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Scenes of violence between protesters and security forces have shaken Lebanon since the evening of October 17, when an outburst of anger at rising taxes has turned into a serious political crisis.
On the second day of popular anger against politicians accused of corruption, Lebanon was a frozen country. From north to south, from east to west, thousands of protesters paralyzed traffic by cutting through the main arteries with dumpsters and burnt tires. Schools, banks, shops and public administration were closed, the streets were deserted, while thick clouds of black smoke, released by the fires provoked by the demonstrators, covered the skies of Beirut and the big cities.
The outburst of anger was unleashed on Thursday evening, October 17th by a Cabinet decision to impose a $ 6 a month tax on conversations by WhatsApp and other e-mail. Spontaneously, women and men of all ages began to flock to downtown Beirut, where the Grand Serail, which houses the offices of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, is located. The crowd, with no visible leaders, grew visibly and the demonstrators, accusing the political class of corruption, demanded the departure of the government and the "fall of the regime". The cancellation of this tax did not bring calm.
All economic indicators in the red
The taxation of WhatsApp is the last straw that broke the camel's back. But the great anger expressed by the demonstrators was caused by a cumulation due to the drastic and gradual degradation of living conditions due to the economic crisis. All indicators are in the red: recession, unemployment, abysmal public debt ($ 85 billion, or 150% of GDP), chronic budget deficit, balance of payments deficit, etc. In addition to all these misfortunes, over the last four weeks, there has been a shortage of dollars in a country whose economy is backed by the greenback. As a result, the Lebanese pound lost between 8% and 10% of its value on the black market, further weakening the purchasing power of the Lebanese.
To stop this downward spiral, the government has embarked on a policy of reducing public spending and increasing state revenues. In concrete terms, this has resulted in lower social benefits and higher taxes. These unpopular measures were to be coupled with structural reforms demanded by the international community to kick off the projects of the Cedre Conference held in Paris in April 2018 and during which Lebanon had obtained promises of $ 11 billion to rehabilitate infrastructure and boost investment. But the serious reforms, which require almost unanimity within the national unity government, ran up against the divergent interests of the various components of the executive power. They never came.
It is in this difficult socio-economic context that the demonstrations broke out. If, in the early hours, the protest went off without incident, violence erupted on the night of Thursday 17 to Friday, October 18 in the city center when demonstrators tried to force the roadblocks installed by the forces of the order to approach the Grand Serail, symbol of the executive power so hated.
Dozens injured
If the authorities hoped that anger would fall on Friday, they were disappointed. The mobilization was even more important and the whole country was paralyzed. The day was marked by numerous incidents that left injured people in Tripoli in the north, the second largest city in the country, where bodyguards of a former deputy, Misbah al-Ahdab, fired on the crowd taking to the streets. party the ex-parliamentarian. Balance: seven injured protesters.
But the most violent clashes erupted in the evening in downtown Beirut. Angry protesters, showered with dozens of tear gas bombs, clashed with the police, burning shops and cars, and vandalizing public property. Dozens of people have been arrested or injured and the internal security forces have reported that 24 of their members have been injured. The images broadcast live on all televisions showed scenes of incredible violence, which lasted much of the night from Friday to Saturday.
Surprised by the scale of the protest movement, the authorities appeared to be poor. Some politicians have supported the protesters' demands, more to settle old scores with the President of the Republic Michel Aoun and his son-in-law and Dauphin Gebran Bassil, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, than for the sake of fighting corruption. This is the case of the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who called on his supporters to participate " peacefully " in demonstrations " to bring down the mandate ", responsible, he said, for the deterioration of the situation. Walid Jumblatt suspects the head of state of wanting to weaken him by favoring his opponents within the Druze community in administrative appointments and other state positions.
The leader of the former Lebanese Forces Christian Militia (FL) Samir Geagea also sided with the protesters. Complaining of being marginalized by the Free Patriotic Current (CPL) chaired by Gebran Bassil, Samir Geagea found in this explosion of anger an unexpected opportunity to discredit and weaken the CPL, the largest Christian party in the country.
The attitude of Walid Joumblatt and Samir Geagea may surprise some observers as they are both represented in the government they claim the fall.
However, this enmity can be explained by a deep disagreement between these two leaders with the foreign policy options of President Aoun and Gebran Bassil, who are allies of Hezbollah and who advocate a normalization of relations with Syria by Bashar al-Assad. .
At a press conference on Friday, Gebran Bassil accused " certain parties " without naming them, of wanting to plunge Lebanon into an economic war and deflect the " legitimate " protest wave from its objectives. " I [the protesters] understand and the worst is coming if the situation does not improve ," he said, acknowledging the seriousness of the socio-economic situation.
Hariri remains, Joumblatt leaves ?
The head of diplomacy warned of the " discord " that could result from the economic crisis and proposed a series of reforms to try to revive the economy, while warning that the country has only a window a few days or it will be too late .
The principal concerned, Saad Hariri, intervened Friday early evening. In a speech broadcast live on all television channels, the Prime Minister accused his government partners of obstructing the inevitable reforms to prevent an economic and financial collapse. He gave 72 hours to the members of the government coalition to support his economic reforms. " Our partners in the government must give us a clear and definitive answer, which is convincing for me, for the Lebanese and for the international community, to show that we have all opted for reforms, to put an end to waste and corruption ", he said. " Otherwise, I will hold another speech in a very short time of 72 hours, " he warned.
Despite the pressure of the street and Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea, Saad Hariri has decided to stay at the head of the government, for at least 72 hours. But his message seems to have been understood by the Druze leader. Reacting a few hours later to the Prime Minister, Walid Jumblatt announced the upcoming departure of his government ministers. Speaking to Saad Hariri, the Druze leader said, " You stay, I leave power. I do not want to be a false witness, I prefer to be part of a calm and constructive opposition .
What was originally an explosion of anger due to growing discontent with the deterioration of living conditions has, in less than 24 hours, turned into a political tussle and, perhaps, into a government crisis. The next few hours will show if the speeches of each other will have managed to claim the street.
► See also: Lebanon: the social protest movement does not falter