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The social crisis is worsening in Lebanon. In recent days, banks have been targeted by demonstrators in the context of draconian restrictions imposed on financial withdrawals. Analysis by Samir Aita, Syrian economist, president of the Circle of Arab Economists.
RFI: Why are banks attacked in Lebanon in this way?
Samir Aita : The banks have illegally followed a procedure where people cannot withdraw their money. This is equivalent to declaring bankruptcy of the banks. The authorities say: it is none of our business. And people are limited to taking, depending on their bank, between 200 and 400 dollars per week while they have their assets and they have a lot of dollar deposits in banks. In addition, the dollar exchange rate fell from 1,500 to 3,000 pounds per dollar. It is a situation where people panic about the value of their assets and how they are going to be able to live with the goods or money they own and which the banks refuse to give them.
What can Lebanese who feel betrayed do?
From a legal point of view, normally you can go to a judge and, if the bank doesn't deliver your money, declare bankruptcy. But no judge tries or dares to do it because the judicial authorities in Lebanon are not independent. These are the normal people who pay the financial crisis in Lebanon when they hear rumors or information through the media and social networks according to which the big depositors who constitute 70% of the Lebanese deposits manage to withdraw their money and to make it flee in Switzerland or elsewhere.
What can be the consequences for the Lebanese economy from the moment when people cannot withdraw money and therefore can no longer consume ?
It is a drop in economic activity and therefore a loss of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the magnitude of which is unknown. It has been going on since October. But beyond that, it is the bankruptcy of the banking system that the authorities of both the Central Bank and the government cannot manage. We know that some banks are on the verge of bankruptcy or technically bankrupt, which the Lebanese economic system cannot bear. There are many banks in Lebanon, they wanted to merge to be able to absorb the deficits, but nothing is done. We are left with a completely illegal system. We eat the savings of small savers or even the wages of people who fail to withdraw.
Can there be more regional consequences due to this social and financial crisis in Lebanon?
Yes, there is a very immediate consequence on Syria. It is estimated that a third of deposits in Lebanese banks are Syrian deposits. In Syria, there are the American sanctions. Lebanon was the only lung through which Syrians and even UN agencies bought essential goods. Today, imports of Syrians and aid given by the United Nations are almost stopped. This situation means that the Lebanese will tighten their belts, but there is also a risk of famine in Syria because of this.
Interview by Bruno Faure