Income contribution: the Mosbirzhi index exceeded 3,000 points for the first time in history

At the auction on Thursday, November 7, the Mosbirzhi index updated its historical maximum. The stock indicator grew by 0.7% and for the first time since the observation (since 1997) rose above 3,000 points.

In the middle of the day, the main growth leaders were the shares of InterRAO (2.5%), M. Video (2.44%), Surgutneftegaz (2.3%), Transneft (1.88%) and MMK (1.8%). Such data are the official website of the Moscow Exchange.

Along with the growth of the Russian stock market, the national currency also demonstrates strengthening. Thus, the US dollar fell by 0.2% to 63.7 rubles, and the euro - by 0.1%, to 70.6 rubles.

The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on November 8 amounted to 63.73 rubles per dollar and 70.55 rubles per euro.

Interviewed RT experts associate the record rise in prices for Russian companies with a general positive in the global stock market. So, global investors positively perceived the news and a decrease in trade tension between the United States and China. In the event of a deal, Washington and Beijing may begin to lift restrictions imposed in the framework of the tariff war. This was announced on November 7 by the official representative of the Ministry of Commerce of China Gao Feng.

In addition, markets continue to win back the reduction in the risk of hard brexitis. This was stated in an interview with RT by the head of the CAFT analyst group Mark Goichmann.

“It was the fears of increased trade wars and the uncontrolled consequences of Britain’s exit from the EU that kept financial markets tense for the past few months,” the expert explained.

Analysts also associate record growth in the Russian stock market with domestic economic factors. So, today investors are attracted by the high yield of securities of national companies and the low debt burden on the country's economy. About this RT told the director general of IC "Oriole Capital" Andrei Khokhrin.

“In Russia, the net public debt has already reached negative values. At the same time, the value of the shares remains relatively low - Russian securities are almost three times cheaper than American securities in terms of financial ratios - and the dividend yield remains high. Thus, if there is a demand for stock assets in the world market, Russia is one of the primary recipients of this demand, ”Khokhrin explained.

As Konstantin Karpov, an expert on the stock market of BCS Broker, noted in a conversation with RT, at the moment, the yield on Russian stocks is at historic highs and averages around 6-7% per annum. The expert associates record values ​​with the policy of the Bank of Russia.

Since June 2019, the Central Bank has been steadily reducing its key rate, and today it has lowered it to 6.5% per annum. The regulator pursues such a policy to stimulate business activity in the country and economic growth in general. In the long run, the actions of monetary authorities lead to cheaper loans, increased domestic demand and investment. As a result of lower rates, Russian companies earn high profits, and stock prices along with profitability begin to grow.

According to Karpov, the positive dynamics of oil prices also provides additional support to the shares of Russian commodity companies. At the auction on November 7, the energy source of the Brent standard brand rose immediately by 1.4% to $ 62.6 per barrel. This is evidenced by the ICE exchange in London.

Currency fortress

According to Andrei Khokhrin, since the beginning of the year, the Russian stock market has grown by almost 30%, and in the coming months may additionally add 5-10%. According to the analyst, by the end of the year the Mosbirzhi index will be in the range of 2900–3200 points. At the same time, Konstantin Karpov predicts a correction in the market after reaching new historical highs. At the same time, the expert is waiting to maintain a stable ruble exchange rate.

“Most likely, in the case of a trade between the US and China, we will see a jerk in the market, after which investors will begin to take profits. Until the end of the year, growth is still likely, while the beginning of 2020 may turn out to be weak. Another reduction in CBR rates by the end of the year will be an additional incentive for the market. Against the background of the above factors, the ruble is likely to continue to be strong, ”Karpov believes.

According to analysts, the rush demand for Russian debt securities also supports the national currency. To date, the country's government bond index (RGBI) has reached its highest level over the past 17 years and is trading above 150 points. Reducing the Central Bank rate over time will make investments in federal loan bonds (OFZ) less profitable, so market players are trying to pre-purchase securities at a bargain price. About this in a conversation with RT told QBF analyst Oleg Bogdanov.

“Until the rate reduction process is completed, we are seeing an increase in prices on the government securities market. The yield on federal loan bonds (OFZ) with a maturity of one year has already fallen below 6%. The market is ahead of the curve, and government bonds are confidently getting more expensive. This is starting to attract investors, so it supports the ruble, ”Bogdanov explained.

According to Mark Goikhman, until the end of the year, the dollar may remain in the range of 63–64 rubles. At the same time, Andrei Khokhrin allowed the dollar to drop to 60, and the euro to 70 rubles.