GDP drastically negative forecast Private consumption firm February 3 6:14 due to consumption tax hike
Regarding GDP = gross domestic product from October to December last year announced on 17th of this month, private research firms are increasingly forecasting that private consumption will fall due to the increase in the consumption tax rate and fall sharply to minus. I am.
Forecast of GDP growth from October to December last year, compiled by 10 companies including private research companies, was minus 0.9% to minus 1.1% compared to the previous three months in real terms excluding price fluctuations. Was.
If this were to be continued for one year, the annual rate would fall from -3.5% to -4.4%, and all 10 companies predicted that GDP would fall to minus for the first time in five quarters.
The reason for this is that, after the consumption tax rate was raised to 10% in October last year, personal consumption accounted for more than half of GDP due to a decrease in sales of home appliances and automobiles, as well as the effects of typhoons and warm winters. Is depressed.
In addition, exports were sluggish on the back of the slowdown in the global economy, and corporate capital investment also declined.
However, both forecasts suggest that the negative margin will be smaller than the previous three months of GDP immediately after the consumption tax rate was raised six years ago.
On the other hand, in the next three months from January, the outlook for the economy is likely to be lower due to the slowdown of the Chinese economy due to the spread of the new coronavirus and the decrease in the number of tourists visiting Japan. Some have expressed concern about this.