<Anchor>

Kwon Ae-ri's friendly economy starts. Reporter Kwon: Did you analyze whether the house prices in Seoul were bubbling, especially in Gangnam and Yongsan?

<Reporter>

Yes. Yoon Sung-hoon, a senior researcher at the Insurance Research Institute, has published a report claiming that the sales and charter prices of apartments in Seoul have been analyzed since the early 2000s.

I'm going to introduce you today (3 days) because there are some aspects that you can refer to to understand the situation of the Seoul real estate market.

The standard for determining the house price bubble is the price of October last year, just before the 12/16 measure.

Gangnam and Gangdong, Seocho, Songpa. So-called Gangnam 4 district. Seongdong-gu, Yangcheon, and Yongsan-gu were the 7 best places with a lot of bubbles at home.

Next, Gangseo, Gwangjin, Dongjak, Mapo and Yeongdeungpo, Jung-gu. This is not the same as the seven spheres we saw earlier, but the next one is the bubble.

Nowon, Dongdaemun, Seodaemun, Seongbuk, and Eunpyeong-gu are the third group. There's a little bit of foam. In other words, apart from Gangbuk, Guro, Geumcheon, Gwanak, Dobong, Jongno, and Jungnang-gu, Seoul's apartment prices are all bubbly.

<Anchor>

What exactly does the bubble say here?

<Reporter>

The bubble, defined by this report, means a long-term unreasonable price because of expectations that house prices will continue to rise.

In particular, I looked at the long-term standard for more than a year. How was the reasonable price level judged, based on the charter price.

Compared to how much house prices have slumped over a period of time,

If there is no difference in the charter price and the price of the house changes too quickly during the same period and it has been observed for more than a year, then the formula for judging "Oh this is a bubble" is compared to the bubble level.

Based on this standard, housing prices in Seoul started to rise in 2014, but in 2017, bubbles began to rise.

Gangnam and Yongsan started to bubble up in April 2017, the fastest ones were Seocho, Songpa, Yangcheon, Yeongdeungpo, and Gangdong-gu. Now, in the case of major districts in Seoul, the bubble lasts at least two years and two months.

The government is now applying a so-called tweezers to the cap on private land for sale. Strikes applied to each area, and the area of ​​application was expanded once.

In this report, we determined that the bubbles that we determined to be bubbled now generally correspond to this tweezers area.

<Anchor>

So this report says that the bubble will fall out someday?

<Reporter>

Yes. The report analyzes that the decline is greater in the future. In fact, there are examples that you can refer to in the not too distant past.

In 2006-2007, apartment prices in Seoul rose terribly. As you can see from the table you've seen, it's actually been steeper than the recent rise.

The bubble period is from May 2006 to August 2009. This lasted for three years and four months. Dan Gangnam bubbled up at the end of 2005 and analyzed that it was turned off in February 2009.

Bubbles get stuck first, but they're faster than others when they're off. The financial crisis that everyone knows in the second half of 2008 was the biggest reason for the bubble to disappear. And it seems that the new apartments were supplied to Jamsil and Banpo at the time.

Since then, many of you may have remembered it until 2013, and the price of houses in Seoul, especially Gangnam, had been declining or stagnant as much as there was talk of a general downtrend.

No matter how economic, house prices are psychological. There is a limit to what a price can last for a period of time, the real value, or the irrational price that differs too much from the intrinsic value, can be a bubble that turns off when a certain shock or variable occurs.

Now, the recent trends shocked the median price of Seoul apartments in late January and the price of homes in Seoul for the first time exceeding 900 million won.

But at the same time, the prospect of a rise in house prices for the first time in 11 months. Although it is still uphill, Seoul's sales have risen sharply, as you can see now. The rise of the metropolitan area and the five major metropolitan cities also slows down.

The situation is likely to be a burden on tenants as the charter price continues to rumble and the anti-war trend is on the rise. And this, too, can eventually be a factor in rising house prices.

We need to keep an eye on this, but the report says that the price of Seoul homes is more declining now.

<Anchor>

According to this report, the bubble might drop and the bubble might not fall again.

<Reporter>

Yes, it is.