- Budget Plan: Sánchez's 'miracle': the Government ensures that the labor market will behave better than ever
- Forecasts: Brussels cold water jar to the Government: its growth forecast for Spain will sink four tenths today
The European Commission denies that Spain will create 350,000 jobs next year, as assured by the Government of Pedro Sánchez in the stability plan sent to him last October. In that document, the Executive stated that the employed population, measured in full-time equivalent employment, will rebound 2%. The figure was very surprising, since it would mean that employment will grow more than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and would represent a whole feat for the Spanish economy.
And so much so, that Brussels has knocked down this week that prodigy foreseen by the Government and, in the same document in which it significantly reduces the expected economic growth for Spain, warns that employment will pick up 1%, that is, half as pointed out by the Executive .
The differences between the estimate included in the budget plan and that of the Commission begin, in fact, already this year although with a difference that is still minimal: a growth of 2.3% compared to 2.2%. But by 2020, the Government argues that employment will hardly accuse the economic slowdown, and this is where the divergence with Europe occurs. "The labor market began to lose strength during the third quarter of 2019, in line with the cyclical slowdown," says Brussels, adding: " Job creation is expected to continue but at a weaker pace, especially in 2020 and 2021 ».
In this context, the European document reflects the above-mentioned growth of 1% for employment, which would amount to just over 180,000 jobs and would obviously stay far from the Executive's forecast .
Regarding the evolution of the unemployment rate, Brussels also contradicts the Government's numbers, which states that in 2020 the average rate will already be 12.3%. The Commission, on the other hand, expects that the figure will be 13.3% this year and will fall back to 12.8% the next. Or put another way, that even in 2021 will not have been fulfilled what the Government says will be achieved next year.
The reverse of Europe, moreover, is in line with what the Bank of Spain estimated already in September, when it warned that the labor market was slowing down significantly. "The rate of job creation has been reduced by half since May," they said from the supervisor, with special emphasis on "the slowdown in the summer months was somewhat more intense than expected." As a result, the Bank reduced its estimates for unemployment to figures that are now almost fully coinciding with the Commission, although Europe believes that the slowdown in the pace of creation will be somewhat more intense.
The Government ignores the warning
In what also coincide the forecasts of Europe and the Bank of Spain is the fact that both have been totally ignored by the Government. When the Bank made its public, the acting Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, rejected a job slowing down. And after meeting the community, which were advanced by THE WORLD last Wednesday, Calviño said that they are "very aligned" with those of the Government , and find that Spain is growing above the EU average and is still in a «Expansive phase of the cycle».
This was stated yesterday by the head of Economy in Seville, where he participated in a meeting with businessmen. In statements collected by Europa Press, he noted the notable moderation in the labor market anticipated by Brussels and resorted to the usual argument of the Executive: "The growth rates this year and the next will be much higher than the EU average" and "nobody He sees a crisis in the short term, as the Commission has confirmed, ”he said.
Calviño also took advantage of his stay in the hometown of María Jesús Montero to defend his relationship with the Minister of Finance. Since his arrival in Madrid, Montero has gained a lot of weight in the Executive, even leading the negotiations with Podemos to try to form a Government. But this week, the acting president and socialist candidate, Pedro Sánchez, announced in the electoral debate that, if he manages to form a new Executive, he will appoint Calviño as economic vice president.
The announcement raised many questions about how Montero will have been taken to give explanations to Calviño, and if the relationship between the two would be impaired. " My personal relationship with all ministers and, particularly with the finance minister, is excellent, " he said. But the truth is that the appointment involves limiting the powers of Montero, which will no longer be solely responsible for Budgets and fiscal policy.
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