The decline continues for unemployment. According to figures from Dares published on Monday, the number of people registered with Pôle emploi and required to look for a job (categories A, B, C) stood at 5.44 million people in the fourth quarter of 2019 in mainland France.
“The number of job seekers in category A fell by 1.7% (–55,700) this quarter and by 3.1% over one year. The number of people in short reduced activity (category B) decreased by 3.3% compared to the previous quarter and that of people in long reduced activity (category C) decreased by 0.5%. In total, the number of job seekers in categories A, B, C decreased by 1.6% this quarter (–87,700) and 2.9% over one year, ”notes Dares.
A CICE effect?
This is the consequence of dynamic job creation and greater than the increase in the active population: INSEE expects 263,000 net job creations over the year, including 215,000 in the commercial sector against 230,000 in 2018 .
“These creations were stronger than what growth (expected at 1.3%) let us expect. We need more jobs for the same production, "said Wednesday the director of the Dares (statistics department of the Ministry of Labor) Selma Mahfouz, before the Assembly's finance committee.
In particular, the transformation of the CICE into reductions in employer contributions in early 2019 "would have contributed to enriching the growth of around 30,000 jobs" according to INSEE. According to Acoss (the Social Security bank), hiring declarations of more than a month reached their highest level in 2019, even if they "fell" 0.8% in the last quarter.
Slowdown in 2020?
For the first half of 2020, INSEE forecasts slower growth in job creation but still higher than that of the active population. The unemployment rate should drop to 8.2% in mid-2020, its lowest level since the end of 2008.
Recalling Monday that President Emmanuel Macron had set the goal of arriving at 7% at the end of his five-year term, the Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire wished on Franceinfo to be "even more ambitious". “My goal is full employment. I don't know when, if it's 2025 or a little later. That is to say around 5%, that must be our shared objective, "he said.
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