On Thursday, January 9, the US dollar on the Moscow Exchange fell 0.1% to 61.1 rubles, and the euro fell 0.08% to 67.9 rubles. At the same time, after the end of the holiday weekend, the Central Bank lowered the official dollar exchange rate (as of January 10) by 67 kopecks to 61.23 rubles. The official exchange rate of the euro was reduced by 1.32 rubles to 68.05 rubles.
Since the beginning of 2020, the ruble appreciated by almost 1.5% against the dollar and 1.9% against the euro. Interviewed by RT experts associate the appreciation of the national currency with a record increase in oil prices. So, on January 6, for the first time since May 2019, the cost of raw materials of the Brent reference brand exceeded $ 70 per barrel.
Oil quotes began to grow after the aggravation of relations between the United States and Iran. On the night of January 3, the US military launched a missile attack on the outskirts of Baghdad, which killed Iranian General Kassem Suleimani. In response, on the night of January 8, Iran attacked the location of US troops in Iraq.
“Oil prices have risen because of fears of possible interruptions in supplies from the Middle East. At the same time, market participants do not yet believe in the great US-Iranian war. According to investors, the current aggravation of the conflict is mainly due to internal political reasons in the United States, in particular the upcoming Senate consideration of the impeachment of Donald Trump. At the same time, Trump himself also ruled out the military scenario, ”said Sergey Suverov, senior analyst at BCS Premier, in an interview with RT.
In his official address to the nation, the head of the White House did not announce any retaliatory military action against Iran, but promised to introduce new sanctions against the Islamic Republic. After the speech of the American president, oil prices returned to the level of $ 65-66 per barrel.
However, analysts still admit another rise in quotes in the near future.
“Until the end of January, the price of Brent crude oil can be traded in the corridor of $ 64-71 per barrel,” Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, said in an interview with RT.
At the same time, the influence of oil prices on the ruble is limited by the budget rule, which stipulates that, during the rise in price of hydrocarbons, the Ministry of Finance buys foreign currency and thereby puts pressure on the ruble. Moreover, in the event of a collapse in the energy market, the ministry ceases operations - and pressure on the ruble weakens. As a result of such actions, the dependence of the national currency on oil prices is reduced.
Recently, the effect of the budget rule has already weakened the relationship between the ruble and oil, but currency market players sometimes react to sharp changes in commodity prices. However, for the time being, the stable situation in the Russian economy remains the determining factor for the ruble. This was in a conversation with RT, said General Director of IK Oriole Capital Andrei Khokhrin.
“Most likely, the Russian currency has not yet completed the strengthening phase. Until the end of January, we can expect a depreciation of the dollar to 60 rubles, and the euro to 66 rubles. Judging by such comparative parameters as Russia's debt burden and the ratio of the Central Bank's key interest rate to inflation, the ruble remains underestimated against the base currencies, ”Khokhrin said.
- RIA News
- © Sergey Kuznetsov
Financial optimism
The rise in oil prices had a positive effect on the Russian stock market. So, since the beginning of January, the Mosbirzhi index grew by 1.7% and for the first time in the entire observation period exceeded the mark of 3123 points.
“Oil prices also influenced the mood of investors in the Russian securities market, pushing the Mosbirzhi index to new historical records. Until the end of the month, the situation may continue, as players await the conclusion of the first phase of a trade deal between the US and China. As a result, the Mosbirzhi index can gain a foothold at the levels above 3,100 points, ”said Sergey Suverov.
Natalia Milchakova believes that investor optimism will be supported by dividend expectations and optimistic earnings forecasts for major Russian companies. According to Andrei Khokhrin, in the first quarter of 2020, the Mosbirzhi index can additionally grow by 10% - up to 3400 points.
Note that the aggravation of relations between the United States and Iran provoked a record increase in gold prices. On January 8, the cost of precious metal reached its maximum level over the past seven years and exceeded $ 1,600 per troy ounce.
At the moment, gold quotes have slightly decreased - up to $ 1550. According to Sergei Suverov, in the near future, price dynamics will depend on the further development of US-Iranian relations. So, in the event of aggravation of the conflict, investors will begin to actively buy metal as the most reliable means to save money.
According to the interlocutor of RT, now gold accounts for about 20% of Russia's reserves, so the possible rise in price of metal can further increase the value of the country's financial reserve.