in retail sales.
As a result, the economic trend judgment, which is mechanically derived from the movement of the index, was “deteriorated”, indicating that the possibility of a recession is high.
This is the fifth consecutive month of “deterioration”.
On the other hand, the government maintains its economic judgment that it is "recovering moderately" in the "Monthly Economic Report", which shows official economic perception, and the judgment is different from the economic trend index.