The Dubai Economy expected that the real GDP growth in Dubai would recover to 3.2% during 2020, and reach 2.1% at the end of 2019, as a result of the expected positive impact of hosting the Expo 2020 Dubai on the economy, and the existence of favorable global and regional conditions, despite There are a number of risks that can slow growth.
Sector growth
The annual report of Dubai Economy revealed that all seven major economic sectors contributing to the gross domestic product of the Emirate of Dubai achieved growth in real terms in 2018, with the exception of the manufacturing sector, which fell by 0.3% due to the slowdown in external demand, after growing by 2.3% in 2017 , While the retail and wholesale sector grew by 1.3%, which is higher than the 0.9% achieved during 2017.
The report expected that all major sectors will witness positive growth in added value during the years 2019 and 2020, especially in the area of accommodation and food services, which is expected to grow by 6.6% as a result of the influx of international visitors to the Expo 2020 Dubai.
Inflation rate
The inflation rate in Dubai was 1.5% during 2018, down from 2.1% in 2017, while total employment in Dubai has continuously increased since 2010 to reach 2.78 million workers during the past year.
The report pointed out that Dubai's economy is very open, which led to an increase in the total value of foreign trade that includes Dubai exports and imports to 1.3 trillion dirhams in 2018, despite the slowdown in the growth of trade in the global economy.
Overhead
The report pointed out that the financial policy in Dubai was expansionary during the past year, as the current public expenditures increased steadily during the period from 2006 to 2019, increasing from 4.8% of GDP to 10.9% in 2019, but capital expenditures also increased The result of the investments related to the "Expo" exhibition, and the need to face the slowdown in the economy resulting from the decline in domestic and domestic demand.
The report quoted estimates by the consultancy Ernst & Young that a total amount of 40.1 billion dirhams will be invested as a result of the establishment of the Expo 2020 Dubai in event assets and infrastructure projects, most of which will be preserved for future use.
The study estimates that the multiplier effect on the long-term investment related to the exhibition will contribute an added value to the UAE economy, totaling 122.6 billion dirhams from 2013 to 2031.
The growth of the manufacturing sector
The Director General of Dubai Economy, Sami Al Qamzi, said, “The cabinet’s adoption of the Emirates policy for advanced industries reflects the eagerness of the leadership and the continuation of its endeavors to transform into an economy based on innovation and knowledge and consolidating the country's position on the list of industrialized countries.
He added: «This policy will contribute to consolidating the strong results achieved by the national economy in various sectors, and when we take the Emirate of Dubai as a model, we find that the gross domestic product of the Emirate achieved growth of 2.1% for the year 2019, while it will rise to 3.2% and 3.0% in the two years 2020. And 2021, respectively, supported by the growth of the manufacturing sector, which grew by 1% in 2019, and is expected to increase by nearly three times in 2020 to record 3.1%, and its growth rate will reach 3.3% in the following year.
He stressed that this policy is in line with many industrial strategies in the country, including the "Dubai Industrial Strategy 2030", which aims to make the emirate a global platform for industries based on knowledge, innovation and sustainability. Together, these efforts will lead to the growth of our industries and their integration with other sectors and enhance the investment attractiveness of the state.
Sami Al-Qamzi. From the source