- INE: The sale of housing softens its fall to 12% in September
- Sector. Alert for the stagnation of the 'brick'
The house continues to leave figures that give a dimension of the busy summer that has left the market behind. Political uncertainty, economic slowdown and, above all, the impact of the new Mortgage Law have proved to be definitive factors for the moderation of the sector in recent months, especially in terms of transactions. However, despite the slowdown, the sector believes that they will save a fundamental objective: maintain the level of 500,000 operations at the end of the year.
Until September, 384,813 home sales had been closed in Spain, after that month the operations registered a 12% year-on-year fall, according to data presented yesterday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
So far this year, the number of transactions has fallen by 3.2% compared to the same period of 2018. In total figures, up to September, 12,912 operations have been initialed less than in the first nine months of the previous year, something not worries too much in the sector.
"It is possible that during the next months we will still register some year-on-year fall, but if we continue with the pace of operations close to 40,000 monthly sales, we will close 2019 with a figure close to 500,000 sales transactions with which the previous year was closed," explains Ismael Kardoudi , director of Studies and Training at Fotocasa.
Ferran Font , head of Pisos.com Studies, also does not believe that the symbolic figure will be lost and highlights that, "for the first time, the operations accumulated during 12 months are less than the same period of the previous year, although they defend the 500,000 sales with ease. "
In the same line is Fernando Encinar, head of Idealist Studies, who believes that "most likely" is that, once the effect of mortgage law has been overcome, operations will grow back "smoothly" to 510,000 or 520,000 homes sold in 2019.
The decrease in September, although bulky, is below the 21% recorded in August and is largely explained by the drop in operations on used homes by 10.1%, to 31,568 transactions, and by the decrease in 20.1% in the sale of new homes, up to 6,427.
By regions
As for the geographical distribution, last September the largest number of home sales per 100,000 inhabitants occurred in Valencia (151), Murcia (135) and Balearic Islands and Madrid (111 in both cases).
Andalusia was the region that carried out the most housing operations in the ninth month of the year, with 7,307 sales, followed by Catalonia (6,061), Comunidad Valenciana (5,939) and Madrid (5,766).
All autonomies reduced their home sales in September except Aragon and Murcia, which increased by 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively. The largest interannual setbacks were recorded in Asturias (-27.5%), La Rioja (-25.2%) and Navarra (-22.6%).
Prices
The other side of the moderation of the residential sector is given by prices. According to the Real Estate Registry Statistics of the College of Registrars corresponding to the third quarter of the year, the price of homes for sale rose 7.7% nationwide with respect to the same period of 2018.
According to the Repeated Sales Housing Price Index (IPVVR) prepared by the College, the price increase has been slowing down during this year, from 8.7%, in the first quarter, to 8.3% , in the second, and 7.7%, in the third.
However, according to the institution, the current rate is still high "from the point of view of the evolution of economic activity in general and of wages, in particular." In his opinion, an additional moderation could mean "a favorable factor for maintaining activity levels (sales) similar to those of most quarters of the last two years."
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